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How many times will Obama mention "Bush" at the Democratic Convention?

Settled as Bush referred to 7-9 times

After watching the speech, Barack Obama mentioned Bush 7 times

Background:

A variation on another question...since Obama and the Democrats will be running as much as Bush as McCain (to some degree), how many times will Obama mention Bush's name...includes references to him personally, or to his policies (Bush's actions, etc.) or any other reference to him as reported by mainstream media.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Bush referred to 3 times or less
7%
Bush referred to 4-6 times
16%
Bush referred to 7-9 times
20%
Bush referred to 10-12 times
26%
Bush referred to 13-15 times
20%
Bush referred to 15 times or more
12%
Activity: H$3,423
Settled as Bush referred to 7-9 times on Thu 28th Aug 7:58pm PDT

Suspend date: Thu 28th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 28th Aug 7:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 28th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Bush referred to 3 times or less: 5%, Bush referred to 4-6 times: 10%, Bush referred to 7-9 times: 20%, Bush referred to 10-12 times: 35%, Bush referred to 13-15 times: 20%, Bush referred to 15 times or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 10th Jun 10:55am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'Bush referred to 7-9 times' Thu 28th Aug 7:58pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: After watching the speech, Barack Obama mentioned Bush 7 times

Suspend date: Thu 28th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 28th Aug 7:58pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 28th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (37)

37 predictions

13 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Bush referred to 13-15 times (H$100 at 19%)
13 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Bush referred to 7-9 times (H$100 at 19%)
13 weeks ago
weirdbro predicted Bush referred to 4-6 times (H$50 at 16%)
13 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Bush referred to 7-9 times (H$20 at 18%)
13 weeks ago
cici predicted Bush referred to 7-9 times (H$100 at 18%)
more

Comments (4)

Bush is not Obama's competition, so I think he will mention him freely, especially when speaking of tax cuts. If he's smart though, he'll refer to McCain as my opponent and not by name. Why give McCain additional name recognition that he isn't paying for?
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 dieseldog
baybear this has nothing to do with your question. i have no problem with it. i flagged it for review so the admin (mr consistency) can tell me the differnce between this and the abortion question.
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 dieseldog
i received a good answer from the admin.
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
I will post a clarification here, so everyone can be brought up to date on why this market is runnings and another about McCain mentioning Obama. Those markets were created when Ryan was the category editor, they were created within the hubdub rules which state that markets asking about the number of times or if something is said during a speech or performance, must be cleared PRIOR to being created. Since Ryan approved these markets and is monitoring them for settlement they are being allowed to continue. Markets that are created from now on, in which require a category editor to watch a performance or speech and count the number of times something is said, or what is said, will not be allowed except on very rare circumstances, and never will be approved after the fact. Please submit any potential ideas for market that require authorization to me PRIOR to creating the market, and then we can work and see if there is a way we can allow. I will tell you that for the vast majority of markets it is just not a situation in which it is the best use of our time and resources.
posted 14 weeks ago

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