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Which national convention; DNC or GOP will have more reported arrested protestors?

Settled as More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis

National conventions increasingly are known as much for what happens outside in screaming voices as what used to happen inside in smoke filled rooms... market is looking to gauge which of the two national conventions this year, will result in the largest number of arrested protestors.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Qualifying arrested persons will be in either Minneapolis or Denver and have been reported to be protesting the convention itself for the days that the convenetion is in progress. GOP covention will be Sept 1st-4th in Minneapolis-St. Paul and the DNC convention will be held in Denver, Aug 25th-28th.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

More arrests at DNC in Denver
66%
More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis
28%
Virtual tie, within 100 of each other
6%
No one protests, everyone's happy and content
0%
Activity: H$84,398
Settled as More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis on Thu 4th Sep 9:13pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 9:13pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 3:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: More arrests at DNC in Denver: 60%, More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis : 35%, Virtual tie, within 100 of each other: 4%, No one protests, everyone's happy and content: 1%

Action history:

Created Tue 17th Jun 12:26pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Suspended Mon 1st Sep 3:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 2nd Sep 3:27am PDT by chatarra: Can be settled as GOP.
(Where were these idiots, last week, when I really needed them. . .)

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/usa/news/article_1428240.php/Nearly_300_arrested_outside_Republican_convention_
Nearly 300 arrested outside Republican convention
Settled as 'More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis ' Thu 4th Sep 9:13pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 3:59pm PDT Settlement date: Thu 4th Sep 9:13pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 1st Sep 3:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (184)

184 predictions

13 weeks ago
violetplanet predicted More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis (H$300 at 26%)
13 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted More arrests at DNC in Denver (H$2,000 at 63%)
13 weeks ago
darkdruid predicted More arrests at GOP convention in Minneapolis (H$1,000 at 27%)
13 weeks ago
pepe predicted More arrests at DNC in Denver (H$200 at 67%)
13 weeks ago
kiwifire predicted More arrests at DNC in Denver (H$140 at 66%)
more

Comments (19)

  1 chatarra
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/politics/16646407/detail.html

Manufacturer: Denver Orders 88 Pepper-Pellet Guns
Thousands Of Protesters Expected For DNC

DENVER -- A manufacturer of a non-lethal gun that shoots balls filled with a pepper spray-like substance says Denver is asking that an order of 88 guns be delivered in advance of the Democratic National Convention.
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 chatarra
I am betting on more arrests at DNC than GOP conventions this summer.
Vote on this question any way you see fit, but IMHO this market is not even going to be close.
The left has always led the way on demonstrations in the street.
Let's face it - they are usually younger and more enthusiastic than the right.

Recreate68 has vowed to create havoc at the convention, although they claim to support non violence while protesting various issues. I still live near Denver and called it home for 48 years. I hope there is not any violence, but I am not betting on it. See below what some of their concerns are and then try in your wildest dreams to see the GOP faithful leading similar or equivalent protests in Minneapolis.

http://recreate68.com/?page_id=30
During the convention, there will be five major protests, one each day. Each protest will focus on a symptom of the disease of an imperialist, capitalist, racist system as seen in our communities. Some of the proposed themes are as follows:

* Sunday - End All Occupations at Home and Abroad
* Monday - Human Rights/Free All Political Prisoners
* Tuesday - No Borders
* Wednesday - No Warming
* Thursday - No Racism/Imperialism

As actions develop, we will post more information.
posted 22 weeks ago
  3 Erik
Good point, all, chatarra. However...those are the protesters that may show up to demonstrate at the GOP convention.
posted 22 weeks ago
  4 chatarra
@Erik - Interesting point
You would think they would get more traction with their protest, if it were held at the GOP Convention. I cannot explain it, but I predict they are going to protest at the very group that is more likely to support their cause - DNC. Now they are threatening to put the protesters behind a fence where they cannot interfere as much.
ACLU is already stepping in (as they should)

http://origin.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_9744092
This is absolutely going to backfire. Better off to let them vent their frustrations, but still be heard.
posted 22 weeks ago
  5 chatarra
FBI to descend on Denver for Dem event
http://www.politicswest.com/26452/fbi_descend_denver_dem_event

. . . "Host Ryan Warner asked about the number of additional FBI agents that will be in town.
"I don't want to say exactly how many, but I can tell you that it's in the hundreds," replied Davis."
posted 22 weeks ago
Protesters gearing up for the political conventions

Liberal activists plan to take a bipartisan approach to their demonstrations: Republicans and Democrats will be targeted.

<http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-protests7-2008jul07,0,5955999.story>
posted 21 weeks ago
The punks and rabble rousers are getting warmed up... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_diU0PTozc
posted 14 weeks ago
  8 chatarra
106 people in court this morning alone
http://www.9news.com/news/local/article.aspx?storyid=98435&catid=346
posted 14 weeks ago
  9 chatarra
Tuesday night was very quiet with few arrests.
Early this morning, Civic Center Park (the meeting location for the main protest group) was fenced off to the public - in preparation for Taste of Colorado, next weekend.
posted 14 weeks ago
  10 chatarra
Well heck! I will lose HD$ on this one.

Settlement requested Today 4:27am MDT by chatarra: Can be settled as GOP.
(Where were these idiots, last week, when I really needed them. . .)

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/usa/news/article_1428240.php/Nearly_300_arrested_outside_Republican_convention_
Nearly 300 arrested outside Republican convention
posted 13 weeks ago
Darn it. Me too. I was hoping everyone would be too busy worrying about Gustav to protest. Oh well...
posted 13 weeks ago
  12 yonemoto
HUH? 1) M&C hardly qualifies as "mainstream news source". Also, can we at least have total numbers on the DNC as well as the RNC?
posted 13 weeks ago
What yonemoto said.
posted 13 weeks ago
  14 bout3fitty
Total on the DNC was reported by the Denver Post as 152 I believe. The Minneapolis Star Tribune has preliminary numbers of 818 for the RNC with final tallies scheduled for this evening.
posted 12 weeks ago
  16 bout3fitty
Post article:
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_10381808
posted 12 weeks ago
  17 cognos[Power User]
who'd a thunk?
posted 12 weeks ago
  18 bout3fitty
Actually, history repeats. In 2004 there were 1800 arrests in NYC at the RNC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Republican_National_Convention_protest_activity

I have only looked briefly but cannot find mention of arrests at the 2004 DNC in Boston. I assume there were some but there must not have been loads of them.
posted 12 weeks ago
  19 bout3fitty
Finally found a 8/2004 NY Times article that indicates a maximum of 7 arrests for DNC 2004:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/28/politics/campaign/28protest.html?ei=5090&en=2cee4e125a34a437&ex=1251432000&partner=rssuserland&pagewanted=all&position=
posted 12 weeks ago

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