Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

Which genre of movies produced the greatest box office receipts during 2008?

Current forecast: Comedy (85% chance5%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Comedy with a probability of 85% (up 5% in last 1 day)

Yesterday's post proved to be too cumbersome. Now using the follwoing website for consistency/settlement purposes:

http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php

The top 9 genres on this website today, June 10th, are the ones that I'm using for this market. The initial odds reflect the YTD performance of each of these types of movies, which may change when the entire year is finalized.

Some movies fit under multiple genres and if you have a question I reccomend going to this website and clicking on the link Coming Soon link on the left margin for a description of the movies opening during the rest of 2008. For example, Harry Potter will fall under the Adventure category.

I've chosen not to include a category for multiple genres as it would become too complex.


Settlement details: As reported by http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Make your prediction!

Adventure
7%
Comedy
85%
Action
7%
Drama
0%
Thriller / Suspense
0%
Romantic Comedy
0%
Horror
0%
Concert Performance
0%
Documentary
0%
Any other outcome
0%
Activity: H$57,337
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Adventure: 25%, Comedy: 24%, Action: 15%, Drama: 10%, Thriller / Suspense: 7%, Romantic Comedy: 7%, Horror: 4%, Concert Performance: 2%, Documentary: 1%, Any other outcome: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 10th Jun 4:42pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Clarified Mon 16th Jun 8:59am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: The figures the market relies on include DVD sales from films released in the movies in 2007 but released on DVD in 2008

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (159)

159 predictions

5 days ago
sonse predicted Action (H$36 at 9%)
1 week ago
kirin predicted Comedy (H$1,000 at 82%)
1 week ago
kirin predicted Comedy (H$2,000 at 81%)
1 week ago
gtown predicted Comedy (H$20 at 77%)
4 weeks ago
kirin predicted Concert Performance (H$1 at 0%)
more

Comments (23)

  1 ryanb37
GOOd REpost i think this will be better
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
I just wish we could see what genre the upcoming releases were going to fall into. I love the question.
posted 25 weeks ago
@ destry,

If you have a particular film in mind you can go to the website I mentioned under coming soon & it shows which genre it will counted under.
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
Thank you, seems like comedy is a shoe in with get smart and wall-e both falling under that category, and the other major movies being divided among other categories.
posted 24 weeks ago
Top three as of right now: Adventure - $1,081,834,499 , Comedy - $999,799,984 and Action - $598,965,485

As you can see Adventure currently leads by over 90kk and Action is way behind. The biggest upcoming releases (IMO) fall under the following categories:

Adventure:
The Incredible Hulk
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
The sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2
Star Wars: The Clone Wars (This is a 100% CGI remake, so in other words practically a re-release. ZING!)
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

Comedy:
Wall-E
Get Smart
The Love Guru
Madagascar 2: The Escape to Africa

Action:
Hellboy 2
The Dark Knight
The X-Files: I want to believe
Max Payne
Transporter 3
Punisher Warzone
The Day the Earth Stood Still

So as you can see Action is probably the winner, or close to it, from here out and comedy is shockingly light on late year releases. Adventure as a lead, stole the Hulk from Action, and gets a new HP movie and a Star Wars re-release. So my moneys on Adventure big time, since comedy seems to have few releases and action is way behind.
posted 24 weeks ago
Oh BTW, I left off the list some big release that didn't fall under those three categories becuase one or two movies will obviously not catch up the genre to Adventure and Comedy. Notable movies left off are such titles as The Happening (Drama Suspense) and Hancock (Drama). So if you think another movie will make an impact check it out ourself ;)
posted 24 weeks ago
That's a very helpful analysis. I did a haphazard job of looking through the upcoming movies, but that's MUCH better!!

I don't really understand why they classified Hancock as a Drama though -- seems like it should be Action. Oh well. My money's on adventure. Go Harry, go!

posted 24 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
@ironman - great job. I cashed out at a loss after seeing Harry on the list, I forgot all about Harry, we know that is huge opening.

@jenni - I can't figure out Hancock either, guess they are going to get more into the drama of the problems of being a super hero. It looked at first glance like an action movie.
posted 24 weeks ago
yeah i agree I pictured Hancock as Comedy with action, never occurred to me as a drama.
posted 24 weeks ago
Man if Hancock is a Drama, then NOOOO WAY it'll open with $76 mil or more! What a weird genre for that pic?!?!

GREATTTTTTT QUESTION Valor!!!!!!! I am soooo jealous I never thought of it, haha, YOU ROCK MAN!!!
posted 24 weeks ago
  11 ironman288
yeah i think Hancock is maybe an action drama with some elements of comic relief (?), just goes to show how important it is too have a good advertising campaign, we all know who the star is and sort of what its about but we have no idea what genre it's even trying to be... If it's really a drama its going to make less than it should becuase every joke in the movie is already run in the trailor and people will be disappointed when they came to laugh and didn't.
posted 24 weeks ago
  12 sdchargers[Power User]
I love the question, and am invested already, but after re-checking can I get a little more clarification?
Does " receipts" refer to Gross or Tickets?
The top 2 in both categories are very close right now, I just want to be sure of which one I should be tracking.
Thanks.
posted 24 weeks ago
  13 sdchargers[Power User]
The only reason I ask is because most movie questions have pertained to the gross, but by mentioning receipts as in question I think of tickets.
posted 24 weeks ago
@ sdchargers,

Certainly, not a problem. My intent is the rankings as reflected in the websidte, theses dollar amounts @ http://www.the-numbers.com/market/Genres2008.php
posted 24 weeks ago
  15 ironman288
why is adventure so low again? someone must really like comedy's chances against harry potter a lot more than i do.
posted 24 weeks ago
  16 ryanb37
well click was a drama i think hancock has a lot of soul searching in it
posted 24 weeks ago
  17 ironman288
yeah but click was a major disappointment becuase every thought it was going to be a comedy. The commercial was like the one for Hancock, where the comic relief moments are shown as being representative of the movie when they aren't.
posted 24 weeks ago
  18 ryanb37
The sight list the Bee movie in comedy that was relised Novemver 2007 how is that 2008 movies?
posted 24 weeks ago
@ ryan37, I had the same question, which is one of the reasons I went the through to the trouble of listing just the 2008 releases in the first vestige of this market, but then by consensus it was decided to go with THIS website as a settlement vehicle. If you go to the website you'll see that they are including all movies that are being SHOWN between 1/1/08 and 12/31/08, this includes a few, such as B Movie that came out late in 2007.
posted 24 weeks ago
  20 ironman288
so can this settle before HP finishes it's run late February or something? it opens in November and will stay in theaters a long time probably.
posted 23 weeks ago
as market creator, here is my opinion... using calendar 2008 provides some kind of a threshold, it captures the end run of movies released in late 2007 but still showing in early 2008, and will only capture a portion of the total box office for movies that debut in late 2008 but continue into early 2009.
posted 23 weeks ago
  22 ironman288
i see so we only get to count the first, what is it 6 weeks, of the HP earnings? that's good with me, thats going to be most of it anyways.
posted 22 weeks ago
  23 ironman288
harry potter is pushed back to next year, adventure has no chance now! good thing i cashed out my biggest bet a long time ago.
posted 15 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more