Will the DJIA reach a new 52 week low in June?

I'm seeing the 52 week low as 11,508.70:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

I can't explain it but here are 3 more that say 11,634.82
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.index_today?pi_symbol=DJIA-I&pi_action=
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=%24Indu
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/markets/detail/marketdetail.asp?marketCode=US%26DJI

Perhaps the difference is in Yahoo's description of the 52 week "range". My guess (and this is strictly a guess), is that Yahoo includes the fluctuations throughout the day and in calculating the 52 week "low", strictly speaking, those fluyctuations are not included - only the closing average is.

For the purpose of this market, I recommend that we use the 52 week low given most often (11634.82) and if, during some day's trading between now and June 30th, it reaches 11634.81, it will be settled as yes.

But let the democracy begin. Is there dissention?

It's worth noting that I do not participate in my own markets.

Again, it's my understanding that the diffence between the two numbers is explained above. I'm open to suggestions but I've seen more difficult markets to settle. This has quantifyable objectives and hard dates.

Hi guys, I think it's fair to say that 11634.82 is the 'low' as this figure is given the most often. Also, swilson has noted in the background text the specific figure that needs to be reached in order for the question to settle yes. Do we agree, shall I re-open the market?

I'd like robmar and destry to comment as they were the ones that first voiced a concern. In any case though, I hope we can re-open this soon as we've lost a day and a half of trading and even though I'm not participating in this market, I'm competitive and had hoped it would get a lot of activity.

please re-open.

Just a reminder, admins rarely read through all the comments. If you want this reopened, you need to flag it. Failing that (i.e. if you've flagged something and received no response for 12-24 hours, use the Contact Us link at the bottom of the page).

Jennie, thanks for the tip, I did flag it some time yesterday, I don't recall if it was in the morning or evening. I'll try the Contact Us link.

I let Donal know that question needs re-opened. I just want there to be clarification of which link we are going to use to settle, and which number we are going to use as the low. Once we have established those two points, I am all in for this quesiton. I think it is creative and an unique market that benefits the hubdub community.

I use http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/. And again, the market is that if the average reaches or falls below 11,634.81 throughout any day, even if it closes higher, this market should be settled as yes.

@destry - Donal? Do you mean Rob?

No problem, Are we agreed on 'reaches or falls below 11,634.81'? If so then I will re-open it, I think it's fair from the background.

I agree, but who cares what I think - I'm not participating in it. That was the intent though.

@jenni - yes I meant Rob. I am using a new setup that has 4 monitors and I had a donal question up on another screen. Technology is out of hand.

4 monitors, gee that's so difficult, feel so sorry for you...

<disgusted, sarcastic and very jealous>

Me and 4 monitors, my A.D.D affected mind would short circuit, give up and shut down.

Hi all. I have no problem using the figure swilson quoted, if that's the correct number. I just wanted to make sure we're all on the same page. Let's open 'er up!

Actually, I just thought about it a little more and here's what I've come up with:

I think that if we're going to use the 11,634.82 number that was established by CLOSING price then the market should also have to CLOSE under that number so that it establishes a new low, as measured by the sites that swilson has specified. If we wanted the market to settle if the DJIA dips below the magic number at any point during the day then the 11,508.70 number should be used.

If we don't do it this way then we could have the market dip below 11,634.82 but actually close above that number and under the settlement rules it would be settled as yes since it did dip below the magic number at some point. HOWEVER, the crazy thing about that would be that the sites we're using for our settlement figure wouldn't recognize that there was a new low established because they're using the closing number. That just doesn't seem right.

I hope that all made sense...

@robmar - that's a valid argument, but at this point I feel that we should stop worrying about which reference says what and just deal with the numbers given in the background. It clearly states the threshold and that it doesn't have to close there, just hit it during trading. Any change to either of those elements in mid play puts the integrity of the market into question in my opinion.

Fair enough. The important thing is just that we know how it will be settled and that has been established.

robmar, I agree with you and thought about that after the yahoo DJIA 52 week low was provided. To account for the daily fluctuations as the settlement describes, we will need to use http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI AND http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/.

@swilson- I'm a little confused but I think I get it. You want to use the Yahoo site for settlement purposes so that we can tell how low the DJIA goes now (since it apparently counts all movement and not just closing prices) but we're still using the 11,634.82 figure off of the CNN site as the benchmark figure. Is that correct?

Exactly!

Ya'all understand this market, right? It just came within 32 points of being settled as Yes and the odds are still sitting at 79% no? I REALLY wish I hadn't instituted my "Don't wager on your own markets rule"........

It's now within 11 points. I have wagered and will wager more.

@infernal - that was fast - you had it suspended w/i seconds! good work.

I could have made a FORTUNE!

Shoot- wish I could have followed this more closely. Not gonna complain too much though- on vacation in Hawaii :D