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Will McCain's proposed $300M prize for an improved car battery be awarded within 1 year?

Current forecast: 14% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 14% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
14%
No
86%
Activity: H$3,560
Question suspends in 28 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 21st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (28 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Mon 23rd Jun 1:32pm PDT by valornhonor[Power User]

Suspend date: Sun 21st Jun 2009 12:59am PDT (28 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (23)

23 predictions

2 weeks ago
andrewpmk predicted No (H$20 at 86%)
3 weeks ago
steve2007 predicted No (H$20 at 86%)
4 weeks ago
moqui predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
9 weeks ago
bravofour420 predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
14 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted No (H$100 at 86%)
more

Comments (2)

Only if he's elected Prez, and even then, maybe not :-)
posted 23 weeks ago
  2 gadget666
and that is a very big "if" then someone has to come up with a entirely new battery technology in a year, that hasnt been used before.
posted 14 weeks ago

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