
Will Bob Barr cause John McCain to lose the election.
Some Republicans aren't worried about Barr's candidacy. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said voting for Barr is the same as voting for Democrat Barack Obama, and said he's confident most GOP voters will understand that.
"No reasonable conservative is going to vote for anyone except McCain," Gingrich said. The Libertarian Party hasn't cracked 1 percent of the national popular vote in a presidential race. But it bills itself as the third-largest political party and is already on the ballot in 30 states, with petition drives this summer aiming at 20 others.
The toughest obstacles are likely to be in West Virginia, Oklahoma, Illinois and Washington, D.C., where ballot access rules are prohibitive, said Libertarian Party political director Sean Haugh.
But Barr may have the most impact in his home state of Georgia, where he is still well-known.
"I think John McCain is going to have to battle for Georgia, a state that was a gimme for George Bush," said Matt Towery, a former Republican state lawmaker in Georgia who runs a political media company. Georgia and its 15 electoral votes have been expected to go Republican on election night, and McCain spokesman Jeffrey Sadosky said he remained confident they still would.
Barr scoffs at talk that he will play spoiler, saying he is in the race to win it and it won't be his fault if McCain loses. "If Senator McCain is not successful, it will be because his message and his vision did not resonate with a plurality of the voters," Barr said in an interview with The Associated Press.
Settlement details:
Settled as yes (Bob Barr causes loss): If votes for the Libertarian party in a state when added to the votes for McCain would have been enough to give McCain a victory AND the electoral votes from those states would been enough to give him a victory in the overall election.
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This question will be settled as Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election if one of the two scenarios occur. 1) The votes of the Libertarian Party when added to McCains votes weren't enough to win enough electoral votes to give McCain the victory. 2) John McCain wins election regardless of Libertarian Party votes.
Settled
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Bob Barr caused McCain to lose the election. |
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Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election |
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Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Bob Barr caused McCain to lose the election.: 15%, Bob Barr did NOT cause McCain to lose the election: 85%
Action history:
Barr had no effect on the electoral college vote.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 9:38pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
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Predictions (20)
20 predictions
Comments (4)
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New in Politics » US Election 2008




http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Ralph_Naders_participation_in_the_presidential_election_cause_the_Dems_to_lose_the_pop_vote_3111/view
Lettuce McCain hasn't given this reasonable conservative (me) any reasons to vote for him yet.
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