valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
How many countries have a higher population than the popular vote total in the 08 election?
of votes#There is no clear consensus on vote totals some websites are reporting 125 to 127 million, and some are reporting closer to 129 million votes. Therefore this market will be settled at 10, then resettled as 9.
Background:
This is a very large number, larger in fact than the total population (individually), of most of the world's countries. Taking into consideration the population of the world's LARGEST countries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population, this market is asking how many countries have a larger population that the final popular vote count in this year’s US Presidential election. In 2004, the popular vote total was 122,267,553 which was greater than the population of all but the 10 largest countries’ current estimated populations.
So, by way of example at 122,267,553 votes, this is greater than the population of Mexico at 106,535,000 [# 11], but less than the population of Japan at 127,690,000 [# 10]. The correct option in this example would have been the choice that is starting as the highest initial % option @ 25%; "Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes."
Expectations are running high that the turnout for this year's election will set records for total vote count...so what do you think?
Country Populations Used:
1 People's Republic of China 1,324,238,000
2 India 1,133,796,000
3 United States 304,252,000
4 Indonesia 231,627,000
5 Brazil 186,957,074
6 Pakistan 163,486,000
7 Bangladesh 158,665,000
8 Nigeria 148,093,000
9 Russia 141,927,900
10 Japan 127,690,000
11 Mexico 106,535,000
12 Philippines 88,574,614
13 Vietnam 87,375,000
14 Germany 82,244,000
15 Ethiopia 77,127,000
16 Egypt 75,498,000
17 Iran 71,208,000
18 Turkey 70,586,256
19 France (incl. overseas France)64,473,140
20 Thailand 63,038,247
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspends @ 2pm PST, just to be dramatic, many Eastern states will have forecasts by then, but the Western states will still be largely in play.
Settled
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Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes |
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Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes |
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Pop. of 12 countries > # of votes |
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Election doe not occur for any reason |
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Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2pm PST Settlement date: last Wednesday 8:11pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes: 1%, Pop. of 6 countries > # of votes : 4%, Pop. of 7 countries > # of votes: 10%, Pop. of 8 countries > # of votes: 20%, Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes: 23%, Pop. of 10 countries > # of votes: 25%, Pop. of 11 countries > # of votes: 12%, Pop. of 12 countries > # of votes : 4%, Election doe not occur for any reason: 1%
Action history:
valornhonor 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Market edited to make the market question clearer 
mork: Flagged by super user: please see comment 4 and 5. ryanj 
pixelpaws: Nine countries have a greater population than the 136.6 million votes cast. (see article's second paragraph)
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i34ao3tow5yhj2v7v24HM_wbT8JQD948LJRG0
elly: What's going on here? Can you give us more information about settlement, pls. 
pembeci: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
It will be less than 127 million. So 10 countries should be the correct outcome.
veaney: It's time for a decision ! 
destry: of votes#There is no clear consensus on vote totals some websites are reporting 125 to 127 million, and some are reporting closer to 129 million votes. Therefore this market will be settled at 10, then resettled as 9. destry: of votes#There is no clear consensus on vote totals some websites are reporting 125 to 127 million, and some are reporting closer to 129 million votes. Therefore this market will be settled at 10, then resettled as 9. destry: There is no clear consensus on vote totals some websites are reporting 125 to 127 million, and some are reporting closer to 129 million votes. Therefore this market will be settled at 10, then resettled as 9.
Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 2pm PST Settlement date: last Wednesday 8:11pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 2pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
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thomismydadComments (9)
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valornhonor
174 settled, 114 voided
Here are the population totals I'm using for this market, found @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population
1 People's Republic of China 1,324,238,000
2 India 1,133,796,000
3 United States 304,252,000
4 Indonesia 231,627,000
5 Brazil 186,957,074
6 Pakistan 163,486,000
7 Bangladesh 158,665,000
8 Nigeria 148,093,000
9 Russia 141,927,900
10 Japan 127,690,000
11 Mexico 106,535,000
12 Philippines 88,574,614
13 Vietnam 87,375,000
14 Germany 82,244,000
15 Ethiopia 77,127,000
16 Egypt 75,498,000
17 Iran 71,208,000
18 Turkey 70,586,256
19 France (incl. overseas France)64,473,140
20 Thailand 63,038,247
(and "Population of 5 countries or less > # of votes" means lower numerically ranked countries, but higher/greater votes, if I understand it correctly.)
Maybe add "population totals" to the "settlement details" ?
I know what you mean but can't explain it at 5am.
I'll flag it and suspend it so it can be amended.
I think the problem is that the question is worded with the assumption that we would select the most populated countries to achieve the total.
The way pitchedoutsideleg suggests, it would ensure this.
Thank you for your comment, I agree that your alternative wording; 'How many countries have a higher population than the vote total?' more precisely captures the comparison I'm trying to describe. My intent on this market is to compare the sheer number of votes in the US Presidential election in November, 2008 to the (static) highest populations of the listed countries. By way of example, if there are 130,000,000 popular votes casts during this election then the selection that would win would be the fifth choice, the turquoise one that reads, Pop. of 9 countries > # of votes. If an epidemic of apathy suddenly sweeps the United States and the total popular vote surprsingly only comes in at 85,000,000 votes then the winning choice would be next to last choice, the brown one. I have also requested review.
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