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Created Thu 12th Jun 5:04pm PDT by loren
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Which Clinton will speak first at the Democratic National Convention, Hillary or Bill?

Settled as Hillary speaks first

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/07/1254376.aspx

Background:

http://www.demconvention.com/

Both Clintons have a claim to a prominent time slot at the DNC in August -- Hillary, with her strong showing in the primaries, and Bill having been the most recent Democratic president. Which one will address the convention first?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Hillary speaks first
24%
Bill speaks first
50%
Only Hillary speaks
25%
Only Bill speaks
1%
Neither Clinton gives a speech at the convention
0%
Activity: H$32,704
Settled as Hillary speaks first on Thu 7th Aug 5:05pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 7th Aug 5:05pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 7th Aug 4pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary speaks first: 35%, Bill speaks first: 35%, Only Hillary speaks: 15%, Only Bill speaks: 10%, Neither Clinton gives a speech at the convention: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 12th Jun 5:04pm PDT by loren
Settlement requested Thu 7th Aug 4:57pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: BILL CLINTON OFFERED SPEAKING ROLE

Thursday, August 07, 2008 7:21 PM EDT

<http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/07/1254376.aspx>

Haven't looked for earlier reports ... apparently reported on broadcast media. (market suspended)
Suspended Thu 7th Aug 4:57pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settled as 'Hillary speaks first' Thu 7th Aug 5:05pm PDT by destry[Admin]: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/07/1254376.aspx

Suspend date: Sat 23rd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 7th Aug 5:05pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 7th Aug 4pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (74)

74 predictions

17 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Hillary speaks first (H$7,802 at 55%)
17 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Bill speaks first (H$7,800 at 73%)
17 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Only Hillary speaks (H$50 at 25%)
17 weeks ago
mrperfkt[Admin] predicted Hillary speaks first (H$500 at 25%)
17 weeks ago
roostah predicted Hillary speaks first (H$50 at 20%)
more

Comments (22)

  1 fingers_of_fury
awesome question!
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 bayoubear[Admin]
Yep...that's a really good one...great job
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 newswrangler[Power User]
This is such an excellent question!

I just changed my predictions, and am now in with "the majority" :-|
posted 21 weeks ago
  4 coolkraft
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D91VP7E81&show_article=1

wonder what he will have to say
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 cognos[Power User]
Hillary will speak on Tuesday.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/31/clinton-to-speak-tuesday-at-democratic-convention-sources-say/

And, according to the article ...
"that means she's not going to be the VP, because the VP (if known), speaks on Wednesday.
posted 18 weeks ago
  6 dieseldog
congrads to bayoubear, destry, infernal, on becoming admins. which cats did you get?
posted 18 weeks ago
  7 cognos[Power User]
yes, congrats.

to mrprfkt as well.
posted 18 weeks ago
  8 cognos[Power User]
i heard there were 5 new cateds.
anyone know who the other is?
posted 18 weeks ago
  9 cognos[Power User]
aaaah!

jenniandboys!!!
i thought so.

A

BIG

Congrats to all!
posted 18 weeks ago
  10 jenniandboys[Admin]
There should be a formal announcement made today or tomorrow introducing everyone and who's working where. Until then, maybe you guys should start guessing :)
posted 18 weeks ago
  11 cognos[Power User]
While any of them would do well within any category, here are my guesses...

jenniandboys - entertainment
destry - politics
infernalmachine - sports
mrprfct - world
bayoubear - business
posted 18 weeks ago
  12 destry[Admin]
Good guess cognos... you got all the admins names correct, just mixed up two categories.
posted 18 weeks ago
  13 cognos[Power User]
thanks.
I'll switch ...

mrprfct with infernal
posted 18 weeks ago
  14 mrperfkt[Admin]
Thanks for the congrats, Cognos!

And congrats to the other new admins. Think we have a pretty good group and know that we'll all try our best to make hubdub a great site!
posted 18 weeks ago
  15 jake
Why did this settle? The people that are running the convention don't even know who is speaking when, regardless of what you read on the internet. You might as well settle all of the election questions already if you are settling this one already. This shouldn't be settled until one of the Clintons actually takes the stage. This makes no sense.
posted 17 weeks ago
  16 destry[Admin]
@jake - I responded to your flag by sending you a personal email. Thank you for flagging market. No reason to post the information from flag in comments.
posted 17 weeks ago
  17 dieseldog
@jake..i'm guesing if this settled wrong they will make it right. i have no money in the market. maybe destry knows how this works. according to the link bill is pose to speak (according to sources) on wensday before the VP. if thats the case won't hillary speak first..ie her prime time slot on tuesday?
posted 17 weeks ago
  18 dieseldog
if thats how it works then it would be settled correctly. i might have it mixed up, but pretty sure destry will know.
posted 17 weeks ago
  19 destry[Admin]
Hillary slated to speak on Tuesday. Bill slated to speak on Wednesday. Market settled based on those announcements. If super natural events occur to change these outcomes, there is always a safety valve for correcting. But once they are announced it is very very likely it will occur.
posted 17 weeks ago
  20 newswrangler[Power User]
In my view, posting information in comments and sending a flag is fine.

The former communicates to fellow-users, the later catches the eye of the category editor.
posted 17 weeks ago
  21 destry[Admin]
I agree that a person can comment on anything they want. I was trying to emphasized the importance of making sure that they flagged those markets as well.
posted 17 weeks ago
  22 dieseldog
*will
posted 17 weeks ago

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