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Created Wed 11th Jun 9:24pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
All questions » Entertainment » Celebrities » 

Will it be announced that Paul Newman has lung cancer by end of the year?

Settled as Yes

Sadly, Paul Newman died of cancer on Friday
http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2008-09-27-newman-obit_N.htm

Background:

Reports have been swirling around the recent rumors that famous actor Paul Newman has been diagnosed and is fighting "terminal" lung cancer.


At this time though it is still somewhat unclear what Newman's condition is. His publicist has reported that the rumors are false and a "confirmed rumor" from a friend of Paul's has been retracted. So what really is happening?


If by suspend date no confirmation has arisen the market shall be voided. Confirmation would be statements from Newman or a family member.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. If by suspend date no confirmation has arisen the market shall be voided. Confirmation would be statements from Newman or a family member.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Yes
69%
No
31%
Activity: H$8,459
Settled as Yes on Sat 27th Sep 7:38am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 7:38am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 68%

Action history:

Created Wed 11th Jun 9:24pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Clarified Thu 12th Jun 1:53pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Edited market question to make the market clearer for users to understand.
Suspended Sat 27th Sep 7:08am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 7:08am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: I dunno how this settles, but Paul Newman died today. (market suspended)
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 7:15am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Prediction cutoff: FRIDAY

<http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2008-09-27-newman-obit_N.htm>
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 7:16am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Yes - cancer.


Prediction cutoff: FRIDAY

<http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2008-09-27-newman-obit_N.htm>
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 27th Sep 7:38am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Sadly, Paul Newman died of cancer on Friday
http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2008-09-27-newman-obit_N.htm

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 7:38am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

10 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted No (H$20 at 31%)
11 weeks ago
hexerei predicted Yes (H$50 at 69%)
14 weeks ago
gossipgirl15 predicted Yes (H$50 at 69%)
16 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted Yes (H$100 at 71%)
16 weeks ago
rogi predicted No (H$20 at 31%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 destry[Admin]
So if I understand this question correctly it suspends in 28 weeks and if no news is confirmed by then instead of being settled as a NO, this question will be voided? So you are asking us to tie up money into a question in which the likelihood is that it will be voided. Why wasn't question asked with a 3rd option that simply gave the option of it is neither confirmed or denied by so and so date. Seems like a weird way to create a market.
posted 24 weeks ago

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