valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
Where will Hillary be during the 2010 State of the Union Address?
1%)
The next likely SOTUA (State of the Union Address), will likely be given by the President of the United States in January 2010.
There is a very good chance that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC) will be seen on television during this live broadcast, but it remains to be seen whether she will be a participant, a spectator, or perhaps as a cabinet member or even a commentator, or maybe just as a VIP guest of someone. For purposes of this question I'm talking ONLY about the time starting with House of Representative's Sergeant-at-Arms' introduction of the President through the closing phrase by the President, typically, "...and God Bless the United States."
This market is not concerned about the run-up to the address or the following commentary, only the strict time frame described above.
Here are the acronyms I'm using in this market:
POTUS - President of the United States
VPOTUS - Vice President of the Unied States
SOTUA - State of the Union Address
SCJOTUA - Supreme Court Justice of the United States
B&JSCACD - Ben & Jerry's Stephen Colbert's AmeriCone Dream flavored ice cream treats.
OK, just kidding about that last one.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Common sense caveats...If HRC is there, in any other capacity, or as a private citizen, or an ambassador or ANYTHING else, this is option # 6.."Seen live in the chamber in any other capacity."
If for some reason HRC cannot attend due to death, illness, absence or ANY reason, this will be the next to last option, "Not shown live during the broadcast - any reason."
In the event Senator Clinton changes her name, for any reason between now and the SOTUA, it is understood who she is, for example if President Bill Clinton passed away and Hillary remarried and took another last name or reverted to her maiden name or anything else that resulted in her formal name being something other than Hillary Rodham Clinton, the market would not automatically disqualify.
Make your prediction!
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Gives address as President |
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Seen as VP behind President |
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Seen as Supreme Court Justice |
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Seen as Cabinet Member |
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Seen as Senator or House member |
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Seen live at chamber in any other capacity |
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Seen giving live commentary (Not at address) |
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Seen live without commentary (Not at address) |
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Not shown live during broadcast for any reason |
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Address doesn't occur during Jan. 2010, any reason |
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Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
Initial likelihoods: Gives address as President: 3%, Seen as VP behind President: 5%, Seen as Supreme Court Justice: 7%, Seen as Cabinet Member: 9%, Seen as Senator or House member: 51%, Seen live at chamber in any other capacity: 9%, Seen giving live commentary (Not at address): 7%, Seen live without commentary (Not at address): 5%, Not shown live during broadcast for any reason: 3%, Address doesn't occur during Jan. 2010, any reason: 1%
Action history:
valornhonor 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: I have edited the market to make it clearer for users to understand.
Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...
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71 predictions
onedave
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bigken1Comments (13)
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valornhonor
174 settled, 114 voided
I'm not sure why you added this option to your latest revision: "HRC shown live, during speech, w/o commentary"
It seems like it's not mutually exclusive with at least five of the other options.
Trying to pin Hillary Clinton down has proved difficult to many ...
;-)
The next state of the union will be given, without any doubt whatsoever, in 2009. There's one every year. Apparently this pattern has escaped you.
Any thoughts oh wise hubdubers?
There was no State of the Union address in 2001- did this escape you? :-)
"Sometimes, especially in recent years, newly-inaugurated Presidents have delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress only weeks into their respective terms, but these are not officially considered State of the Union addresses. The address is also most frequently used to outline the President's legislative proposals for the upcoming year. For these reasons, a State of the Union address is generally not given in years in which a new president is inaugurated.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union>
I guess the major television networks and I must have hallucinated this:
http://www.thisnation.com/library/sotu/2001gwb.html
Search the text yourself - the link you posted never has the words "the state of the union is strong" or anything similar. Only the page title claims to be that. Search it yourself, and compare it to every State of the Union speech given since then.
The 2001 State of the Union address should have been made by the outgoing president (Clinton), but no outgoing president has made a State of the Union speech since Carter delivered his written one in 1981.
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