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Will Israel bomb Iran in 2008?

Current forecast: 9% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 9% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
9%
No
91%
Activity: H$35,771
Question suspends in 3 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 12th Jun 7:25pm PDT by loren

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (101)

101 predictions

3 days ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$970 at 90%)
2 weeks ago
rogi predicted No (H$100 at 90%)
3 weeks ago
kimo_brah predicted Yes (H$50 at 10%)
3 weeks ago
lemmycaution predicted Yes (H$50 at 10%)
5 weeks ago
evanp predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

Comments (8)

Senior Israeli officials are openly threatening to attack Iran's nuclear installations before President George W. Bush's term expires. Early, this month Israel staged a large, U.S.-approved exercise using F-15s and F-16s to rehearse an attack over 900 miles - precisely the distance to Iran's nuclear facilities.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Margolis_Eric/2008/07/05/6077376-sun.php
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 Erik
Do air to surface missles count?
posted 20 weeks ago
  3 lesley[Admin]
@ erik - I would say yes. Does anyone else have an opinion?
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 cognos[Power User]
i think that air-to-surface, surface-to-surface, undersea-to-surface, even a 'bomb' that explodes above Iran's surface, should count. a bomb is a bomb. i think what we're looking for here is an explosion in Iran, caused by some Israeli action.

any others thoughts?
posted 20 weeks ago
  5 Erik
thanks
posted 20 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
An atomic bomb actually detonates in the air.

Just a though ... :&
posted 20 weeks ago
  7 cognos[Power User]
@kruijs
ah, that's what i was refering to, but didn't want to say it.
posted 20 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
everybody sounds reasonable to me. imho if israel does bomb them there won't be any doubt..as in they'll hit them hard. i don't see 1 conventional bomb doing much good for as much trouble it will cause. i would call for a group hug, but lesley's the only female :O( maybe we can get tish and jenni to comment :O)

p.s. @trimath & nigel..no offense ment.
posted 20 weeks ago

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