Created Mon 23rd Jun 5:17pm PDT by 
mrperfkt![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
All questions » General » Crime » mrperfkt Will God be convicted of selling cocaine near a Tampa church by August 1st?
Voided
TAMPA, Fla. - Police say a man named God was arrested near a Tampa church for selling cocaine. Authorities began investigating God Lucky Howard in April, and he was arrested on Saturday. Police say he sold the cocaine to undercover detectives in his neighborhood. When officers searched his home, they reported finding another 22 grams of cocaine and a scale.
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Jail records show Howard was charged with several counts drug possession and distribution, which include increased charges for being within 1,000 feet of a church, a school and public housing.
He was being held on a bond of $86,500.
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I sincerely hope that this question does not offend anyone. I just could not resist this headline!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080623/ap_on_fe_st/god_arrest;_ylt=Alb7O10tYh7XUq.MkxC3e95I2ocA
http://www.abcactionnews.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3e885a23-b0c3-42c0-882d-fbf14dbab0f9
While it appears that there is a good chance of him being convicted, I set the starting odds just a little higher as there was a chance that this will not be resolved by August, that it will not appear in the news, etc.
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Jail records show Howard was charged with several counts drug possession and distribution, which include increased charges for being within 1,000 feet of a church, a school and public housing.
He was being held on a bond of $86,500.
_______
I sincerely hope that this question does not offend anyone. I just could not resist this headline!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080623/ap_on_fe_st/god_arrest;_ylt=Alb7O10tYh7XUq.MkxC3e95I2ocA
http://www.abcactionnews.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3e885a23-b0c3-42c0-882d-fbf14dbab0f9
While it appears that there is a good chance of him being convicted, I set the starting odds just a little higher as there was a chance that this will not be resolved by August, that it will not appear in the news, etc.
Voided
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Mon 23rd Jun 7:38pm PDT
Reason: Newswrangler makes a good point. Although it's likely he'll be convicted in the time frame given it is unlikely, or at least not worthy of 80% odds. Very nice market though so I'd just suggest a market with better odds and perhaps a further away suspend date.
Reason: Newswrangler makes a good point. Although it's likely he'll be convicted in the time frame given it is unlikely, or at least not worthy of 80% odds. Very nice market though so I'd just suggest a market with better odds and perhaps a further away suspend date.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 12:59am PDT
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 75%
Action history:
Created Mon 23rd Jun 5:17pm PDT by mrperfkt
mrperfkt
Suspended Mon 23rd Jun 6:50pm PDT by 
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user")
: Flagged by super user:
In my view, the chance of God being tried and convicted by August 1, 2008 are less than 1%.
Accordingly, a starting likelihood of 25% "No" is widely off. (Were this question to stand, I would wager all my H$ on "no" ;-)
All States courts are backlogged, underfunded, and lacking in Judges, prosecutors and public defenders.
While the Constitution guarantees the "right to a speedy trial", each state has their own controlling laws.
Under Florida's rules of criminal procedure, every person charged with a felony must be brought to trial within 175 days.
That said, defense attorneys (who are backlogged) want, request, and are granted time to prepare motions, schedule motions, prepare a defense, etc.
I'd suggest posting this question without the "August 1st" date ... and with a slightly higher likelihood of "Yes" -- say 85%.
Of course, that's only my view -- it's up to the Category Editor to decide.
newswrangler: Flagged by super user:
In my view, the chance of God being tried and convicted by August 1, 2008 are less than 1%.
Accordingly, a starting likelihood of 25% "No" is widely off. (Were this question to stand, I would wager all my H$ on "no" ;-)
All States courts are backlogged, underfunded, and lacking in Judges, prosecutors and public defenders.
While the Constitution guarantees the "right to a speedy trial", each state has their own controlling laws.
Under Florida's rules of criminal procedure, every person charged with a felony must be brought to trial within 175 days.
That said, defense attorneys (who are backlogged) want, request, and are granted time to prepare motions, schedule motions, prepare a defense, etc.
I'd suggest posting this question without the "August 1st" date ... and with a slightly higher likelihood of "Yes" -- say 85%.
Of course, that's only my view -- it's up to the Category Editor to decide.
Voided Mon 23rd Jun 7:38pm PDT by 
ryanj: Newswrangler makes a good point. Although it's likely he'll be convicted in the time frame given it is unlikely, or at least not worthy of 80% odds. Very nice market though so I'd just suggest a market with better odds and perhaps a further away suspend date.
ryanj: Newswrangler makes a good point. Although it's likely he'll be convicted in the time frame given it is unlikely, or at least not worthy of 80% odds. Very nice market though so I'd just suggest a market with better odds and perhaps a further away suspend date.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all
Predictions (4)
4 predictions
mrsprfctComments (2)
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score: 10
National Post 9 weeks ago
sandwiches, walnut salads, and apples without the suggested caramel dip. (He shied away from the French fries.) ...would God allegedly sell cocaine - and near a church, no less! Meet God Lucky Howard, a 39-year-old self-described mortgage broker now
score: 10
St. Petersburg Times 9 weeks ago
posts but reserves the right to delete comments that violate our policy. June 23, 2008 deals drugs? Police arrested a man named God for allegedly dealing cocaine near a church, the Herald reports. God Lucky Howard is accused of selling the drugs to
score: 10
Macro World Investor 9 weeks ago
babies together, seeking to dispel an explosive theory put forth by the high school principal. 'Any planned blood-oath bond to become pregnant, there is absolutely no evidence of,' Mayor Carolyn Kirk said Monday after a closed-door meeting with city,
score: 10
Macro World Investor 9 weeks ago
God accused of selling cocaine near Tampa church TAMPA, Fla. (AP), Police say a man named God was arrested near a Tampa church for selling cocaine. Authorities began investigating God Lucky
score: 10
Associated Press 9 weeks ago
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) -- Police say a man named God was arrested near a Tampa church for selling cocaine. Authorities began investigating God Lucky Howard in April, and he was arrested
I could probably browse the most popular questions and debate about the starting odds of half of them.
There are a lot of different personalities and opinions on hubdub (I'd even anticipate that 15 of 20 people would create different starting odds for this question). While I've made an effort to create very fair, clear, and fun questions, it's frustrating to have to debate minor details of questions, while watching hundreds of other much more unrealistic questions being ignored.
Please void this question.
I guess it wasn't THAT likely.
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