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Will 3G iPhone be available for sale online at apple.com in 2008 ?

Current forecast: It will not be available online in 2008 (82% chance42%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is It will not be available online in 2008 with a probability of 82% (up 42% in last 1 day)

Steve Jobs announced that 3G iPhone will be released on July 11th. According to AT&T (see article below), it will not be available online immediately after launch.

http://gizmodo.com/5014764/iphone-3g-pricing-and-activation-details-30-unlimited-data-activated-in-store-only-no-online-ordering

Remember, we are not talking eBay or att.com, only apple.com


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Sometime in July
8%
August
2%
September or later in 2008
7%
It will not be available online in 2008
82%
Activity: H$20,198
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Sometime in July: 15%, August: 25%, September or later in 2008: 40%, It will not be available online in 2008: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 11th Jun 7:33am PDT by peterbak
Clarified Wed 11th Jun 8:48am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: I assume that could change therefore I think it is fine to leave open
Suspended Fri 11th Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 25th Aug 9:57am PDT by ruricks: suspended too long.
Unsuspended Tue 26th Aug 2:08am PDT by tomg[Admin]: extended to end at end of 2008

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (87)

87 predictions

3 weeks ago
mfriss predicted It will not be available online in 2008 (H$120 at 82%)
8 weeks ago
ibachelor predicted It will not be available online in 2008 (H$50 at 72%)
8 weeks ago
carrjm predicted September or later in 2008 (H$100 at 11%)
8 weeks ago
hadrien predicted September or later in 2008 (H$100 at 9%)
10 weeks ago
syezhkov predicted It will not be available online in 2008 (H$100 at 74%)
more

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