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Amount $ refunded 2 taxpayers if either Obama or McCain abstain from Pres public financing system?

Voided

The way the market is structured is going to be to confusing for users to understand. Also I doubt money would be refunded to tax payers. I'm really just worried that the market is too complex for a user to get through. Perhaps redesigning it into something that is simpler and relies on less "2" instead of to

Background:

American generously chipped in money on their tax forms to create a fund known as the Presidential Public Financing System to assist candidates with the expensive proposition of running for President.

Now, one or both of the primary candidates may choose not to access these funds and the rules that are linked to them.

This market is noticing that rarely does money, even money unused for its original purposes, flow back from the Federal Government to the taxpayers. Will this year be an exception to the rule?

In a related market…Will pigs be seen flying prior to election day?


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

All donated $ rebated to original taxpaying donors
1%
Any % of $ rebated to orig taxpaying donors
2%
Any gen tax relief for taxpayers relative to fund
2%
A "Thanks, but we're keeping it." notice from DC
5%
No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept
90%
Voided Fri 20th Jun 8:22am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: All donated $ rebated to original taxpaying donors: 1%, Any % of $ rebated to orig taxpaying donors : 2%, Any gen tax relief for taxpayers relative to fund: 2%, A "Thanks, but we're keeping it." notice from DC : 5%, No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept: 90%

Action history:

Created Thu 19th Jun 10:26am PDT by valornhonor[Power User]
Voided Fri 20th Jun 8:22am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: The way the market is structured is going to be to confusing for users to understand. Also I doubt money would be refunded to tax payers. I'm really just worried that the market is too complex for a user to get through. Perhaps redesigning it into something that is simpler and relies on less "2" instead of to

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (9)

9 predictions

24 weeks ago
bearguy predicted No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept (H$100 at 90%)
24 weeks ago
onedave[Power User] predicted No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept (H$20 at 89%)
24 weeks ago
swilson predicted No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept (H$100 at 88%)
24 weeks ago
anaverageamerican predicted No Thank you, no rebates, no anything, $ is kept (H$50 at 88%)

Comments (7)

Hey all you egalitarian 1040 Presidential Public Financing System donors, don't bother hanging around your mailbox waiting for your rebate...
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 randburg
"In a related market…Will pigs be seen flying prior to election day?"

As the idiom refers to an "almost impossible situation" and not necessarily to "pigs", we saw that yesterday at Tim Russert's funeral and memorial service. Not only did his funeral bring total opposition together under civilized circumstances, but we also heard that candidates McCain and Obama sat next to each other through the service and embraced at the end of the service...The Democratic Party has been scrambling -- so far unconvincingly -- to look unified. But here at this service we see the two most influential men of the moment in the United States sitting together voluntarily, peacefully, and unified. Tim Russert must be smiling...
posted 24 weeks ago
Tim Russert is not smiling, he's dying (pardon the expression) to ask each candidate several pointed questions. If tax rebates are announced due to the candidates refusing public financing, I think, "flying pigs", will be the least of our worries. "Hell freezing over", is likely more apropos.
posted 24 weeks ago
With one of the canidates (Obama, Barack H) already refusing the public funding, this election cycle is shaping up to give us the finest president that money can buy!
posted 24 weeks ago
@aaa Speaking of Tim Russert, this video is on topic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELoKGvOwSI4
posted 23 weeks ago
Where Does Obama’s Public Finance Money Go?

"Now that Barack Obama has opted out of public financing for the general, it means John McCain is the only one taking cash from the public coffers. So if you checked off the $3 donation box on your tax returns—the source of national public campaign financing—your money is going to McCain and McCain alone. What happens to the cash Obama would have gotten?

"It stays in the coffers. The Treasury maintains a Presidential Election Campaign Fund that rolls over from year to year. When you select the $3 check-off option on your annual tax returns, it goes directly into the fund, which gets allocated to primary candidates, general candidates, and the party nominating conventions. The amount each candidate receives in public funds depends on the amount raised. This year, each general-election candidate is eligible to receive $84.1 million in public funds.

"So how much money is left over now that Obama is out? The fund’s balance at the end of May was $192.6 million, according to FEC spokesman Bob Biersack. That means the FEC will have more than $100 million left over to fund this year’s conventions and future campaigns.

"In other words, taxpayers don’t have to worry (or celebrate) that their money is going only to John McCain. He’s not getting a larger portion of the $3 donations—the extra cash just gets allocated to other areas."

By Christopher Beam <http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/>
posted 23 weeks ago
Fictitious Donors Found in Obama Finance Records
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/us/politics/10donate.html?ref=politics
posted 7 weeks ago

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