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Will the U.S. National Average for gas reach $5 a gallon in August?

Settled as No

Gasoline prices never got above $4.20 during the month of August, settled as NO

Background:


The EIA (Energy Information Administration) forecasts that gas will peak at a nationwide average of $4.15 per gallon in August.


Recently some have suggested that by August we may hit $5 as the national average. With OPEC meetings scheduled, hurricane season closing in (refineries in Gulf could close), and other factors the $5 horror could become a reality. Will it?



Background Article: EIA Analysis


Settlement details: The market will rely on the Government averages here: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm

Also the market will settle based on the averages for Regular

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$81,992
Settled as No on Sun 31st Aug 10:37am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 31st Aug 10:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Wed 11th Jun 12:32pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Clarified Wed 6th Aug 3:59am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Question is fine as it is, settlement would be based on each week's EIA info, so that if one week the price was over $5 it would settle as YES...
Settlement requested Wed 27th Aug 10:54pm PDT by dieseldog: i would think the 99% rule would apply to this question. can we settle as no please?
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 3:12pm PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Seems to be pretty well settled...no way it's going to 'average' $5 for August....will settle in a little while
Settled as 'No' Sun 31st Aug 10:37am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]: Gasoline prices never got above $4.20 during the month of August, settled as NO

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 31st Aug 10:37am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 31st Aug 10:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (33)

33 predictions

13 weeks ago
pixelpaws predicted No (H$293 at 98%)
14 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted No (H$5,000 at 98%)
14 weeks ago
owlcreekobserver predicted No (H$100 at 97%)
14 weeks ago
gypsy predicted No (H$10,000 at 96%)
16 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$10,000 at 93%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 robuk[Admin]
Just for clarification are we agreed that the price must be the average for the month of August. Spikes over $5 a barrel do not count - must be average for the month?
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Sounds reasonable. This is one of those unreasonable markets to begin with, so anything we can do to clarify would be great.
posted 24 weeks ago
@ robuk -- an excellent question, which has never, AFAIK, been specified, rather the "weekly" reporting period has been used by default.

Historically, on Hubdub, AFAIK, all questions such as this have not been based on a monthly average -- but when the price, across the US, reached at particular price (and using either a daily or weekly reporting period).

For example, one of the latest settled questions:
<http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_U_S_national_average_gasoline_price_hit_4_per_gallon_by_the_Fourth_of_July_1056/view>
was settled as "Yes", when the average US price broke $4.00 -- which was reported, using the source, as 402.6 USD, for weekly reporting.

Had the "monthly average" price been used, the figure would have to be based on May, 2008, as the monthly average results for June, obviously, aren't available yet. (The average price for May, 2008, was 381.5 USD.)

Bottom line: I think it's unlikely that the creator of this question meant "$5 USD average price for the month of August", based on the way these questions have been asked in the past.

I do think it would be helpful for all questions like this to specify (1) the grade of gasoline or fuel; (2) the definitive settlement source, with a link; (3) the reporting period to be used (weekly, monthly, etc.).
posted 24 weeks ago
  4 robuk[Admin]
Thanks Newswrangler, in light of your comments if questions in the past have been settled as such I think we should follow with this one and it should be based on if the price goes over $5 (at any time during August) - does that sound fair? I'm concerned that people have been wagering based on previous questions and that we should keep this one the same.
posted 19 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
I spoke to Ryan the day he created this market, at first he wanted to set a date of August 8th. Then decided to make it the entire month of August. I think we have to be careful if we decide to change the settlement criteria from peaking to over $5 or averaging over $5. Fortunately I don't think we are going to be forced to make that decision, seems gas won't get to that point in August.
This market was one of those that we "flexed" to fit a punditwatch prediction.
posted 19 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
why can't this settle?
posted 13 weeks ago

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