punditwatch
Will the U.S. National Average for gas reach $5 a gallon in August?
Gasoline prices never got above $4.20 during the month of August, settled as NO
Background:
The EIA (Energy Information Administration) forecasts that gas will peak at a nationwide average of $4.15 per gallon in August.
Recently some have suggested that by August we may hit $5 as the national average. With OPEC meetings scheduled, hurricane season closing in (refineries in Gulf could close), and other factors the $5 horror could become a reality. Will it?
Background Article: EIA Analysis
Settlement details:The market will rely on the Government averages here: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Also the market will settle based on the averages for Regular
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$81,992 |
- Predictions: 33 |
Comments: 6
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 2008 9:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
bayoubear![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Question is fine as it is, settlement would be based on each week's EIA info, so that if one week the price was over $5 it would settle as YES... 
dieseldog: i would think the 99% rule would apply to this question. can we settle as no please? bayoubear: Seems to be pretty well settled...no way it's going to 'average' $5 for August....will settle in a little while bayoubear: Gasoline prices never got above $4.20 during the month of August, settled as NO 
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 9:37am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 2008 9:30am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (33)
pixelpaws
predicted No (H$293 at 98%)
jaspersoddity
predicted No (H$5,000 at 98%)
owlcreekobserver
predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
predicted No (H$10,000 at 96%)
infernalmachine![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$10,000 at 93%)Comments (6)
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Historically, on Hubdub, AFAIK, all questions such as this have not been based on a monthly average -- but when the price, across the US, reached at particular price (and using either a daily or weekly reporting period).
For example, one of the latest settled questions:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_U_S_national_average_gasoline_price_hit_4_per_gallon_by_the_Fourth_of_July_1056/view>
was settled as "Yes", when the average US price broke $4.00 -- which was reported, using the source, as 402.6 USD, for weekly reporting.
Had the "monthly average" price been used, the figure would have to be based on May, 2008, as the monthly average results for June, obviously, aren't available yet. (The average price for May, 2008, was 381.5 USD.)
Bottom line: I think it's unlikely that the creator of this question meant "$5 USD average price for the month of August", based on the way these questions have been asked in the past.
I do think it would be helpful for all questions like this to specify (1) the grade of gasoline or fuel; (2) the definitive settlement source, with a link; (3) the reporting period to be used (weekly, monthly, etc.).
This market was one of those that we "flexed" to fit a punditwatch prediction.
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