Will Senator Barack Obama vote for Telecom Immunity?

Suspend date: Tue 8th Jul 12am PDT Settlement date: Thu 10th Jul 9:18am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 9th Jul 12:50pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Votes for compromise agreement: 30%, Votes against compromise agreement: 50%, No Vote/Abstains/Bill does not up Senate vote: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 20th Jun 10:05am PDT by jamalpeter

Settlement requested Fri 20th Jun 11:05am PDT by ryanj

Suspended Sat 21st Jun 4:47am PDT by jenniandboys: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Sat 21st Jun 4:47am PDT by jenniandboys: suspended while i gather up some sources. (market suspended)

Settlement requested Sat 21st Jun 5am PDT by jenniandboys: Obama: "So, I support the compromise."

Text of Support:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/20/155839/542/779/539258

Times are trickier.. it looks like it was released pretty shortly after the question was created. 1545 EDT seems to be about the consensus (2.5 hrs after question creation) except for the first link, but I'm not sure on that timezone.

14:17 (timezone?) http://www.examiner.com/x-243-Progressive-Politics-Examiner~y2008m6d20-Obama-Backs-FISA-Compromise

16:02 EDT: http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/06/obama_on_fisa.html

15:47 EDT: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Obama_backs_FISA_compromise.html

16:08 EDT: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/20/155839/542/779/539258

15:56 EDT: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/201032.php

Settlement requested Sat 21st Jun 5:41am PDT by newswrangler:
This question is "Will Senator Barack Obama vote for immunity (and with his party leadership) or stand on principle?"

He has said he and Senator Reid will try to vote against the immunity portion of the vote.

This has not come to a vote.

This should be immediately un-suspended so that users can make predictions.

Settlement requested Sat 21st Jun 5:47am PDT by newswrangler:
From Politico.com
<http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0608/Reid_to_push_for_separate_vote_on_telecom_immunity.html>


"June 20, 2008

Reid to push for separate vote on telecom immunity

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told Bloomberg News on Friday that he will try and push for a separate vote on immunity for telecommunications companies when the Senate takes up electronic surveillance legislation next week.

``I'm going to try real hard to have a separate vote on immunity,'' Reid said in an interview to be aired this weekend on Bloomberg Television. ``Probably we can't take that out of the bill, but I'm going to try.''

On Friday, the House passed an update to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that called for a federal district court to review the legal justifications for granting immunity to the telecoms that participated in the wiretapping program.

Separating the bill would give political cover to Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who could vote for many of the updates to the 1978 FISA law, but could still vote against telecom immunity, an issue that has become a key flashpoint on the left."

Obama has also stated he will try to vote separately.

Time is of the essence on this question, as it suspends at NOON EDT.

It should be unsuspended NOW.

Settlement requested Sat 21st Jun 5:52am PDT by newswrangler:
Users certainly ought to be able to vote the "Abstains" option as well.

Unsuspended Sat 21st Jun 4:58pm PDT by ryanj: Because the vote has not yet occurred, we should wait till the vote and see what happens.

Suspended Sun 22nd Jun 9am PDT : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Thu 26th Jun 6:01pm PDT by ryanj: Telecom Immunity Bill, attached to FISA bill will not come to a vote until July 8

Clarified Mon 30th Jun 11:25am PDT by ryanj: No the settlement date is when the vote occurs

Suspended Tue 8th Jul 12am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Wed 9th Jul 12:59pm PDT by newswrangler:
Winning prediction: "Votes for compromise agreement"

<http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Terrorist-Surveillance.html?_r=1&oref=slogin>

Settled as 'Votes for compromise agreement' Thu 10th Jul 9:18am PDT by ryanj: http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00168

Suspend date: Tue 8th Jul 12am PDT Settlement date: Thu 10th Jul 9:18am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 9th Jul 12:50pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...