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Created Fri 13th Jun 12:50pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Who will win Iowa in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Settled as Obama

Iowa was Obama's first win in the Democratic primary, and many analysts think it was his only important one. Once he defeated Clinton in Iowa the war was over but the battle wasn't. Now with the election heating up will Obama be able to reconquer Iowa?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Market settled based on delegates awarded

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

 Obama
98%
McCain
2%
Other
0%
Activity: H$71,972
Settled as Obama on Tue 4th Nov 9:57pm PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 7pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:57pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Obama: 70%, McCain: 29%, Other: 1%

Action history:

Created Fri 13th Jun 12:50pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 3rd Nov 8:19am PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-03 22:59:00"
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 2:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Tue 4th Nov 3:09pm PST by destry[Admin]: was: "2008-11-04 14:59:00"
Unsuspended Tue 4th Nov 3:09pm PST by destry[Admin]: Unsuspended until polls close
Suspended Tue 4th Nov 7pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 8:18pm PST by jcollie: Many media outlets declare Iowa for Obama:

http://www.npr.org/#/president/ia?view=race08
Settled as 'Obama' Tue 4th Nov 9:57pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Tue 4th Nov 7pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:57pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Nov 7pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (190)

190 predictions

4 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted McCain (H$5 at 2%)
4 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted McCain (H$50 at 1%)
4 weeks ago
dingoh predicted McCain (H$20 at 1%)
4 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted McCain (H$5 at 1%)
4 weeks ago
notablenotices[Power User] predicted McCain (H$5 at 8%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 notablenotices[Power User]
"Four years ago at this point, George W. Bush was down five points in Iowa," Brownback said. "Today John McCain is down one point in Iowa."

http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2008/11/02/mccain-camp-things-are-getting-tight/
posted 4 weeks ago
  2 eliminati
LOL - check realclearpolitics.com OR fivethirtyeight.com OR CNN - Iowa is listed as 100% or Safe DEM or Solid DEM.

The ***ONLY*** poll that shows McCain up is a double-secret-probation type internal poll that we have no access to the number of responders, the weight they give to dem/rep, the length of the survey, a history of their accuracy - you know, all the things we can use to help us judge a poll's ability to predict an outcome.

I'm thinking of cashing out everything I have and doubling down on Iowa at 60ish %. In all honesty, McCain's chance of winning is a fraction of one percent, a fraction of a fraction.
posted 4 weeks ago
  3 notablenotices[Power User]
LOL - Then why is Barack campaigning in Iowa today?

http://usnews.feedroom.com/?fr_story=556e25deaee43c4c084c823d4288d2c928da8fe8&rf=rss
posted 4 weeks ago
  4 eliminati
I think it was a thank you return, for the initial primary victory, and for his substantial lead.
posted 4 weeks ago

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