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Will China recall any ambassadors due to insulting or inappropriate behavior by an Olympic athlete?

Settled as No

No reports of this were found.

Background:

This market is speculating whether the country of China will formerly extract an ambassador, stationed in another country, back to China from that country in retaliation, or as a sign of displeasure for an insulting or inappropriate act by an Olympic athlete.

I'm speculating on this because there are powerful forces at work here, on the one hand one of the world's largest, most powerful countries is eager to showcase their "world class-ness" while at the same time trying to keep a short rein on what would otherwise be the largest, most joyful event of the year involving the most countries. At the same time athletes from all over the world will converge within China, be under close media scrutiny and the reporters will be very keen to break any story that is interesting (bad news, typically). Athletes by definition are the best at what they do, but what they do is not diplomacy or politics, so there is at least the possibility that one or more of them might do or say something to offend the sensibilities of their hosts. The recall of an ambassador would appear to be the kind of move that China might make to show their displeasure.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To settle for a YES, the following specific things will have to occur:

1.) An Olympic athlete will be accused by Chinese authorities of an insult or for behaving in an inappropriate way. Either or both of these exact words will need to be reported.

2.) China will have to recal an ambassador, prior to the end of September 2008, back to China from the home country of the athlete that was reprimanded by China previously. There does not have to be a specific mention of the 1st point at the occasion of this 2nd point, but both have to occur for this to settle as a YES.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
3%
No
97%
Activity: H$33,472
Settled as No on Thu 2nd Oct 7:24am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 2nd Oct 7:24am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Tue 17th Jun 10:45am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 1st Oct 7:55pm PDT by dieseldog: no recall from insulting or inappropriate behavior by an Olympic athlete that i can find.
Settled as 'No' Thu 2nd Oct 7:24am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: No reports of this were found.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Thu 2nd Oct 7:24am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (17)

17 predictions

9 weeks ago
junkie predicted No (H$50 at 95%)
9 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$4,000 at 90%)
10 weeks ago
keyeshoveden predicted No (H$8,000 at 87%)
15 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted No (H$10 at 84%)
15 weeks ago
markc predicted No (H$50 at 84%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 markc
** The recall of an ambassador would appear to be the kind of move that China might make to show their displeasure.
more background **

Appear to whom? The completely clueless?
posted 15 weeks ago

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