When will outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Officially leave office?
Current forecast: Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (68% chance
4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 with a probability of 68% (down 4% in last 1 day)
Current Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is entangled in a corruption scandal and the government may collapse if he doesn't step aside and a new Prime Minister is named. Despite his fighting the inevitable, Olmert announced on (June 11, '08) to allow a primary that will replace him in an attempt to keep intact the current government. See Articles below for more details... Therefore, this question asks, WHEN will Olmert officially leave office? A vote of no confidence is scheduled for June 25th '08, then a possible primary may be held by late July or early August, but the other political parties are calling for early elections in November '08, if Olmert doesn't leave soon. ..... UNLESS, the event occurs before Dec 1, '08, this question will suspend on December 1st, '08 and will be settled by January 2nd, '09 at the latest.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
When will outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Officially leave office?
Olmert officially leaves office: July/August 2008
Olmert officially leaves office: Sept/Oct 2008
Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009
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Forecast history, %
Make your prediction!
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Olmert officially leaves office: July/August 2008 |
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Olmert officially leaves office: Sept/Oct 2008 |
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Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008 |
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Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 |
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Activity: H$60,608
Question suspends in 1 week
Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 4:20pm PST (1 week to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Olmert officially leaves office: July/August 2008: 20%, Olmert officially leaves office: Sept/Oct 2008: 38%, Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008: 38%, Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009: 4%
Action history:
Suspended Wed 30th Jul 11:44am PDT by
newswrangler![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)
:
Flagged by super user: Suspended on announcement of resignation.
Pending settlement link, and review of late predictions.
Unsuspended Thu 31st Jul 8:43am PDT by
tisha![This user is an admin [Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif)
:
Although Olmert has announced his intention to step down in September 08, he could stay on until well into 2009, due to the Israeli political system.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jcQAlzgWoaezQ4Fjb5WsxzosARDwD928P8QO2
The Spitzer clause should not take effect in this question, as the question and outcomes clearly state 'officially leave office'
Suspended Sun 21st Sep 11:29am PDT by
mork![This user is a super user [Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif)
:
Suspended pending settlement
Suspend date: Mon 1st Dec 4:20pm PST (1 week to go)
more info...
Predictions (65)
65 predictions
1 week ago
aland predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$300 at 67%)
1 week ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$200 at 65%)
1 week ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$3,500 at 75%)
2 weeks ago
bluedreamer predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$100 at 68%)
2 weeks ago
simoncast predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$100 at 67%)
more1 week ago
aland predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$300 at 67%)
1 week ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$200 at 65%)
1 week ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$3,500 at 75%)
2 weeks ago
bluedreamer predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$100 at 68%)
2 weeks ago
simoncast predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$100 at 67%)
2 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$289 at 66%)
3 weeks ago
missscotland predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$50 at 36%)
3 weeks ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$740 at 34%)
3 weeks ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008 (H$300 at 34%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$191 at 30%)
3 weeks ago
matthelm predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$300 at 25%)
3 weeks ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$90 at 24%)
3 weeks ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008 (H$300 at 32%)
3 weeks ago
greg77 predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$700 at 18%)
3 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$220 at 11%)
3 weeks ago
alexrettie predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$50 at 8%)
4 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert does not leave before: January 1st, 2009 (H$22 at 7%)
4 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008 (H$500 at 42%)
4 weeks ago
steez predicted
Olmert officially leaves office: Nov/Dec 2008 (H$100 at 39%)
Showing recent public predictions only
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Comments (12)
http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=16278
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1212659706207&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3554448,00.html
Happy Betting :-D
Thursday, June 12, 2008 by Staff Writer
Olmert government's fall appears imminent
The fall of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government appeared imminent Thursday as Defense Minister Ehud Barak said he would instruct his Labor Party to vote for the dissolution of the Knesset later this month.
Barak told Labor colleagues at a party meeting in Tel Aviv that "the way things look at the present time, we will support the motion for the dissolution of the Knesset on the June 25th preliminary vote."
A bill to dissolve the Knesset has been introduced by opposition Likud lawmaker Silvan Shalom. With Labor's backing, the bill would receive the votes of 74 of the Knesset's 120 members.
On Wednesday, Barak gave Olmert's Kadima Party an ultimatum to replace the prime minister immediately with someone more acceptable to Labor and the rest of the coalition, or face early general elections. Given Olmert's previous refusal to step down, Barak apparently believes his conditions will not be met.
If the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes, new general elections could be held as early as November.
Sunday, June 15, 2008 by Staff Writer
Frightened by early elections, Olmert's colleagues work to push him out
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is expected to face something of a rebellion within his ruling Kadima Party over his efforts to delay faction primaries, reported The Jerusalem Post.
Kadima is scheduled to hold a party meeting on Monday where Olmert's legal advisors will explain to faction members why it was going to take months before a primary date is even set.
But some Kadima members, particularly those lower on the Knesset list who will not make it back into the legislature if early national elections are held, said they will protest Olmert's foot-dragging. Those lawmakers want to remind party colleagues that if Kadima does not replace Olmert immediately, Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said he will instruct his Labor Party to support the dissolution of the Knesset in a vote scheduled for June 25.
The bill Barak is threatening to help pass was introduced by opposition Likud lawmaker Silvan Shalom, and would set early national elections for sometime in November. Opinion polls suggest Likud would win the election by a healthy margin, while Kadima would lose a significant number of seats.
Barak won his own party's primary election last year based largely on his promise to pull Labor out of a coalition headed by Olmert, who has been maligned by a string of corruption scandals and has seen his popularity plummet over what the public perceives as his inability to properly handle threats facing the nation.
Olmert's deputy, Vice Premier Haim Ramon, blasted Barak in a weekend interview with Israel's Channel 2 News, accusing the Labor leader of knowingly bringing Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu back to power.
"We must not bring Bibi to power, there is no reason to put Bibi in charge," said Ramon, using Netanyahu's popular nickname.
Ramon said he would prefer have Olmert remain prime minister, but said Kadima is ready to choose a new leader more acceptable to Barak and other coalition partners, and that Labor must have patience if it truly wants the government stability it claims.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008 Israel Today Staff
Olmert manages to hold on to power a little longer
Just hours before the Knesset was scheduled to vote on a bill to dissolve itself and set in motion early national elections to be held in November, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert struck a deal with Labor Party leader Ehud Barak to ensure the measure would not pass.
As late as yesterday afternoon, Barak had stated that he would instruct his Labor Party, which is Olmert's chief coalition partner and the Knesset's second largest party, to support dissolution bill. But in an intense meeting that lasted past midnight, Olmert managed to change Barak's mind.
As a condition of Barak's loyalty to the current government, Olmert agreed to hold a primary election in his own Kadima Party, but not until September. Olmert is expected to lose that primary vote to either Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni or Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, making one of them Israel's new prime minister until the next national election in 2010.
The deal between Olmert and Barak was harshly criticized, even by members of Barak's own Labor Party, who have for months been demanding Olmert's replacement as the prime minister wades his way through his sixth corruption scandal and as the public's confidence in his leadership hits an all-time low.
From the opposition, National Religious Party Chairman Zevulun Orlev, one of the authors of the dissolution bill, told Israel National News that Barak had "spit on the face of the Israeli public." Barak has since taking the reins of Labor over a year ago promised on numerous occasions to help remove Olmert from power.
In a turbulent Knesset sessions, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu accused Barak and the Labor ministers of being opportunists, and of caring more about keeping their current positions a little longer than about the security and fate of the nation.
In his turn at the Knesset podium, Olmert lashed back claiming that the opposition simply doesn't want peace in the region, and that is why it is determined to bring him down. Olmert insisted that it was he who had restarted meaningful negotiations with the Palestinians and opened talks with the Syrians. Netanyahu and the opposition have never complained about conducting peace talks with any of the Arabs, but rather about Olmert's public willingness to surrender to nearly all of the Arabs' demands in order to obtain peace agreements.
Thursday, July 10, 2008 Israel Today Staff
Olmert maneuvers to remain prime minister
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Wednesday agreed to a deal whereby the winner of an upcoming primary election in his Kadima Party will immediately replace him as prime minister, but with one big "if."
Senior Kadima sources confirmed the deal to Israel's Channel 1 News after a lengthy meeting between Olmert and the four Kadima leadership candidates - Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter and Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit.
However, Olmert associates later told reporters that the beleaguered prime minister only agreed to the deal because it also contains a clause stating that if the winner of the Kadima primary is unable to form a new majority government, then Olmert is to remain head of the current government until the next national election.
The chances of Livni, Mofaz, Dichter or Sheetrit successfully forming a new majority government are considered small.
The Kadima primary is scheduled to take place in mid-September.
Monday, July 14, 2008 Israel Today Staff
Israel's Olmert charged with defrauding charities
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has come under renewed intense pressure step down this week amid allegations that he defrauded a number of national charities during his time as mayor of Jerusalem and minister of industry and trade.
According to a police statement released at the weekend, evidence suggests that over the course of many years Olmert asked several different charities to fund each of his trips abroad on state business. The money from only one charity was needed to pay for each trip, while the money from the others was deposited into a special bank account that the Olmert family used to finance personal vacations.
Aiding Olmert in the scam was Israeli tourism operator Rishon Tours. Police raided the offices of Rishon Tours last week and confiscated documents and computer hard drives that investigators indicated contain damning evidence backing up the severe charges.
Dubbed "Olmertours," the latest scandal will be lumped together with another ongoing investigation into allegations that Olmert received bribes from an American Jewish businessman over the course of about 15 years. Police said evidence supporting that case is mounting fast, and that an indictment is likely to be filed against Olmert in late August.
But for most Israelis, late August is not soon enough, and Israeli Attorney-General Menachem Mazuz is under growing pressure to declare Olmert incapacitated.
At a press conference in Jerusalem on Sunday, Mazuz said that he agreed with the notion that a prime minister who has lost the public's trust can no longer make and implement difficult decisions, but insisted that it is not his role to dismiss or appoint the nation's leaders.
While Mazuz was meeting with reporters, Olmert set out to prove him wrong by announcing at a Mediterranean summit in Paris that he was bringing Israel closer than ever to a final status peace agreement with the Palestinians and direct peace negotiations with Syria.
Following talks with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, Olmert said he had agreed to release hundreds more jailed Palestinian terrorists as a goodwill gesture and to accelerate efforts to reach a final status peace deal that will result in the creation of a Palestinian Arab state on the biblical Jewish lands of Judea and Samaria.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni continued her public assault on Olmert, certain of the prime minister's imminent downfall and her chances of replacing him.
Speaking to reporters in Paris, where she is accompanying Olmert at the summit of Mediterranean nations, Livni stated that she had already formed a very negative opinion of the prime minister long before the latest scandal broke.
Livni rejected accusations by Olmert's office that police are conducting witch hunt and treating the prime minister too aggressively in the Israeli press.
Police officials have noted that Olmert is in fact receiving privileged treatment, as he sets the date and duration of every interview with investigators. They also noted that anyone but the prime minister would have already been arrested on such serious charges.
Olmert's brief address, given at his official Jerusalem residence, included harsh criticism of corruption investigations against him. He said he was choosing the public good over his personal justice. He has consistently denied wrongdoing but pledged to resign if indicted.
Appearing angry and reading from a prepared text, Olmert said, "I was forced to defend myself against relentless attacks from self-appointed 'fighters for justice' who sought to depose me from my position, when the ends sanctified all the means."
I'm not going to decide on how to action this question tonight - it's 11.30pm and I'm too tired to even think about Spitzer....Top rule for category editors - never settle a market when you're exhausted, you WILL screw it up. Please be patient and I'll sort it out tomorrow.
Lx
Israel's Olmert hands in formal resignation
Published: 9/21/08, 1:06 PM EDT
JERUSALEM (AP) - Israeli premier Olmert hands in formal resignation to president; Livni forming new team.
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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