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US Prez election 08, popular vote total, greater than pop. of how many countries?

Voided

**This is a re-post, my original market contained errors.**
In the 2004 Presidential Election there were 122,267,553 popular votes cast for President of the US: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004.

This is a very large number, larger in fact than the total population (individually), of most of the world's countries. Taking into consideration the population of the world's LARGEST countries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population, this market is asking how many countries have a larger population that the final popular vote count in this year’s US Presidential election. In 2004, the popular vote total was 122,267,553 which was greater than the population of all but the 10 largest countries’ current estimated populations.

So, by way of example at 122,267,553 votes, this is greater than the population of Mexico at 106,535,000 [# 11], but less than the population of Japan at 127,690,000 [# 10]. The correct option in this example would have been the choice that is starting as the highest initial % option @ 25%; "Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes."

Expectations are running high that the turnout for this year's election will set records for total vote count...so what do you think?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes
1%
Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes
4%
Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes
15%
Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes
20%
Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes
20%
Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes
25%
Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes
10%
Less than 106,535,000 popular votes cast
4%
Election does not occur for any reason
1%
Voided Sat 7th Jun 5:29pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 11:59pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes: 1%, Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes: 4%, Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes: 15%, Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes: 20%, Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes: 20%, Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes : 25%, Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes: 10%, Less than 106,535,000 popular votes cast : 4%, Election does not occur for any reason: 1%

Action history:

Created Sat 7th Jun 6:43am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Sat 7th Jun 7:10am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Flagged by super user: Typo -- two duplicate market options (gold/brown). Changing greater than signs to less than signs should fix the problem. Please reopen after editing!
Settlement requested Sat 7th Jun 10:41am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Author has reposted. Please void.
Voided Sat 7th Jun 5:29pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 1st Nov 11:59pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (2)

2 predictions

25 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes (H$100 at 13%)
25 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes (H$100 at 11%)

Comments (12)

**reposted from original market yesterday that contained errors**
Here are the population totals I'm using for this market, found @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
1 People's Republic of China 1,324,238,000
2 India 1,133,796,000
3 United States 304,252,000
4 Indonesia 231,627,000
5 Brazil 186,957,074
6 Pakistan 163,486,000
7 Bangladesh 158,665,000
8 Nigeria 148,093,000
9 Russia 141,927,900
10 Japan 127,690,000
11 Mexico 106,535,000
12 Philippines 88,574,614
13 Vietnam 87,375,000
14 Germany 82,244,000
15 Ethiopia 77,127,000
16 Egypt 75,498,000
17 Iran 71,208,000
18 Turkey 70,586,256
19 France (incl. overseas France)64,473,140
20 Thailand 63,038,247
posted 25 weeks ago
One clarification -- I would like to keep the settlement as the above list and not make it dynamic based on what the website says in November. Does that seem reasonable VH, or had you intended to include population growth models as part of wagering?
posted 25 weeks ago
Oh wait.. isn't population of 11 countries>votes cast equal to 106,535,000>votes cast equal to Less than 106,535,000 popular votes cast (i.e. gold and brown are the same thing)

Might I suggest we just edit the > to be <? I'm going to suspend since so far I'm the only one in the market. If you agree to the edit, we can just edit and then open back up.
posted 25 weeks ago
Jenni, thank you for your two comments, yes, I would prefer that the comparison be static rather than dynamic, I'm not trying to further complicate this market by whatever new population numbers may be displayed on this web site in November, I would like to run with these exact totals please.... working on 2nd issue now...

posted 25 weeks ago
Have requested brown option changed to read...Pop. of 12 countries > # of votes, to avoid the duplication between gold & brown options.
posted 25 weeks ago
I can't fix it.. sadly my super powers are not very super.. please flag it and it will magically be fixed later today!

posted 25 weeks ago
Thanks anyway Jen, now flagged & requested correction.
posted 25 weeks ago
I'm not sure even the category editors can change the choices. I think they are limited to editing the question text and background. You might have to get this voided and recreate it yet again, VH. Great question though, even if it is proving to be a lot of work for you.
posted 25 weeks ago
Argh, ok I'll try it a third time. :P
posted 25 weeks ago
@AAA & VH - yes they can!

(Sorry, just finished the speech..)

Admins can edit category options now they just don't like doing it after there is money in the market. So as long as you can stop a market early there shouldn't be problems getting some simple edits done.

But since you've already reposted, I'll ask for this one to be voided. Sorry its been such a hassle.
posted 25 weeks ago
Thank you Jenni for your help with this!
posted 25 weeks ago
You always think up great questions! I'm impressed
posted 25 weeks ago

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