triathematician 
How many days will Obama maintain a lead in the Gallup daily polling?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108211/Gallup-Daily-Election-Preferences-Stable.aspx
Background:
Note that these numbers are five day averages. The settlement number is the number of consecutive days that Obama holds a lead between the June 5 poll and whenever the next poll is when he no longer leads. So the market may settle in the event of the first tie or loss.
Note that since he has already lead for two days, the least number of days possible is two. I find this one rather hard to predict. My initial estimates are based on the fact that it has been extremely rare for any candidate to lead for very long this election.
Settlement details:
As reported at http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
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Obama maintains lead for 2-4 days |
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Obama maintains lead for 5-7 days |
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Obama maintains lead for 8-10 days |
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Obama maintains lead for 11-13 days |
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Obama maintains lead for 14 or more days |
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Suspend date: Sun 22nd Jun 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 22nd Jun 4:38pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Jun 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Obama maintains lead for 2-4 days: 10%, Obama maintains lead for 5-7 days: 35%, Obama maintains lead for 8-10 days: 25%, Obama maintains lead for 11-13 days: 15%, Obama maintains lead for 14 or more days: 15%
Action history:
triathematician 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Settlement date edited to fit with the market, moved down to June 21st 
destry: Please settle. ryanj: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108211/Gallup-Daily-Election-Preferences-Stable.aspx
Suspend date: Sun 22nd Jun 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 22nd Jun 4:38pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Jun 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
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147 predictions
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Indeed, I stand corrected, no malice intended, I assure you, I just rarely see options so low, I jumped the gun w/ my comment, apologies to anyone I offended.
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