US Prez election 08, popular vote total, greater than pop. of how many countries?
In the 2004 Presidential Election there were 122,267,553 popular votes cast for President of the US: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004.
This is a very large number, larger in fact than the total population (individually), of most of the world's countries. Taking into consideration the population of the world's LARGEST countries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population, this market is asking how many countries have a larger population that the final popular vote count in this year’s US Presidential election. In 2004, the popular vote total was 122,267,553 which was greater than the population of all but the 10 largest countries’ current estimated populations.
So, by way of example at 122,267,553 votes, this is greater than the population of Mexico at 106,535,000 [# 11], but less than the population of Japan at 127,690,000 [# 10]. The correct option in this example would have been the choice that is starting as the highest initial % option @ 25%; "Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes."
Expectations are running high that the turnout for this year's election will set records for total vote count...so what do you think?
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Voided
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Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes |
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Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes |
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Less than 106,535,000 popular votes cast |
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Election does not occur for any reason |
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Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 11:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods: Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes: 1%, Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes: 4%, Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes: 15%, Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes: 20%, Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes: 20%, Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes : 25%, Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes: 10%, Less than 106,535,000 popular votes cast : 4%, Election does not occur for any reason: 1%
Action history:
Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 11:59pm PDT
more info...
Predictions (2)
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Comments (12)
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New in Politics » US Election 2008
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174 settled, 114 voided




Here are the population totals I'm using for this market, found @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
1 People's Republic of China 1,324,238,000
2 India 1,133,796,000
3 United States 304,252,000
4 Indonesia 231,627,000
5 Brazil 186,957,074
6 Pakistan 163,486,000
7 Bangladesh 158,665,000
8 Nigeria 148,093,000
9 Russia 141,927,900
10 Japan 127,690,000
11 Mexico 106,535,000
12 Philippines 88,574,614
13 Vietnam 87,375,000
14 Germany 82,244,000
15 Ethiopia 77,127,000
16 Egypt 75,498,000
17 Iran 71,208,000
18 Turkey 70,586,256
19 France (incl. overseas France)64,473,140
20 Thailand 63,038,247
Might I suggest we just edit the > to be <? I'm going to suspend since so far I'm the only one in the market. If you agree to the edit, we can just edit and then open back up.
(Sorry, just finished the speech..)
Admins can edit category options now they just don't like doing it after there is money in the market. So as long as you can stop a market early there shouldn't be problems getting some simple edits done.
But since you've already reposted, I'll ask for this one to be voided. Sorry its been such a hassle.
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