Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

Will the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer fly to the ISS?

Settled as Yes

A bill that would add an extra flight to the space shuttle's agenda cleared the Senate late Thursday.
Advertisement

The measure, the NASA Authorization Act of 2008, would also authorize a $2.6 billion budget increase over what President Bush has proposed for the agency next year. That figure includes $1 billion to help accelerate the development of the shuttle's replacement.

The bill would authorize NASA to conduct an extra shuttle mission to deliver the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer to the International Space Station.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080926/NEWS02/809260342/1006/NEWS01

Background:

The House on Wednesday [June 18th] approved a $20 billion NASA spending bill that calls for an extra Space Shuttle flight before the spacecraft program is shut down.
The purpose of the additional flight would be to deliver to the International Space Station the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer for experiments in seeking out unusual matter in space.
But the bill drew opposition from the Bush administration.
The $1.5 billion project, a collaborative effort of 16 countries sponsored by the Department of Energy, could offer unique insights into how the universe was formed. But after the Columbia tragedy in 2003, NASA said the shuttle would not be able to transport the 15,000-pound instrument to the space station because of technical and scheduling issues.
The bill still needs Senate consideration and actual spending amounts are determined in annual appropriations bills.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gcnBjFK9OFdsbwFHQwKZEq0uMriwD91CNQA80
Additional notes: the impressive 1.5 bln costs are spent mostly by foreign countries and scientific organisations; the US' participation in the funds is relatively small.
Many scientists call the AMS 'the only real and valuable scientific experiment on the ISS'. The refusal of NASA to deliver the AMS to the ISS sparked massive international opposition.
More about The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Magnetic_Spectrometer

Important: we do not have to wait the real delivery of the AMS to the ISS to settle the question; this will happen (if at all) in 2010.
Question settle when the bill is formally and deffinitively approved by the Congress and by the president (who oppose such an additional flight) and/or the AMS shuttle flight is shown on the NASA's launch manifest of the remaining space shuttle missions to the ISS.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
87%
No
13%
Activity: H$25,581
Settled as Yes on Wed 15th Oct 11:06pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 11:06pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Wed 18th Jun 10:55pm PDT by orlin
Suspended Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Wed 1st Oct 3:37am PDT by tisha[Admin]: was: "2008-09-30 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Wed 1st Oct 3:38am PDT by tisha[Admin]: The suspend date has been moved forward, as the full senate have not yet come to a decision on the AMS bill. The suspend date will continue to be moved forward until there is a definitive answer.
Suspended Wed 15th Oct 10:48pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: checking settlement sources
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 15th Oct 11:06pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: A bill that would add an extra flight to the space shuttle's agenda cleared the Senate late Thursday.
Advertisement

The measure, the NASA Authorization Act of 2008, would also authorize a $2.6 billion budget increase over what President Bush has proposed for the agency next year. That figure includes $1 billion to help accelerate the development of the shuttle's replacement.

The bill would authorize NASA to conduct an extra shuttle mission to deliver the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer to the International Space Station.

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080926/NEWS02/809260342/1006/NEWS01

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go) Settlement date: Wed 15th Oct 11:06pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 27th Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (21)

21 predictions

7 weeks ago
chrisfmasse predicted Yes (H$1 at 88%)
8 weeks ago
darklighter predicted Yes (H$50 at 88%)
8 weeks ago
shojun predicted Yes (H$400 at 87%)
12 weeks ago
scott_tate54 predicted No (H$100 at 13%)
14 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Yes (H$100 at 88%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 gadget666
what if some other country launches it, or it is done via a rocket? there is more than one way to get it up there.
posted 12 weeks ago
  2 tisha[Admin]
Hi gadget666 - thanks for your comment. Based on the last paragraph of the background details, I think this question is asking specifically whether the full Senate will pass the bill to allow funding for the AMS to be transported as currently planned by NASA, so if another country launched it or it was transported via rocket it would be voided.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alpha_Magnetic_Spectrometer

Also worth noting that the suspend date of this question will be extended until there is a definitive yes or no answer from the full senate.
posted 12 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more