Created Thu 19th Jun 3:03pm PDT by 
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Michelle Obama vs Cindy McCain: Who is the favorite in the next Rasmussen Reports poll?
Voided
Market voided. After waiting a month to see if results from a poll would be released, there is no further news, it is only fair to void market and quit tying up everyones wagers.
Background:
The ladies have been getting almost as much press as the actual candidates. Whether you agree with it or not, the fact remains that the potential first ladies are playing increasingly important rolls in this election.
Rasmussen released a poll on June 11th about showing Cindy McCain more favored by the American populace, but an ABC poll released this week has Michelle ahead. Michelle has also been actively working on her image, hiring new support staff, modifying her stump speeches and co-hosting the view. Will it make any difference?
Weighting the Very Unfavorable, Unfavorable, Undecided, Favorable and Very Favorable results by -2, -1, 0, 1 and 2 respectively, what will be the result of the next Rasmussen First Lady Poll? (Please see settlement details for example of June 11 calculation).
June 11 poll results:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/61_say_obama_mccain_wives_influence_vote
Relevant text from above link:
Michelle Obama, whose husband cinched the Democratic presidential nomination last week, is rated favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 42% of voters. That latter figure includes a startling 25% who have Very Unfavorable opinion of the potential First Lady. A statistically comparable 24% view her Very Favorably. Ten percent (10%) are undecided.
Cindy McCain, the wife of the Republican hopeful, earns favorable reviews from 49% while 29% offer an unfavorable assessment. She is viewed Very Unfavorably by only 10% of voters while 17% have a Very Favorable opinion of Mrs. McCain. In her case, 22% remain undecided.
Rasmussen released a poll on June 11th about showing Cindy McCain more favored by the American populace, but an ABC poll released this week has Michelle ahead. Michelle has also been actively working on her image, hiring new support staff, modifying her stump speeches and co-hosting the view. Will it make any difference?
Weighting the Very Unfavorable, Unfavorable, Undecided, Favorable and Very Favorable results by -2, -1, 0, 1 and 2 respectively, what will be the result of the next Rasmussen First Lady Poll? (Please see settlement details for example of June 11 calculation).
June 11 poll results:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/61_say_obama_mccain_wives_influence_vote
Relevant text from above link:
Michelle Obama, whose husband cinched the Democratic presidential nomination last week, is rated favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 42% of voters. That latter figure includes a startling 25% who have Very Unfavorable opinion of the potential First Lady. A statistically comparable 24% view her Very Favorably. Ten percent (10%) are undecided.
Cindy McCain, the wife of the Republican hopeful, earns favorable reviews from 49% while 29% offer an unfavorable assessment. She is viewed Very Unfavorably by only 10% of voters while 17% have a Very Favorable opinion of Mrs. McCain. In her case, 22% remain undecided.
Settlement details:
To find favorability:
-2: Very Unfavorable
-1: Unfavorable
0: Undecided
1: Favorable
2: Very Favorable
June 11 poll results:
Michelle Obama: -2*25 + -1*42 + 0*10 + 1*48 + 2*24 = 4
Cindy McCain : -2*10 + -1*29 + 0*22 + 1*49 + 2*17 = 34
Cindy McCain leads by 30 points
Note: I have no idea when the next first lady poll will be released, it may be in days or weeks. Rasmussen only states they will release such polls "periodically". The market will remain open until it is finally released.
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Cindy leads by 50 points or more |
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Cindy leads by at least 25 points but less than 50 |
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Cindy leads by less than 25 points |
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Michelle leads by less than 25 points |
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Michelle leads by at least 25 points, less than 50 |
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Michelle leads by 50 points or more |
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Voided Sun 14th Sep 6:57pm PDT
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST
Initial likelihoods: Cindy leads by 50 points or more: 10%, Cindy leads by at least 25 points but less than 50: 25%, Cindy leads by less than 25 points: 25%, Michelle leads by less than 25 points: 20%, Michelle leads by at least 25 points, less than 50: 15%, Michelle leads by 50 points or more: 5%
Action history:
Created Thu 19th Jun 3:03pm PDT by jenniandboys
jenniandboys
Suspended Tue 26th Aug 6:14am PDT by jenniandboys: Suspended pending settlement
jenniandboys: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 26th Aug 6:14am PDT by jenniandboys: suspended pending settlement (market suspended)
jenniandboys: suspended pending settlement (market suspended)
Settlement requested Tue 26th Aug 6:36am PDT by jenniandboys: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/39_see_michelle_obama_as_very_liberal
Here's an interesting case.. the data is available for premium members, but not for everyone. I'm not sure I'm willing to pay 20$ to settle the question.
I would be inclined to leave it suspended for a couple of days and see if someone else picks up the story with the full stats. (The last poll got quite a bit of media attention)
jenniandboys: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/39_see_michelle_obama_as_very_liberal
Here's an interesting case.. the data is available for premium members, but not for everyone. I'm not sure I'm willing to pay 20$ to settle the question.
I would be inclined to leave it suspended for a couple of days and see if someone else picks up the story with the full stats. (The last poll got quite a bit of media attention)
Settlement requested Thu 28th Aug 2:58pm PDT by 
faceman: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/39_see_michelle_obama_as_very_liberal
This story makes reference to a poll conducted on august 14th.
faceman: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/39_see_michelle_obama_as_very_liberal
This story makes reference to a poll conducted on august 14th.
Settlement requested Sun 14th Sep 6:39pm PDT by 
randburg: Can we maybe VOID this question rather than wait FOREVER for something to happen? We all have money tied up here now for months...
randburg: Can we maybe VOID this question rather than wait FOREVER for something to happen? We all have money tied up here now for months...
Voided Sun 14th Sep 6:57pm PDT by 
destry: Market voided. After waiting a month to see if results from a poll would be released, there is no further news, it is only fair to void market and quit tying up everyones wagers.
destry: Market voided. After waiting a month to see if results from a poll would be released, there is no further news, it is only fair to void market and quit tying up everyones wagers.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (82)
82 predictions
smidge76
15 weeks ago
chryslercraig predicted Cindy leads by at least 25 points but less than 50 (H$100 at 12%)
dragonfangxl
coolkraft
melofan
anaverageamerican
monkiss
bayoubear
tomg
valornhonor![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted Cindy leads by less than 25 points (H$150 at 48%)
alison78
sdchargersComments (9)
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score: 10
Miami Herald 14 weeks ago
Michelle Obama? The nation will get some answers Monday night when the wife of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama delivers a prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention. It's a coming-out address designed to introduce
score: 10
NPR 14 weeks ago
to be dressed casually. She's always got to be a bit above.'Fashionable in an accessible way. That's why Michelle Obama was named to 2008 International says list curator Amy Fine Collins. 'She has a way of dressing that cuts across ethnic, color and
score: 10
Breitbart.com 15 weeks ago
Women Business Owners Would Prefer Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama and Cindy McCain As Business Partners WASHINGTON, Aug. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- As the battle for women voters heats up, one national survey has revealed that women business owners may
score: 10
Macro World Investor 16 weeks ago
an opinion. McKeever: Both of these women could themselves run for office and be very successful. I think Michelle Obama, in particular, is eminently relatable. She has passions and she's emotional and it's grand to see. She's raising her kids and she's
score: 10
Washington Post 17 weeks ago
have the time). People, Upscale, Essence, Ebony and Vanity Fair all feature either cover stories or profiles of Michelle Obama or the entire Obama family. (For some reason the cashier did not believe the blogsitter when he said he purchased the above
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jenniandboys
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On separate note but relating to polling - I had always wondered who these polling people were calling, I had never received a call - until today. The national republican party called and asked me a very detailed set of questions, there was probably 2 dozen questions on the list. So now if anyone asks if you know someone who was part of a poll, now you do.
I've been polled several times ... by CBS News, Gallup, and others.
@cheesenips...laughing at the beer distributor comment.
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