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Will Bob Barr cause John McCain to lose the election.

Settled as Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election

ATLANTA (AP) - A fiery former GOP congressman who gained national prominence for doggedly pursuing impeachment of President Clinton has some Republicans worried he'll play spoiler in a tight presidential contest.


Some Republicans aren't worried about Barr's candidacy. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said voting for Barr is the same as voting for Democrat Barack Obama, and said he's confident most GOP voters will understand that.


"No reasonable conservative is going to vote for anyone except McCain," Gingrich said. The Libertarian Party hasn't cracked 1 percent of the national popular vote in a presidential race. But it bills itself as the third-largest political party and is already on the ballot in 30 states, with petition drives this summer aiming at 20 others.


The toughest obstacles are likely to be in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Illinois and Washington, D.C., where ballot access rules are prohibitive, said Libertarian Party political director Sean Haugh.
But Barr may have the most impact in his home state of Georgia, where he is still well-known.


"I think John McCain is going to have to battle for Georgia, a state that was a gimme for George Bush," said Matt Towery, a former Republican state lawmaker in Georgia who runs a political media company. Georgia and its 15 electoral votes have been expected to go Republican on election night, and McCain spokesman Jeffrey Sadosky said he remained confident they still would.


Barr scoffs at talk that he will play spoiler, saying he is in the race to win it and it won't be his fault if McCain loses. "If Senator McCain is not successful, it will be because his message and his vision did not resonate with a plurality of the voters," Barr said in an interview with The Associated Press.



Settlement details: Settled as yes (Bob Barr causes loss): If votes for the Libertarian party in a state when added to the votes for McCain would have been enough to give McCain a victory AND the electoral votes from those states would been enough to give him a victory in the overall election.
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This question will be settled as Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election if one of the two scenarios occur. 1) The votes of the Libertarian Party when added to McCains votes weren't enough to win enough electoral votes to give McCain the victory. 2) John McCain wins election regardless of Libertarian Party votes.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Bob Barr caused McCain to lose the election.
8%
Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election
92%
Activity: H$12,764
Settled as Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election on Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Bob Barr caused McCain to lose the election.: 15%, Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election: 85%

Action history:

Created Sun 22nd Jun 1:40pm PDT by destry[Admin]
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 4th Nov 9:37pm PST by newswrangler[Power User]: Winning prediction = "Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election"

Barr had no effect on the electoral college vote.
Settled as 'Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election' Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (20)

20 predictions

4 weeks ago
rogerkni predicted Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election (H$1,000 at 91%)
5 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election (H$5 at 90%)
5 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election (H$5,000 at 83%)
6 weeks ago
jimmsolo predicted Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election (H$147 at 73%)
11 weeks ago
bedlam predicted Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election (H$200 at 77%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 destry[Admin]
I tried my best to come up with a market for the news story. I hope the settlement details are clear and cover all possibilities. If not please feel free to flag question. I haven't made a market in a while in which it involved the elections and have more respect now for those question creators who do it. I must have read and analyzed this thing to death.
posted 23 weeks ago
"No reasonable conservative is going to vote for anyone except McCain," Gingrich said.

Lettuce McCain hasn't given this reasonable conservative (me) any reasons to vote for him yet.
posted 23 weeks ago
  4 frank2877
Bob Barr isn't going to "cause John McCain to lose the election" because McCain is going to win. :-)
posted 12 weeks ago

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