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Will the ban on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf be lifted by June, 2009?

Settled as Yes

The ban on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf has been in place for 26 years. This prohibits us from drilling for oil or natural gas in the Outer Continental Shelf. The ban is in place because of the environmental risks of drilling operations.


With gas prices at such high levels though American are looking for anything to help fix the situation. Obama is against the drilling while Bush and McCain support it. Drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf though would take years to set up. The new reserves wouldn't actually start pumping for some time. While the drilling may cheapen gas it wouldn't solve the fundamental problem the nation faces, getting off of oil.


Good Background Article as referenced by Destry


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

The ban must be lifted by Congress in order for the President to override the executive order protecting the Outer Continental Shelf.

The ban must be lifted for the market to settle as a yes.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
80%
No
20%
Activity: H$80,172
Settled as Yes on Sat 27th Sep 6:19pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (29 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 6:19pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Sep 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 19th Jun 1:25pm PDT by punditwatch[Admin]
Suspended Mon 14th Jul 8:55am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user:

Suspended pending review of breaking news.

11:55AM EDT on July 14, 2008
Unsuspended Tue 15th Jul 1:49am PDT by tisha[Admin]: President's announcement has not effect on this market
Settlement requested Wed 24th Sep 5:51am PDT by Erik: "Democrats to let offshore drilling ban expire"
By ANDREW TAYLOR, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 27 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Democrats have decided to allow a quarter-century ban on drilling for oil off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to expire next week, conceding defeat in a months-long battle with the White House and Republicans set off by $4 a gallon gasoline prices this summer.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_go_co/offshore_drilling
Suspended Wed 24th Sep 10:59am PDT by destry[Admin]: Suspended pending settlment review.
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 12:41pm PDT by Erik: Passed the House Wednesday and the Senate today:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080927/ap_on_go_co/congress_spending_9
Please settle
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 12:45pm PDT by Erik: "...oil companies won elimination of a long-standing ban on drilling off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts ..."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080927/ap_on_go_co/congress_spending_9
Settlement requested Sat 27th Sep 5:47pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/27/senate-passes-600-billion-spending-bill/


Apparently it is lifted
Settled as 'Yes' Sat 27th Sep 6:19pm PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 1st Jul 2009 12:59am PDT (29 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 6:19pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 24th Sep 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (151)

151 predictions

10 weeks ago
alextankard predicted No (H$19 at 20%)
10 weeks ago
fastfreddy predicted Yes (H$100 at 80%)
10 weeks ago
jensir predicted Yes (H$100 at 80%)
10 weeks ago
ilyah predicted Yes (H$100 at 80%)
10 weeks ago
gianmy predicted No (H$20 at 19%)
more

Comments (40)

The background for this question is biased, although many people are misled to commonly believe these things.

There have never been large scale environmental disasters anywhere that were caused by drilling. In fact, drilling close to home is good for the environment. The majority of environmental disasters are caused by spills, and tankers that carry oil long distances increase the risk of another environmental disaster.

Drilling closer to home means less exposure to that risk, in addition to a supply that would be less dependant on a politically volatile part of the world.
posted 24 weeks ago
"While the drilling may cheapen gas it wouldn't solve the fundamental problem the nation faces, getting off of oil. "

I like oil. It's in my car, in my food, in most of the products I use and enjoy. I don't want off oil, I want more

posted 24 weeks ago
"But even if lawmakers acted tomorrow, it would be years before the infrastructure could be put in place to support additional drilling."

Exactly! All the more reason to get busy NOW! We should have fixed this decades ago.
posted 24 weeks ago
How about these points:

"Even if we taught a kid to read tomorrow, it would be YEARS before he graduated..."
"Even if we started a space program tomorrow, it would be years before we reached the moon..."
"Even if we declare independance on July 4, 1776, it would be years before we defeat the British..."
... and so forth, for EVERY major milestone in life or the history of this country.
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 markov
Total agreement with all above comments. Thank God there is still some sanity in this world! We're in the fix we're in because "let's only do what helps right now" crowd have had their way for 30 years.
posted 23 weeks ago
On NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, the speaker (Nancy Pelosi) twice seemed to suggest that natural gas – an energy source she favors – is not a fossil fuel.
“I believe in natural gas as a clean, cheap alternative to fossil fuels,” she said at one point. Natural gas “is cheap, abundant and clean compared to fossil fuels,” she said at another.

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/08/25/fuel-for-debate-pelosi-suggests-natural-gas-isnt-a-fossil-fuel/

too funny!
posted 14 weeks ago
  7 Erik
House to vote on drilling this week: Pelosi
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080909/pl_nm/usa_energy_congress_dc
posted 12 weeks ago
@Erik: great news! the article even says that it will "repeal some tax cuts for the oil industry." Let's hope it passes!
posted 12 weeks ago
God I hope so.

Funny that it's only politicians that spew crap about drilling taking so long. Oil companies tap oil in as little as a year when the conditions are right. Glad to hear the speaker of the house is about to give democracy a chance.

Without getting into too much of a flame war -- This argument came up 10 years ago and our president did not allow drilling because benefits would be a decade away.

Welcome to the now!
posted 12 weeks ago
  10 coolkraft
one can only dream....
posted 12 weeks ago
  11 dieseldog
The clock is ticking on the congressional moratorium on access to billions of barrels of domestic oil beneath American waters. President Bush already rescinded the White House prohibitions on access to this energy, so the congressional restrictions are the only thing standing between 19 billion barrels of additional domestic oil and the citizens who need it. If Congress does not act to renew these outdated, anti-energy, and anti-consumer restrictions, these areas will be opened to exploration and drilling beginning on October 1.

http://www.heritage.org/research/energyandenvironment/wm2016.cfm
posted 12 weeks ago
  12 rbrog77
Actually, if congress did nothing to act the ban would be lifted on Oct 1 as that's when it runs out. Last night the house did vote to permit drilling, but it depends on what states say about it and limits it to 50 miles off shore. Senate has less than 2 weeks.

Be interesting to see where Joe Bama and McSame come down on this.
posted 11 weeks ago
  13 lola
When it comes to oil, reducing demand is better than increasing supply.
posted 11 weeks ago
  14 kruijs[Power User]
well said, lola
I'm confident that most americans see it this way which is way this question settled "no"
http://www.hubdub.com/m9649/Will_Drill_Here_Drill_Now_petition_reach_2_million_signatures_by_7152008
posted 11 weeks ago
  15 dieseldog
the house bill has very little chance of getting through the senate. the house bill was a cover for dems in the up coming election. dick durbin (a dem) said the house bill won't pass. so lets say the senate passes a bill. it won't pass the house. that leaves us with rbrog77's point. they won't pass anything togeather so the ban is lifted. crossing my fingers that will happen.
posted 11 weeks ago
  16 dieseldog
@kruijs..most americans favor more drilling. that one website doesn't mean nothing. how many americans knew about it? obama wants to mandate conservation to reduce oil consumption. you want a politician telling you how much engery you can or can't use?
posted 11 weeks ago
  17 kruijs[Power User]
"most americans favor more drilling" really? How do you know?

To answer your question:
Why are you restricted by a speed limit on highways? Didn't the politicians stop you from driving as fast as you want there?
Extreme example: Didn't they make a law which tells us killing people ain't allowed? Do you want a politician telling you how much people you can or cannot kill?

Politicians make laws. Politicians are telling us all along what we are allowed and what not.
It's their duty to protect people from doing stupid things, harm each other, and therefor to impose restrictions.

It's their job.
posted 11 weeks ago
@kruijs: Most Americans do favor drilling... that is why the congress put this fake bill through, so that it could appear they wanted to do something about it, and still comply with their bit money donors, who do not want any drilling. They are hoping most Americans do not find out the details about the bill, so they can improve their current lowest approval rating ever.

About the other points:
Speed limits are random. There are places with no posted speed limits. People are (and should be) responsible for their own actions. Laws do not tell us it is wrong to kill people - our own morals tell us that. Laws just give enforcement and justice departments something they can do when it happens, but I personally (and I trust most here on Hubdub) do not refrain from killing people simply because it is illegal!

Politicians make laws - many of the laws are redundant, confusing, or contradict themselves. Laws do not give moral clarity to people - in fact most people are unaware of most of the laws on the books. We make wise decisions because we are capable of it on our own.

It's our job. :-)
posted 11 weeks ago
  19 Erik
And there, in a nutshell, is the basic differance between politically liberal and conservative.
*It's their job
*It's our job
posted 11 weeks ago
  20 dieseldog
@kruijs..living in the USA i see the polls all saying the people want more drilling. can i prove that...no i can't. its not the politicans job to tell me how much engery i can or can't use. if i wanna keep my house at 80 thats my right. i don't want them telling me i have to keep it at 70 to save engery. your example of murdering people is way out there..no comment on that. the less govt does the better imho. you want the govt protecting you by making "laws" to tell you how to conduct your life thats your right. i tend to prefer to run my life the way i see fit.
posted 11 weeks ago
They are lifting the federal ban, but I don't see Florida and California lifting the state ban....being from Louisiana, I can attest to the "browning" of the water and beaches by the oil industry, but our beaches were never tourist havens....Plus the earthquakes off California would probably play a large part in the decision making....Wahington and Oregon would certainly not want drilling off of their pristine shores..... this issue is a distraction from the real issues in this election...
posted 11 weeks ago
  22 dieseldog
@tocm...you don't think oil and oil drilling are an issue in this election?
posted 11 weeks ago
No, I'm saying that the right is making it an issue, when they really have no authority when it comes to the states' rights to ban offshore drilling in their state... We have an addiction to oil, and you don't cure an addict by giving him easier access to his drug of choice. If Florida allowed drilling off of it's coast, it would take only one mishap to ruin hundreds of miles of beaches: bye bye tourism, bye bye deep sea fishing.
posted 10 weeks ago
  24 dieseldog
well you'll be happy to know the bill the house passed that lifted the ban,(100 miles or further off shore b4 you can drill)doesn't give the states any royalities from the oil produced. so that makes it even less likely the states will be in a hurry to lift their bans. the house bill was a shame..it won't become law.
posted 10 weeks ago
@theonecalledmichael: I was just thinking about this - it is like congress wants to bring back prohibition days, only this time with oil. your addiction parallel was interesting - great minds think alike!

I will say though, that there are beaches out in California that would be improved if they would drill. There is natural seepage coming through the sand & if they would only drill, that would go away.
posted 10 weeks ago
  26 rbrog77
From MSNBC - The House late Tuesday approved on a 236-189 vote legislation that would open waters 50 miles off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts to oil and natural gas development — if the adjacent states agree to go along.

The legislation now goes to the Senate, where Democratic leaders are expected to mold it to their liking in the next few days.

Looks like some form of lifting is on it's way.
posted 10 weeks ago
Wooo Hooo!!! - Arnold S (I can't spell his last name) could balance his budget and contribute to our energy needs.
posted 10 weeks ago
@fof Swartzaniger? Swaurtsanigger? Suartzaniiger?
@all I wonder what terms the democrats will try to add on to this deal. Higher taxes and lots of restrictions on environmental effects would be my guess.
posted 10 weeks ago
  29 dieseldog
notice the 50 miles off shore. thats to cover the dems in the election. all the oil is inside the 50 mile zone. this way the dems can say they voted for more drilling...knowing full well no drilling will take place.
posted 10 weeks ago
  30 dieseldog
looks like dueling reports.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,426764,00.html



Democrats to Let Offshore Drilling Ban Expire, Conceding Defeat in Battle With GOP
WASHINGTON — Democrats have decided to allow a quarter-century ban on drilling for oil off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to expire next week, conceding defeat in a months-long battle with the White House and Republicans set off by $4 a gallon gasoline prices this summer.
posted 10 weeks ago
  31 Erik
Settlement time
posted 10 weeks ago
  32 Erik
diesl> not conflicting at all. If you read further, you'll find that the Dems have realized that their bill won't go thru:
"Democrats had clung to the hope of only a partial repeal of the drilling moratorium, but the White House had promised a veto, Obey said."
""The White House has made it clear they will not accept anything with a drilling moratorium, and Democrats know we cannot afford to shut down the government over this," said Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid."
posted 10 weeks ago
  33 Erik
"Democrats to let offshore drilling ban expire"
By ANDREW TAYLOR, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 27 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Democrats have decided to allow a quarter-century ban on drilling for oil off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts to expire next week, conceding defeat in a months-long battle with the White House and Republicans set off by $4 a gallon gasoline prices this summer.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080924/ap_on_go_co/offshore_drilling
posted 10 weeks ago
  34 dieseldog
@erik..i ment conflicting as in rb's link to the one i posted. as far as settling it might be wise to wait. Boehner said (in link i posted) "If true, this capitulation by Democrats following months of Republican pressure is a big victory for Americans struggling with record gasoline prices," said House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio." ya never know what congress will do. i think its 99% likely to be lifted.
posted 10 weeks ago
  35 rbrog77
Thing is even after the congressional moritorium is lifted oil companies have to deal with state bans.
posted 10 weeks ago
These wishy washy senators. I think that after they realize there thin shams arent working there going to choose votes over principles and lift this stupid ban
posted 10 weeks ago
  37 curios
what did Sinatra say ,,,,,i did it my way lol
posted 10 weeks ago
Drill and take it out. That is why it is in there. You can't write a blog about pollution, Fat Cats or starvation without power. Buying things from people who want us dead is cooperating with them.

When I move to a country I could jog across in 2 days or has zero natural resources my outlook may change. If you own anything from IKEA you are a timber and oil hog. If you use public transportation or big electric things you are burning fossil.
posted 10 weeks ago
thats good. Maybe now we can cut off those damn terrorists from a major income supply.
posted 9 weeks ago

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