Created Wed 11th Jun 4am PDT by
kruijs
All questions » Science » Scientific Discoveries » 
What will be the result of the switching on of the Large Hadron Collider?
Current forecast: Results reported without referring to damage (52% chance
21%)
21%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Results reported without referring to damage with a probability of 52% (up 21% in last 1 day)
This question replaces svenno's excellent original question with a less ambiguous version.
The Large Hadron collider (www.lhc.co.uk) was finally completed at CERN's base in Geneva in summer 2008. It is designed to consume massive amounts of energy throwing particles around a tunnel at massive speeds. (more info on CERN website)
The question is: What will happen when the "first beams are injected" AND the "first collisions" are triggered (regardless the suspend date of the question).
The original schedule called for this to occur in the middle of August:
"The cool-down schedule, which I am confident we can keep, foresees the entire LHC being cold by the middle of June, allowing the first beams to be injected soon after. First collisions will follow two months later."
(CERN Journal)
Legal issues (see http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m4944/ and http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5869/) were overcome on schedule, but a technical glitch during the final stages of the cool-down phase caused damage to the tunnel. Because of the necessity to reheat the tunnel to less inhuman temperatures to repair this, followed by a re-cooling back down to almost absolute zero, this process is expected to take a number of months.
Sadly energy costs in the make atom-smashing on this scale prohibitively expensive in the dead of winter, so the first collisions are now expected in Spring 2009 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7632408.stm)
Options are similar to the original question
Settlement details:
As reported on bbc.co.uk or other respectable news source.
Make your prediction!
|
|
"No Damage" (or similar) explicitly reported |
|
|||
|
|
"Small accident" damage to LHC and/or people |
|
|||
|
|
"Disaster" with 10 or more fatalities |
|
|||
|
|
Just Geneva destroyed |
|
|||
|
|
Just Switzerland destroyed |
|
|||
|
|
Unexpected consequences result in the end of life |
|
|||
|
|
Results reported without referring to damage |
|
Activity: H$130,477
Question suspends in 21 weeks
Suspend date: Fri 1st May 2009 12:59am PDT (21 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: "No Damage" (or similar) explicitly reported: 50%, "Small accident" damage to LHC and/or people: 6%, "Disaster" with 10 or more fatalities: 5%, Just Geneva destroyed: 4%, Just Switzerland destroyed: 1%, Unexpected consequences result in the end of life: 3%, Results reported without referring to damage: 31%
Action history:
Created Wed 11th Jun 4am PDT by
kruijs
Settlement requested Wed 10th Sep 5:08am PDT by
rbrog77: Worked fine.
http://my.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20080910/48c74640_3ca6_1552620080910140316668
http://my.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20080910/48c74640_3ca6_1552620080910140316668
Suspended Wed 10th Sep 5:59am PDT by
tisha
: checking settlement sources
Settlement requested Wed 10th Sep 6:06am PDT by
bigken1: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7604293.stm
first article in your source...
first article in your source...
Unsuspended Wed 10th Sep 1:23pm PDT by
tisha
: The good news - the LHC has been switched on and the world seems to be more or less intact. However, this question asks: What will happen when the "first beams are injected" AND the "first collisions" are triggered.
So, we will have to wait a little longer for high energy collisions to occur before we settle this question
So, we will have to wait a little longer for high energy collisions to occur before we settle this question
Settlement requested Sat 20th Sep 12:13am PDT by
rogerkni: One of CERN's magnets has just heated up and leaked a ton of helium into the tunnel. The vacuum in the beam pipe has been lost. The fire department had to be called. Full damage has not been assessed, but there will be no more trials next week. Here's the link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/earth/2008/09/19/scilhc419.xml
(Note: This is a different accident from the replacement of an overheated transformer earlier in the week.)
Anyway, this should settle the question as "small accident".
(Note: This is a different accident from the replacement of an overheated transformer earlier in the week.)
Anyway, this should settle the question as "small accident".
Settlement requested Sat 20th Sep 3:48pm PDT by
rbrog77: MSNBC says there was damage
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26802846/
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26802846/
Settlement requested Sat 20th Sep 4:38pm PDT by
thepeoplegeekllc: Damage- Stopped - Melted - Failure
Repairs A Quench
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7626944.stm
Repairs A Quench
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7626944.stm
Suspended Sun 21st Sep 6:27am PDT by
tisha
: checking settlement sources
Unsuspended Sun 21st Sep 9:26pm PDT by
tisha
: Sorry for the long unsuspend.
See comments 47 and 53 for clarification of market as it currently stands
See comments 47 and 53 for clarification of market as it currently stands
Changed Description Tue 30th Sep 4:27am PDT by
chris
: show details
... ... This<div
class='smallgrey'>This
question
... isreplaces
<a
href="/users/svenno">svenno's</a>
excellent
<a
href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m231">original
question</a>
with
a
remake
of
the
long
running
but
unfortunately
voided
question
by
svenno
(<a
href='http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m231'>http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m231</a>).
<br/>
Since
there
has
been
discussions
about
WHEN
actually
this
question
should
have
been
settled,
here
is
the
new,
I
hope
less
ambiguous
... version.
<br/>version.</div><br/>
<br/>
... Original
background:
<br/>
<i>TheThe
Large
Hadron
collider
(<a
... href='http://www.lhc.co.uk'>www.lhc.co.uk</a>)
is
currently
under
constructionhref="http://www.lhc.co.uk">www.lhc.co.uk</a>)
was
finally
completed
at
CERN's
base
in
Geneva
in
... Geneva.summer
2008.
It
is
designed
to
consume
massive
amounts
of
energy
throwing
particles
around
a
tunnel
at
massive
... speeds.</i>
<br/>
<br/>
Additional
information:
<br/>speeds.
(<br/>
<a
... href='http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=1&ln=en'>http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=1&ln=en</a>
<br/>href="http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=1&ln=en">more
info
on
CERN
website)</a><br/>
<br/>
The
question
is:
What
will
happen
when
the
"first
... "first
collisions"
are
triggered
(regardless
the
suspend
date
of
the
... question).
<br/>
This
is
scheduledquestion).<br/>
The
original
schedule
called
for
this
to
occur
in
the
... midmiddle
of
... August
but
may
be
postponed
in
case
the
current
"cool-down"
phase
takes
longer/shorter
or
for
legal
issues
(see
<a
href='http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m4944/'>http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m4944/</a>
and
<a
href='http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5869/'>http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5869/</a>)
<br/>
<br/>
"TheAugust:<br/>
<i>"The
cool-down
schedule,
which
I
am
confident
we
can
keep,
foresees
... be
injected
soon
after.
First
collisions
will
follow
two
months
... later."
<br/>later."</i><br/>
(<a
... href='http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=2&ln=en'>http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=2&ln=en</a>)href="http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=2&ln=en">CERN
Journal</a>)<br/>
<br/>
Legal
issues
(see
<a
href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m4944/">http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m4944/</a>
and
<a
href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5869/">http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5869/</a>)
were
overcome
on
schedule,
but
a
technical
glitch
during
the
final
stages
of
the
cool-down
phase
caused
damage
to
the
tunnel.
Because
of
the
necessity
to
reheat
the
tunnel
to
less
inhuman
temperatures
to
repair
this,
followed
by
a
re-cooling
back
down
to
almost
absolute
zero,
this
process
is
expected
to
take
a
number
of
months.
<br/>
... Since<br/>
Sadly
energy
costs
in
the
... original
options
weren't
put
into
question
I
kindwinter
make
atom-smashing
on
this
scale
prohibitively
expensive
in
the
dead
of
... reuse
them,
giving
themwinter
too
expensive,
so
the
first
collisions
are
now
expected
in
Spring
2009
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7632408.stm)<br/>
<br/>
Options
are
similar
... starting
odds.to
the
original
question<br/>
<br/>
... <br/>
<object
width="425"
height="344"><param<a
class="abp-objtab-007193499991104302"
href="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6aU-wFSqt0&hl=en&fs=1"></a><object
height="344"
width="425"><param
name="movie"
... value="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6aU-wFSqt0&hl=en&fs=1"></param><paramvalue="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6aU-wFSqt0&hl=en&fs=1"><param
name="allowFullScreen"
... value="true"></param><embed
src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6aU-wFSqt0&hl=en&fs=1"value="true"><embed
src="http://www.youtube.com/v/f6aU-wFSqt0&hl=en&fs=1"
type="application/x-shockwave-flash"
allowfullscreen="true"
... width="425"
height="344"></embed></object>height="344"
width="425"></object>
Changed Description Tue 30th Sep 4:31am PDT by
chris
: show details
... <div
... class='smallgrey'>Thisclass="smallgrey">This
question
replaces
<a
href="/users/svenno">svenno's</a>
excellent
<a
href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m231">original
question</a>
with
a
... of
energy
throwing
particles
around
a
tunnel
at
massive
speeds.
... (<br/>
<a(<a
href="http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=14/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=1&ln=en">more
info
on
CERN
website)</a><br/>
<br/>
The
question
is:
What
... number
of
months.
<br/>
<br/>
Sadly
energy
costs
in
the
winter
make
atom-smashing
on
this
scale
prohibitively
expensive
in
the
dead
of
... winter
too
expensive,winter,
so
the
first
collisions
are
now
expected
in
Spring
2009
Suspend date: Fri 1st May 2009 12:59am PDT (21 weeks to go)
more info...
Predictions (408)
408 predictions
Comments (95)
What is Hubdub?
Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.
Join now or learn moreRelated News
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
This news is selected automatically based on the question, its background, options and tags
score: 10
News24.com 2 weeks ago
probable that there was a connection that wasn't good,' said Lyn Evans, project leader of the new Large Hadron Collider at Cern, the European Nuclear Research Organisation. Evans said the source problem was small. 'It happens quite often in electrical
score: 10
The Times 2 weeks ago
The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the world's most powerful atom-smasher, which broke down just days after it was switched on, will not start its experiments until the middle of next year
score: 10
Telegraph 3 weeks ago
Extract not available.
score:




http://mediaarchive.cern.ch/MediaArchive/Photo/Public/2008/0803006/0803006_01/0803006_01-A4-at-144-dpi.jpg
does that mean all life? might be hard to collect in that case.
* all life on earth or all life at all everywhere even http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/m5358/
kruijs, are you trying to give the BBC preference between these two, overlapping, options:
1) "No Damage" (or similar) explicitly reported
2) Results reported without referring to damage
I could definitely see some media sources reporting option 1 and others option 2. If the BBC holds trump it's probably okay, although I suppose different articles on bbc.co.uk could report it differently as well.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/journal/article?issue=32/2008&name=CERNBulletin&category=News%20Articles&number=1&ln=en
LHC Cooldown Status
http://lhc.web.cern.ch/lhc/
... Temperatures between 1.7 and 1.9 K, wow, ...
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gBOsea79dkKBPYuLx_bERD8XsLmQ
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/08/the_large_hadron_collider.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/earth/2008/09/05/scilhc105.xml
Such is the angst that the American Nobel prize winning physicist Frank Wilczek of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has even had death threats, said Prof Brian Cox of Manchester University, adding: "Anyone who thinks the LHC will destroy the world is a twat."
You're right, this has been fun to follow.
Hopefully the switch-on of the LHC will yield a whole bunch of new questions :-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/earth/2008/09/08/scicern108.xml
This image will probably not be showing for long - (seen 9-10-08)
http://www.google.com/
So, we will have to wait a little longer for high energy collisions to occur before we settle this question
http://www.smh.com.au/news/science/girl-kills-herself-over-big-bang-fears/2008/09/12/1220857778976.html
How sad that is.
In related news:
Hadron Collider halted for months
Part of the giant physics experiment was turned off for the weekend while engineers probed a magnet failure.
A Cern spokesman said damage to the £3.6bn ($6.6bn) particle accelerator was worse than anticipated.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7626944.stm
Quote from question background:
"The question is: What will happen when the "first beams are injected" AND the "first collisions" are triggered (regardless the suspend date of the question). "
Are you kidding me? Your saying that this seems absurdly dumb? Have you even looked at your name?
@all
"Small accident" damage to LHG and/or people" I think i may have just settled this. I tripped and scraped my ankle when i heard about this. There. Damage to "people"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26802846/
- What will happen when the "first beams are injected" -
- AND the "first collisions" are triggered.
- Regardless the suspend date.
It is quoted directly from the background of the question.
http://news.google.com/news?source=ig&hl=en&rlz=&q=lHC&um=1&ie=UTF-8&ncl=1248093659&sa=X&oi=news_result&resnum=4&ct=more-results&cd=1
This question will not settle until an article is produced indicating that at least an attempt to collide particles has occurred.
But the damage was not result of the experiments. And the results of the experiments are topic of this question - not just the machine turned on. (OK, the title indicates it does, but it was never meant so: Please read question background)
The current headlines exactly indicate what is intended by this question: "Large Hadron Collider won't end world for months" (http://www.itexaminer.com/large-hadron-collider-wont-end-world-for-months.aspx) "Quest for 'Big Bang' delayed by fault in Hadron Collider" (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/quest-for-big-bang-delayed-by-fault-in-hadron-collider-936314.html)
Nice to know we all have a few more months to live...
http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/09/top-5-large-had.html
Can you provide an article indicating that they have tried to collide particles yet. The fact is they have only shot particles in one direction thus far.
and this will be against my prediction the answer is obviously in the question
Small accident" damage to LHG and/or people and that is what happened
http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2008/PR09.08E.html /
http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2008/PR09.08E.html /
Commisioning means: Performing the necessary adjustments, tests and inspection to ensure plant is in full working order to specified requirements before the plant is used.
The question as Krujis asked it is: What will happen when the beams are injected and particle collision is triggered.
The article you yourself provide indicates that these things have not happened yet.
The recent damage means that they will not happen until the repairs are made.
The outcome of this question can only be determined after beams are injected AND particle collision is triggered. Any damage sustained is irrelevant other than the fact it will delay beams being injected and particle collision being triggered which consequently will delay settlement.
@ Curios: This is not something I am making up. This is what the question asks. If you read the previous 20 to 25 comments you will see that I have already explained this to someone else who didn't understand the background information.
Do Not think that the damage sustained in the article you mention (http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2008/PR09.08E.html /) will determine the out come of: "Small accident" damage to LHG and/or people" because the question does not ask what will happen during commissioning.
If the question was referring to events during the commissioning then this question would have already settled.
http://lhc.web.cern.ch/lhc/News.htmm
Incident in LHC sector 34
Geneva, 20 September 2008. During commissioning (without beam) of the final LHC sector (sector 34) at high current for operation at 5 TeV, an incident occurred at mid-day on Friday 19 September resulting in a large helium leak into the tunnel. Preliminary investigations indicate that the most likely cause of the problem was a faulty electrical connection between two magnets, which probably melted at high current leading to mechanical failure. CERN ’s strict safety regulations ensured that at no time was there any risk to people.
A full investigation is underway, but it is already clear that the sector will have to be warmed up for repairs to take place. This implies a minimum of two months down time for LHC operation. For the same fault, not uncommon in a normally conducting machine, the repair time would be a matter of days.
Further details will be made available as soon as they are known.
Don't try to use your arguments if you lose your H$ because it has been clearly explained to you.
http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080922/full/455436a.html?s=news_rss
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7632408.stm
Please not comment 70 and the headline of the article mentioned in it.
http://arxivblog.com/?p=645
please, please read the background of the question carefully. you even might consider reading linked articles to really understand what these citations refer to ("first beams are injected", "first collisions"). you will recognize that the question just doesn't settle yet. the question will not change just because you repeat your questions. doing so, only shows that you did not fully read (or understood) the question background.
@anyone else: DFTT
"The random nature of quantum physics means that there is always a minuscule, but nonzero, chance of anything occurring, including that the new collider could spit out man-eating dragons."
Thats what I was hoping for...if there's a small non-zero chance of an infinite number of possibilities surely something interesting will pop out once they finally get it working
Right now they're heating up their big broken machine, so people can go and find out exactly what went wrong. It's not due to be restarted again until next spring.
dragon, please read the comments above.
the machine has been turned on - you are right - but that alone does not suffice not settle this question.
Please log in or join to add a comment