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Created Fri 6th Jun 6:51pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

How much of the pop. vote will Obama receive in the 08 election?

Settled as 50% - 54.99%


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 55% or more
9%
50% - 54.99%
90%
45% - 49.99%
1%
44.99% or less
0%
Activity: H$188,577
Settled as 50% - 54.99% on Wed 5th Nov 12:38pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 12:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 55% or more: 20%, 50% - 54.99%: 30%, 45% - 49.99%: 40%, 44.99% or less: 10%

Action history:

Created Fri 6th Jun 6:51pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 7:59am PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 7:59am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 07:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 7:59am PST by destry[Admin]
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 8:41pm PST by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending results.
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 12:36pm PST by theonecalledmichael: This can settle as 50-54.99%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/
Settled as '50% - 54.99%' Wed 5th Nov 12:38pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 12:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (644)

644 predictions

4 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted 55% or more (H$100 at 8%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted 50% - 54.99% (H$275 at 92%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted 55% or more (H$20 at 7%)
4 weeks ago
rgsmith321 predicted 50% - 54.99% (H$300 at 92%)
4 weeks ago
unisus34 predicted 50% - 54.99% (H$100 at 57%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 lukeh
what about between 49 and 50%? where does that lie in this question?
posted 10 weeks ago
  2 eliminati
I think the percentages need to be edited, since a total of 3% are left out of consideration entirely: 44.01-44.99%, 49.01-49.99%, 54.01-54.99%.

I would suggest, just to make it easy, have it be:
55% or more
50-54.99%
45-49.99%
44.99% or less
posted 7 weeks ago

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