Created Tue 10th Jun 4:42pm PDT by
valornhonor
All questions » Entertainment » Movies » 
Which genre of movies produced the greatest box office receipts during 2008?
Current forecast: Comedy (85% chance
5%)
5%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Comedy with a probability of 85% (up 5% in last 1 day)
Yesterday's post proved to be too cumbersome. Now using the follwoing website for consistency/settlement purposes:
http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php
The top 9 genres on this website today, June 10th, are the ones that I'm using for this market. The initial odds reflect the YTD performance of each of these types of movies, which may change when the entire year is finalized.
Some movies fit under multiple genres and if you have a question I reccomend going to this website and clicking on the link Coming Soon link on the left margin for a description of the movies opening during the rest of 2008. For example, Harry Potter will fall under the Adventure category.
I've chosen not to include a category for multiple genres as it would become too complex.
http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php
The top 9 genres on this website today, June 10th, are the ones that I'm using for this market. The initial odds reflect the YTD performance of each of these types of movies, which may change when the entire year is finalized.
Some movies fit under multiple genres and if you have a question I reccomend going to this website and clicking on the link Coming Soon link on the left margin for a description of the movies opening during the rest of 2008. For example, Harry Potter will fall under the Adventure category.
I've chosen not to include a category for multiple genres as it would become too complex.
Settlement details:
As reported by http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php
Make your prediction!
|
|
Adventure |
|
|||
|
|
Comedy |
|
|||
|
|
Action |
|
|||
|
|
Drama |
|
|||
|
|
Thriller / Suspense |
|
|||
|
|
Romantic Comedy |
|
|||
|
|
Horror |
|
|||
|
|
Concert Performance |
|
|||
|
|
Documentary |
|
|||
|
|
Any other outcome |
|
Activity: H$57,337
Question suspends in 4 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Adventure: 25%, Comedy: 24%, Action: 15%, Drama: 10%, Thriller / Suspense: 7%, Romantic Comedy: 7%, Horror: 4%, Concert Performance: 2%, Documentary: 1%, Any other outcome: 5%
Action history:
Created Tue 10th Jun 4:42pm PDT by
valornhonor
Clarified Mon 16th Jun 8:59am PDT by
ryanj
: The figures the market relies on include DVD sales from films released in the movies in 2007 but released on DVD in 2008
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (159)
159 predictions
Comments (23)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
No related news
Related tags
New in Entertainment » Movies
More questions by
60% of previous questions settled successfully
174 settled, 114 voided
More...
174 settled, 114 voided




If you have a particular film in mind you can go to the website I mentioned under coming soon & it shows which genre it will counted under.
As you can see Adventure currently leads by over 90kk and Action is way behind. The biggest upcoming releases (IMO) fall under the following categories:
Adventure:
The Incredible Hulk
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
The sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2
Star Wars: The Clone Wars (This is a 100% CGI remake, so in other words practically a re-release. ZING!)
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Comedy:
Wall-E
Get Smart
The Love Guru
Madagascar 2: The Escape to Africa
Action:
Hellboy 2
The Dark Knight
The X-Files: I want to believe
Max Payne
Transporter 3
Punisher Warzone
The Day the Earth Stood Still
So as you can see Action is probably the winner, or close to it, from here out and comedy is shockingly light on late year releases. Adventure as a lead, stole the Hulk from Action, and gets a new HP movie and a Star Wars re-release. So my moneys on Adventure big time, since comedy seems to have few releases and action is way behind.
I don't really understand why they classified Hancock as a Drama though -- seems like it should be Action. Oh well. My money's on adventure. Go Harry, go!
@jenni - I can't figure out Hancock either, guess they are going to get more into the drama of the problems of being a super hero. It looked at first glance like an action movie.
GREATTTTTTT QUESTION Valor!!!!!!! I am soooo jealous I never thought of it, haha, YOU ROCK MAN!!!
Does " receipts" refer to Gross or Tickets?
The top 2 in both categories are very close right now, I just want to be sure of which one I should be tracking.
Thanks.
Certainly, not a problem. My intent is the rankings as reflected in the websidte, theses dollar amounts @ http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php
Please log in or join to add a comment