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Will Selling To Aliens Increase Annual Sales Of Doritos?

Current forecast: Increase of turnover (68% chance2%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Increase of turnover with a probability of 68% (down 2% in last 1 day)

The snacks company Doritos (http://www.doritos.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doritos) has transmitted an advert directly to a solar system called "'47 Ursae Majoris".
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/33215/title/Science_%2B_the_Public__Confirmed_Big_Dipper_to_Get_Doritos

When Nasa recently beamed a Beatles song towards the North Star, 431
light years from Earth, some experts warned that the signals could
expose us to the risk of attack from mean spirited aliens.

On the other hand, humans have been announcing their presence by radio and TV broadcasts for decades and when it comes to the Nasa broadcast, "this is a 1,000 light year round trip, it's highly unlikely it will ever be received
by extra-terrestrials."

In this case though "there is a much greater chance that the Doritos advert will potentially be seen by billions of aliens."

As part of its new 'You Make It, We Play It' campaign, Doritos will also air the advert on the more conventional medium of British television in June.

Actually, it will take about 42 years for the transmission to reach the solar system, so asking whether aliens who live there will get their snacks from earth somehow would take quite long to settle. More likely is a statement of the company in which they refer to the advert and announce an increase of sales as a result. This should be published within one year.

Can the sales of Doritos brand products be increased within a year by adverting to aliens as reported in an annual earnings report? And just in case: Will other aliens (ones not so far away) get their bag with nachos right now?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Increase of turnover
68%
Increase of turnover w/ sales to aliens
1%
No increase of turnover
30%
No increase of turnover w/ sales to aliens
1%
Activity: H$3,763
Question suspends in 29 weeks

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 2009 2:59pm PDT (29 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Increase of turnover: 49%, Increase of turnover w/ sales to aliens: 1%, No increase of turnover: 49%, No increase of turnover w/ sales to aliens: 1%

Action history:

Created Sat 14th Jun 3:02pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]

Suspend date: Tue 30th Jun 2009 2:59pm PDT (29 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (24)

24 predictions

8 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted No increase of turnover (H$8 at 28%)
8 weeks ago
lori98 predicted No increase of turnover (H$20 at 27%)
14 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Increase of turnover (H$100 at 70%)
14 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Increase of turnover (H$1,000 at 67%)
17 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Increase of turnover (H$1,000 at 59%)
more

Comments (11)

  2 randburg
...and just when I thought this might refer to ILLEGAL ALIENS who just might be interested in a nacho-like corn chip product...
posted 24 weeks ago
i would love to see the next big hoax be a bunch of geeks buying doritos while dressed as aliens...
posted 17 weeks ago
"all your doritos are belong to us"
posted 17 weeks ago
@ kruijs -- while tracking the results of an advertising campaign can be (and is) done, I doubt any such results (return on marketing dollar) would be reported in "an annual earning report".

That said, are you simply asking if Doritos sales will be greater next year than they were this year?

If so, do you think "equal starting odds" are correct for this? (How often have they had a decrease in sales over the past ten years? ;-)
posted 17 weeks ago
  6 kruijs[Power User]
@newswrangler,
actually that is what it boils down to-
I must admit I didn't research the earnings history of the company when creating the question.
Well, there is a regression going on world wide - which could influence their earnings. Having growth in earnings over the past years does not automatically mean you have an increase in this year.
Maybe there are analysts who can come up with a forecast?
posted 17 weeks ago
Yeah ... Doritos is owned by Pepsi
Beverages have been down and up, but snacks have been good ;-)
<http://finance.yahoo.com/q/sa?s=pep>
posted 17 weeks ago
  8 markc
I have an alien in my freezer clutching a bag of cool ranch, a can of bean dip and a receipt from 7-Eleven with his name on it. Can send photos.
posted 15 weeks ago
This is hilarious! Where can I get the same drugs at?? I sense an hour of stand-up on HBO coming out of this dialog.
posted 10 weeks ago
  10 buckeyetom
Also, I forgot to ask if the National Enquirer is considered a Major Mainstream News Source?
posted 10 weeks ago
  11 buckeyeguy
I believe that a preponderance of intelligent life in the Universe and assorted nearby Dimensions (+/- 3.1415) prefer Tostitos to Doritos. This advertising campaign demonstrates, to those who don't live in our particular spacial/temporal arena, a lack of sophistication in our dietary habits. Darn shame.
posted 3 weeks ago

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