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Will a Democrat or a Republican win the election for Vito Fossella's House seat?

Settled as Democratic candidate wins

The Republicans in the area of New York City didn't have very many seats in the House already, then truth and consequences caught up with Vito Fossella several weeks ago. Eventually, the GOP talked him out of running for re-election, and chose a candidate to take his place on the ballot.

But now, 67 year old millionaire Frank Powers has died of natural causes in his sleep. Now what will the Republicans do...is their another candidate in the wings that can possibly keep the seat in their hands? Even prior to Fossella's problems coming to light, the Democrats had already targeted the seat.

Who'll win in November?

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/newyork/ny-nypowe0623,0,1435012.story


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Democratic candidate wins
67%
Republican candidate wins
30%
Another candidate wins or another outcome
3%
Activity: H$4,024
Settled as Democratic candidate wins on Wed 5th Nov 8pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 8pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Democratic candidate wins: 55%, Republican candidate wins: 43%, Another candidate wins or another outcome: 2%

Action history:

Created Mon 23rd Jun 3:19am PDT by bayoubear[Admin]
Suspended Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 5th Nov 7:56pm PST by tarpash: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapHNY/H/13
Settled as 'Democratic candidate wins' Wed 5th Nov 8pm PST by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Nov 8pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

7 weeks ago
capecodviking predicted Democratic candidate wins (H$10 at 68%)
8 weeks ago
php_ini predicted Republican candidate wins (H$120 at 28%)
8 weeks ago
aland predicted Democratic candidate wins (H$200 at 70%)
8 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted Democratic candidate wins (H$187 at 69%)
8 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Democratic candidate wins (H$5 at 68%)
more

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