Created Tue 17th Jun 8:29pm PDT by 
conservatives_suck
All questions » Politics » US Politics » conservatives_suck 
Will same-sex marriages performed this summer in CA be declared invalid after November election?
Current forecast: 18% chance 
1%
1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 18% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)
If the CA Constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage passes in November, it is currently unclear if the marriages performed in the interim, 6/16/08 thru election day, will remain legal and valid.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source. If the resolution banning gay marriage passes in November, the market will be unsuspended. It will then stay open until 2009, in which case if no news has yet reported that the marriages are invalid or a court case is not open pending, the market will be settled.
Make your prediction!
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$7,954
Question suspends in 25 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 3rd Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Tue 17th Jun 8:29pm PDT by conservatives_suck
conservatives_suck
Clarified Sat 5th Jul 3:59pm PDT by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
: If the resolution banning gay marriage passes in November, the market will be unsuspended. It will then stay open until 2009, in which case if no news has yet reported that the marriages are invalid the market will be settled.
ryanj: If the resolution banning gay marriage passes in November, the market will be unsuspended. It will then stay open until 2009, in which case if no news has yet reported that the marriages are invalid the market will be settled.
Suspended Sun 2nd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Suspended Sun 2nd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Sat 8th Nov 6:39pm PST by 
destry
destry
Changed Suspend date Sat 8th Nov 6:54pm PST by destry: was: "2008-11-02 23:59:00"
destry: was: "2008-11-02 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Sat 8th Nov 6:54pm PST by destry
destry
Suspend date: Wed 3rd Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (25 weeks to go)
more info...
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score: 10
Xinhuanet 2 weeks ago
LOS ANGELES, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- California's supreme court has moved to tackle the latest legal battle over same-sex marriage, which has been banned earlier this month after voters approved a conservative measure in the election
score: 10
Xinhuanet 2 weeks ago
LOS ANGELES, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- California's supreme court has moved to tackle the latest legal battle over same-sex marriage, which has been banned earlier this month after voters approved a conservative measure in the election
score: 10
Guardian Unlimited 2 weeks ago
State's high court also intends to decide the fate of same-sex weddings performed in the past five months McClatchy newspapers Hank Donat holds a sign during a protest against Proposition
score: 10
The Times South Africa 2 weeks ago
Californias Supreme Court will hear three lawsuits which challenge the states recently passed referendum to effectively ban same-sex marriage, a statement said today. In a result that has provoked nationwide protest by gay rights activists, Californians
score: 10
Sydney Morning Herald 2 weeks ago
suits which challenge the state's recently passed referendum to effectively ban same-sex marriage, a statement said Wednesday. In a result that has provoked nationwide protest by gay rights activists, Californians approved a proposal in
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conservatives_suck
50% of previous questions settled successfully
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4 settled, 4 voided
In order to keep this market from having no clear end date this clarifcation has been edited in:
If the resolution banning gay marriage passes in November, the market will be unsuspended. It will then stay open until 2009, in which case if no news has yet reported that the marriages are invalid the market will be settled.
Regards,
Ryan
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