Created Tue 17th Jun 10:25am PDT by 
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All questions » World » Middle East » valornhonor Will the Hamas/Israeli truce last for at least 30 days?
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Background:
This week Palestinian and Hamas spokespersons announced, and Israeli officials did not deny, a planned truce effective Thursday June 19th, 2008 at 0600.
This market is speculating whether a truce, defined as the absence of attacks will hold for at least 30 days. It is difficult to predict, both sides would presumably prefer an end to hostilities, but truces themselves do not have a good track record in this part of the world.
This market is speculating whether a truce, defined as the absence of attacks will hold for at least 30 days. It is difficult to predict, both sides would presumably prefer an end to hostilities, but truces themselves do not have a good track record in this part of the world.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. Also, if any Palestinian, Hamas or Israeli spokespersons are reported on CNN, AP or Reuters that the Truce has been broken this market will settle for a No.
Suspend date: Thu 19th Jun 4:59pm PDT
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
Created Tue 17th Jun 10:25am PDT by valornhonor
valornhonor
Voided Tue 17th Jun 4:42pm PDT by 
lesley![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: The question creator has requested a void. See the comments for details.
lesley: The question creator has requested a void. See the comments for details.
Suspend date: Thu 19th Jun 4:59pm PDT
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Get widget!Predictions (15)
15 predictions
jcolter
frank2877
kiwifire
hoosierdaddy
bcguelph
timmstifter
mork
smidge76
robmar
kruijsComments (7)
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score: 10
CNN 24 weeks ago
GAZA CITY, Gaza (CNN) -- A truce between Israel and Gaza's Hamas leaders will go into effect within three days, according to high-level Hamas sources. Palestinian Hamas security men stand to attention at a training academy in Gaza City last week. A Hamas
score: 10
GlobalSecurity.org 24 weeks ago
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh says the militant group and Israel may be close to signing a truce in the Gaza Strip. Mr. Haniyeh told a gathering in Gaza Monday that ceasefire negotiations in Egypt were nearing an end, and that the pact would encompass both
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Sound familiar yet...? A simple business negotiation in the market place in the Middle East can involve screaming and yelling at each other for 45 minutes, NO violence whatsoever, and sitting down and drinking tea with each other to celebrate the purchase (when it is over)...I have witnessed this often...
There are going to many THREATS to break this truce, but it is going to be another example of BLUFF and BLUSTER...The difference between "threatening to break the truce" and "actually breaking the truce" is going to be very important to this prediction. It needs to be more than just talk...
Excellent points all. Beyond my initial criteria of one or more of the spokespeople publicly saying that the Truce is OFF, would you care to offer a more concrete metric? Plz offer an alternative.
Thanks!
Flagged. There will be no way to settle this in a definitive way. It doesn't matter what the parties say, it matters what they do. So let's say, Hamas Lt. Ibrahim decides to send a rocket into Israel, and Hamas leadership denies "ordering" the attack. How does this settle?
frank2877 states the case well: this truce is "defined as the absence of attacks". He is also correct in saying that "all it will take is one rocket from Gaza". As long as it is only a "war of words", the truce will not have been broken. Actual physical action will break the truce.
It is so amazing that they have come up with any kind of truce at all, that I am inclined to believe (possibly foolishly) that they really intend to keep this truce. The real question IMHO is: will an isolated skirmish, possibly by some trigger-happy "whatsit", break the truce...?
valornhonor did us a favor to bring this situation to our attention and point out how tenuous it really is...It's a very good prediction question. However, just short of open warfare, it would not be easy to settle...I anticipate the possibility of one or more minor skirmishes, but that the truce will not be broken in the next month...Our course, the Middle East does NOT have the best record, and that outcome could be a hopeful wish on my part rather than reality...
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