Created Mon 9th Jun 12:22pm PDT by 
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All questions » Science » Natural Disasters » valornhonor Will there be a favorable resolution to the draining of the "Quake Lake" in China before August 1 ?
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The market is just to ambiguous. Also with the recent "drainage" today how would we settle the market. We need real descriptive settlement details so that we don't get lost in ambiguity.
Background:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/09/asia/quake.php
QINGLIAN, China: Chinese soldiers used antitank weapons to blast away rocks and mud holding back waters in an earthquake-formed lake that threatens more than one million people living downstream with flooding.
The Tangjiashan "quake lake," formed when a landslide set off by the May 12 earthquake blocked the flow of the Tongkou River, has continued swelling despite the hasty digging of a diversion canal to ease pressure on the barrier.
The government was working to head off a new catastrophe at the same time as it cared for the five million people left homeless by the quake, which killed nearly 70,000 people. More than 1.3 million people live downriver from Tangjiashan.
About 120 troops of the People's Liberation Army were sent Monday to the lake to continue the draining operation, which included deepening the diversion channel and digging a second spillway.
Troops were carving a third drainage channel into the unstable dam, the state media reported Monday.
*****Some background, even though Chinese authorities and military have been aggresively working on this problem for weeks, the lake behind the landslide continues to grown faster than the now three sluices carved out to release pressure can drain it. To settle for a yes the lake would have to slowly, calmly reduce in size without a major flooding event which seems increasingly unlikely as the area continues to experience tremors and the rainy season is approaching. Although potentially catastrophic it looks more and more likely that this will not end calmly. When you look at the pictures notice how miniscule the large bulldozers look in relation to the size of the landslide. If/when this lake does breach the landslide it will likely cause flooding and loss of life downstream. I hope that this settles with a Yes, but it doesn't look promising.
QINGLIAN, China: Chinese soldiers used antitank weapons to blast away rocks and mud holding back waters in an earthquake-formed lake that threatens more than one million people living downstream with flooding.
The Tangjiashan "quake lake," formed when a landslide set off by the May 12 earthquake blocked the flow of the Tongkou River, has continued swelling despite the hasty digging of a diversion canal to ease pressure on the barrier.
The government was working to head off a new catastrophe at the same time as it cared for the five million people left homeless by the quake, which killed nearly 70,000 people. More than 1.3 million people live downriver from Tangjiashan.
About 120 troops of the People's Liberation Army were sent Monday to the lake to continue the draining operation, which included deepening the diversion channel and digging a second spillway.
Troops were carving a third drainage channel into the unstable dam, the state media reported Monday.
*****Some background, even though Chinese authorities and military have been aggresively working on this problem for weeks, the lake behind the landslide continues to grown faster than the now three sluices carved out to release pressure can drain it. To settle for a yes the lake would have to slowly, calmly reduce in size without a major flooding event which seems increasingly unlikely as the area continues to experience tremors and the rainy season is approaching. Although potentially catastrophic it looks more and more likely that this will not end calmly. When you look at the pictures notice how miniscule the large bulldozers look in relation to the size of the landslide. If/when this lake does breach the landslide it will likely cause flooding and loss of life downstream. I hope that this settles with a Yes, but it doesn't look promising.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Sat 26th Jul 12:59am PDT
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Mon 9th Jun 12:22pm PDT by valornhonor
valornhonor
Voided Tue 10th Jun 1:12pm PDT by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: The market is just to ambiguous. Also with the recent "drainage" today how would we settle the market. We need real descriptive settlement details so that we don't get lost in ambiguity.
ryanj: The market is just to ambiguous. Also with the recent "drainage" today how would we settle the market. We need real descriptive settlement details so that we don't get lost in ambiguity.
Suspend date: Sat 26th Jul 12:59am PDT
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valornhonor
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Could you clarify what you mean regarding, "a favorable conclusion"? I can think of several, "favorable conclusions", that might _not_ be what you intended in creating this question. Here are some potential conclusions, which do you consider favorable? I'm not trying to get this question voided, in fact I have a (full-disclosure) H$100 on "Yes". I'm just trying to minimize the ambiguity, and ensure the settlement reflects your intentions.
1) Lake is restored to it's normal shoreline
2) Catastrophic flood does not occur before suspend date
3) Water level in lake is declining, but the lake is not at normal level by suspend date
4) Dam bursts without catastrophic loss of life
I'd also like to point out that I think the initial odds seem quite reasonable.
Regards,
AAA
The previously free flowing river through this steep valley has been damned by a massive landslide in early May.
The "Quake Lake" is now 4 times larger than the historical amount of water there previously.
Because of the terrain and catchment area each 2mm of rainfall can result in as much as a meter of additional depth.
Upwards of a million people live downstream from this lake.
Chinese work crews and military have been toiling to try and 'bleed-off' the pent up lake without it suddenly bursting.
The discharge is not keeping up with the increase in size, mass, volume of water.
All these facts on balance seem to describe a very grave situation.
A favorable outcome in my mind would be that by the settlement date that there had been no sudden, catastrophic release of water that raced downstream resulting in a loss of life of say, at least 100 people or the entirety of one of more cities or villages. When I've examined many pictures of this lake it doesn't seem to look like a normal damned body of water, it does look like the water level could eventually crest the top of the landslide, but it may then only "spill" a portion of the lake rather than the entire lake like you would expect with a formal damn failure. The hazardous component seems to be the lack of options, the terrain is so steep, the landslide so enormous and the ability to slowly drain the lake so perilous that it seems very, very ominous.
If I have not sufficiently answered your query I can always void this. What I'm trying to forecast is this - will a large portion of the trapped water suddenly burst, flow downstream and drown lots of people and destroy cities downstream by the settlement date?
Exhibit A. Headline from official Chinese news agency - "Official: China wins "decisive victory" in main quake lake drainage" @ http://www.chinaview.cn/
Exhibit B. Headline from International Herald Tribune - "Flooding spreads more destruction in town below 'quake lake'" @ http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/06/10/asia/quake.php
Same event.
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