
When will Barack Obama release his birth certificate?
The markets original settlement will stay in place. When the market was initially created it did not specify between a COLB and a COB. That is the reason the market will once again settle as By June 21st.
Background:>
Jim Geraghty, reporting on the Campaign Spot, a National Review blog, cited the "unlikely" but still circulating rumor that Obama was born not within the United States, but elsewhere, possibly Kenya.
Geraghty defined the concerns most clearly, stating: "If Obama were born outside the United States, one could argue that he would not meet the legal definition of natural-born citizen … because U.S. law at the time of his birth required his natural-born parent (his mother) to have resided in the United States for '10 years, at least [f]ive of which had to be after the age of 16.'"
He then points out Ann Dunham, Obama's mother, was 18 when Obama was born "so she wouldn't have met the requirement of five years after the age of 16."
Geraghty continues: " (Interestingly, apparently there isn't much paperwork on Obama's parents' marriage. 'Obama: From Promise to Power,' page. 27: 'Obama later confessed that he never searched for the government documents on the marriage, although Madelyn (Obama's maternal grandmother) insisted they were legally married.' Also note that Obama's father apparently was not legally divorced from his first wife back in Kenya at the time, a point of contention that ultimately led to their separation.)"
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Settled
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By June 21st |
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June 2nd - July 7th |
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July 8th - Aug.10th |
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After Aug 10th |
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No release before election |
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Suspend date: Thu 21st Aug 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 17th Jun 12:12pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 13th Jun 12:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: By June 21st : 25%, June 2nd - July 7th : 20%, July 8th - Aug.10th: 20%, After Aug 10th: 15%, No release before election: 20%
Action history:
Obama birth certificate released.
Image available here:
<http://images.dailykos.com/images/user/3/BO_Birth_Certificate.jpg>
From: National Review
<http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NWVjN2I1MjlhM2ZjZjRjYzBkODAxZjZkZGQyYWNkMDk=>
(market suspended)
Was posted at 8:44 PDT this morning at dailykos. Found evidence that it was posted on barackobama's website earlier today or yesterday but is not now...
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/6/12/11012/6168/320/534616
Please back void at least to 8:44 this morning.
I was just trying out the new features, and noted Jenni's info.
Obama's birth certificate was posted to his website (this afternoon) at 5:07PM EDT.
<http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/birthcert>
Suspend date: Thu 21st Aug 11:59pm PDT Settlement date: Tue 17th Jun 12:12pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 13th Jun 12:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (58)
58 predictions
Comments (73)
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I like to think people make informed decisions in the voting booth, not just being blind followers!
If his birth name is "Barry Dunham", how will he ever explain "Barack Hussein Obamama"?
(As reported by National Review ...)
Here are some details about this image that others have noticed: http://suitablyflip.com/suitably_flip/2008/06/kos-tries-to-pa.html
This was interesting -> In order to process your application, DHHL utilizes information that is found only on the original Certificate of Live Birth, which is either black or green. This is a more complete record of your birth than the Certification of Live Birth (a computer-generated printout)
I think the flag pin is a bigger issue than this is (and I REALLY don't think the flag pin is a real issue). Can we talk about tax reform and Iraq now?
(Ends snit, goes to bed)
Here are two examples:
http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2008/03/obama-may-want-to-rethink-his-new-black.html
http://sweetness-light.com/archive/pastor-wright-erased-from-obamas-website
My point is that if Obama wanted to prove anything, he would have them post a Certificate of Live Birth, (which is much more detailed) on his website. This is the official document that has the seal of the State of Hawaii embossed on it.
http://s100.photobucket.com/albums/m35/opendna/?action=view¤t=HI_birthcert_corvo.jpg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama
http://atrueobamanation.blogspot.com/2008/06/america-is-obamanation-exclusive-barack.html
As to your other comment, yes this was settled without a Birth Certificate. A certification of live birth is something else entirely, and shouldn't have been accepted as a substitute.
The problem seems to be inconsistent use of the common sense test. I think the admins need to have the freedom to settle within "common sense", without worrying about people losing lots of $$. And perhaps it should be noted that Erik failed at two attempts (#13,#14) to say the market was improperly settled before arriving at one that worked. Perhaps the admin's should pay attention to such things when considering which opinion is rational.
Let me make just as silly an argument proving that the question was settled correctly initially. The term "birth certificate" was not capitalized in the question itself. Therefore, it does not refer specifically to the document titled "Birth Certificate". Rather, any certificate relating to birth is acceptable. Likewise, "Bloomin' Onion" refers specifically to Outback Steakhouse's version of the tasty dish. But "blooming onion" can be any "food dish consisting of one large fried vidalia onion which is cut to resemble a flower" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blooming_onion).
The point is... it is within the understanding of the major media, most everyone else who isn't trying to prove the certificate is a fake, and probably the author of the question that his BC was released.
Admins: please use the common sense test!
@Erik & notablenotices: why don't you just write a question asking if the BC posted on his site is a fake, or if he will release the "Birth Certificate" (capitalized)? That will give you plenty more screen space to discuss the finer points of US birth documents, photoshop, and so on.
What was released was a "Certification of Live Birth", which is not only much less detailed, but they can also actually be requested to be issued with data that has changed since the birth happened (name changes, for instance). Follow the links provided above for more details. I appreciate your concern, but please consider these details before trying to tell us what our motives were.
The "Certification of Live Birth" simply did not answer the questions raised by the rumors, which was the original question.
@Erik: If the motivation is purely for the market to be settled "correctly", then I apologize for misunderstanding where you were coming from. But I stand by my assertion that capital letters should make a difference. A "birth certificate" could be either the "Birth Certificate" (actual document) or a "short form birth certificate" (the COLB that was released). If you write your state and ask them to send a copy of your birth certificate, they will probably send you the COLB, not a copy of the actual certificate (I have done this). And if you want to get real picky about it, why not require the actual original paper copy to be released? After all, if he does make a copy of his BC available, it's just a copy, not the actual BC.
My point is that there are two extremes that can be taken in settling a market. One extreme is to settle based on the precise language presented in the question and background, looking up the definitions of words if you have to, and perhaps even arguing over what the definition of "is" is. The other extreme is to settle the market based simply on rumor, speculation, etc. The admins have taken both approaches at times, and I have certainly not agreed with all settlements (in particular, the "when will HC concede" question settled before her concession speech). I think the best option is to "avoid all extremes" and to strike a balance. In this case, since a COLB is frequently referred to as a "birth certificate" and it wasn't stated precisely in the initial question, the settlement you suggest requires a "legalistic" (and somewhat inconsistent) point of view.
That's exactly my point.
If you and I then made a wager that I had my birth certificate...I would loose.
Both a driver's license and a learner's permit allow one to drive. However, they are not the same thing.
This whole controversy strikes me as remarkably racist. He is black, so he was born in Africa? Come on. He's black, so we need to actually see the certificate rather than take his and his parties word for it? Come on! I personally don't need to see a man's birth certificate before voting for or against him, I do that based on the actual person!
I can't believe that in this society, which is so PC it's frankly sickening, something like this can get so much attention. It looks like everyone is really concerned about race issues when it's name calling, but not when it's an actual injustice.
The Certificate of Live Birth settles the rumors +1 point
it is not his actual Birth Certificate -1 point
most people colloquially accept this document as a "birth certificate" +1
these are the major arguments I see; it comes out to +1 point for the previous settlement
"Market refers to Birth Certificate, not certificate of Live Birth."
second thing fof has asked more than once is BHO'S birth name "Barry Dunham"?!?!?! more than once. i haven't cheked every link, could fof or somebody else tell me what link to use to see where BHO'S birth name is "Barry Dunham"? fof seems to be a reasonable fella so i'm guessing he didn't pull that out of no where. have a nice day.
p.s. i've disagreed with ryan more than once. i told him to get another catagory..something easy like technolgy. he said no way. somebody has to make the unpopular descions. goodluck with this one ryan.
"Barack even joked when was running for U.S. Senate that had he taken his mother's name he would be known as Barry Dunham instead of the more African name in honor of his father: Barack Hussein Obama."
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=201618
"
OCTOBER SURPISE 2
Various off-site comments introduce other interesting opinions about the missing birth certificate:
6. That his name on the certificate is actually Barry with family name as Dunham.
9. In American immigration law a new born, born to only one US natural born citizen which in this case would be his mother — Ann Dunham - thus Barry Dunham would or should be on his birth certificate.
For him to change his name at birth to OBAMA his father would have had to ADOPT him, there is no evidence that he did this, thus his name remains Dunham.
When his mother remarried his name was changed to Soetoro but how? His new father would also have had to adopt him to change his name , and make him a citizen of Indonesia, however Barry returned to Honolulu somehow on his second father's passport.
His grandparents did not change Barry’s legal status, so for some reason he kept the name Soetoro until he changed it yet again to Barack Hussein Obama but he did not do it legally by deed poll thus he should still be using his real name."
http://noiri.blogspot.com/2008/06/october-surpise-2.html
There is no doubt in my mind that he's eligible to run for POTUS, but it certainly appears that there is something on his birth certificate that he doesn't want to have to explain or defend. In light of his possible Black Panther connections, it could be tedious to explain his choice of Barack Hussein Obama.
The market is: When will Barack Obama release his birth certificate?
Plain and simple.
We're all trying to read way too much into this.
PS @triamathametician: I'm not aware of the frequency of a birth certificate being interchanged with a certificate of live birth. It doesn't happen with the Social Security Dept. I tried.
You state, "it wasn't stated precisely in the initial question."
Geez, Louise!! How much more precise would you like morgie (the creator), to have been??
The market precisely asks; When will Barack Obama release his birth certificate?
He hasn't...yet.
I supported HRC until Obama became the presumptive nominee. Then, I gave him a really good lookover, hoping to see what it was that was enticing half the Democrats to his leadership. I came away not only lacking and real substance, but I feel betrayed.
Once he won the nomination, I figured I'd either vote for Obama, or at worst, not vote at all.
But as things stand now, I'm jumping across the aisle to vote for McCain. Oh, I'll still be voting Dem down the ticket, just not for President.
In this way, I figure, the Dem controlled congress can keep McSame in check for four years.
Integrity means you stick to your personal code of conduct. You stick to what you decide is right and wrong.
http://www.tipsforsuccess.org/truth.htm
Nothing like making a decision, then changing it, then saying: Oh, never mind...I meant what I said before.
The problem with Obama is his lack of experience, he hasn't been around once yet but he thinks that as president he can just make all these decisions and have them work, even though they haven't worked in the past. He really jumped the gun on running for president, because he would have been far more electable 8 years down the road in a party mostly undamaged after a few RDC wins, but here we are.
Even though I predict more dems voting for McCain then Reps voting for Obama, and McCain winning the election, I really do hope I'm wrong about Obama just in case he does win, becuase if he's half as naive as he sounds America will be half the nation it is now when he's had 4 years of diplomatic mistakes under his belt.
All that said, I still maintain that his birth certificate is a none issue.
I don't see why Big O can't produce one, cause, you know, he IS running for POTUS.
http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/06/19/obama-birth-certificate-question-re-opened/
REAL
Hawaii Certification of Live Birth:http://www.valeehill.net/genealogy/documents/doc_decosta_pat_birth.jpg
Winnie the Pooh’s birth certificate more authentic than Obama’s
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3675
From the article:
“The failure of the Obama campaign to do so, and its willingness instead to put up an invalid, uncertified image—what now appears to be a crude forgery—raises the dramatic question of why the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate might have to hide."
A blogger quoted my comment #21 above!!!
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/06/28/daily-kos-an-obama-activist-and-forged-birth-certifications/
He even credited my screen name
I almost fell famous :-D
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/06/28/daily-kos-an-obama-activist-and-forged-birth-certifications/
Here is an example of the real thing: http://snarkybytes.com/?p=521 It is a lot more complete!
A Forensic Expert now is on record as saying this COLB is a forgery http://atlasshrugs2000.typepad.com/atlas_shrugs/2008/07/forensic-expert.html#comment-122155086
And Andy Martin proved that Barack was lying when he claimed his parents were married! http://www.pr-inside.com/barack-obama-panics-andy-martin-s-book-r700482.htm
This sure is getting interesting real fast
1. Occidental College records – Not released
2. Columbia College records – Not released
3. Columbia Thesis paper – “not available”
4. Harvard College records – Not released
5. Selective Service Registration – Not released
6. Medical records – Not released
7. Illinois State Senate records – “not available”
8. Illinois State Senate schedule – “not available”
9. Law practice client list – Not released
10. Certified Copy of original Birth certificate – Not released
11. Embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth – Not released
12. Harvard Law Review articles published – None
13. University of Chicago scholarly articles - None
( From Hillary Clintons Forum: http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?p=262198 )
"Why is Barack Obama paying Lawyers intead of producing his Birth Certificate?" http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2008/10/why-is-obama-paying-lawyers-instead-of.html
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Why Is Obama Paying Lawyers Instead of Producing Birth Certificate?
Last week a Judge Ordered Senator to produce his birth certificate, Yesterday the Senator's lawyers have filed for a delay of the order. Now I know most people think that the "birth certificate" issue is as legitimate as the tooth fairy. But My question to them is, if it is so illegitimate, why is the Senator paying lawyers instead of just giving the birth certificate document to the Judge?
“When Barack Obama Jr. was born on Aug. 4,1961, in Honolulu, Kenya was a British colony, still part of the United Kingdom’s dwindling empire. As a Kenyan native, Barack Obama Sr. was a British subject whose citizenship status was governed by The British Nationality Act of 1948. That same act governed the status of Obama Sr.‘s children.
Since Sen. Obama has neither renounced his U.S. citizenship nor sworn an oath of allegiance to Kenya, his Kenyan citizenship automatically expired on Aug. 4,1982.
http://fightthesmears.com/articles/5/birthcertificate
Photo Documents Barry Soetoro: Indonesian Citizen, Muslim Religion
This registration document, made available on Jan. 24, 2007, by the Fransiskus Assisi school in Jakarta, Indonesia, shows the registration of Barack Obama under the name Barry Soetoro into the Catholic school made by his step-father, Lolo Soetoro. The document lists Barry Soetoro as a Indonesian citizen, born on August 4, 1961 in Honolulu, and shows his Muslim step-father listed the boy's religion as Islam.(AP Photo/ Tatan Syuflana)
http://www.daylife.com/photo/01u33pL9Ns06D
If Lolo Soetoro adopted him he ceased to be a US Citizen in the mid 1960s, BY INDONESIAN LAW. He also ceased to be a Kenyan Citizen, BY INDONESIAN LAW. By Kenyan and US Law he retained his Original Citizenships, until his 21st Birthday. By Indonesian Law he could have given up Indonesian Citizenship at age 18, but did he? If he didn’t he was, albeit accidentally, displaying a Legal Intention to void his US Citizenship, since he knew he could not Legally hold both Citizenships.
http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/09/25/breaking-obama-admits-dual-citizenship/
http://contrariancommentary.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/hawai%E2%80%99i-supreme-court-asked-to-issue-emergency-writ-opening-secret-obama-birth-files/
These might be released yet!
"FactCheck.org staffers have now seen, touched, examined and photographed the original birth certificate. We conclude that it meets all of the requirements from the State Department for proving U.S. citizenship. Claims that the document lacks a raised seal or a signature are false. We have posted high-resolution photographs of the document as "supporting documents" to this article. Our conclusion: Obama was born in the U.S.A. just as he has always said."
Berg said he is in possession of a native-language audiotape of Sarah Obama, Barack Obama's paternal grandmother, stating on the day of the last presidential debate that her famous grandson was indeed born in Kenya, and that she was present in the hospital for his birth.
"The tape is in the native language there," Berg said. "I will release it as soon as translation is confirmed by affidavit, and we are waiting on affidavits from contacts over here and in Kenya."
So, who does have standing? According to the Hon. R. Barclay Surrick, that's completely up to Congress to decide.
If, through the political process, Congress determines that citizens, voters, or party members should police the Constitution’s eligibility requirements for the Presidency, then it is free to pass laws conferring standing on individuals like Plaintiff. Until that time, voters do not have standing to bring the sort of challenge that Plaintiff attempts to bring in the Amended Complaint.
things have been quitely lately with no dragonfang around. i look forward to reading his comments. maybe the secert service picked him up for questioning. :O)
http://www.rightsidenews.com/200811162625/editorial/first-court-hearing-on-obama-s-birth-certificate-on-tuesday-nov-18-2008.html
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