How many US states will be "Red" after the 2008 Presidential election?

Three interesting sites for Red/Blue State Analysis from the LAST Presidential Election in 2004:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/
http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/
http://all-too-common-dissent.blogspot.com/2007/07/red-america.html

Suspension reconsideration request...

Well, then I guess you're not going to like the next market I created either about landlocked Red States. I tried to carefully craft my market to be something a bit different, albeit similiar to other existing markets. I'm surprised that this is bounced (suspended) so quickly after all the brouhaha the past two election cycles about the difference between the popular vote and the electoral college. Although admittedly rare (perhaps less rare than we'd prefer given recent elections)... it is not AUTOMATIC that the number of states that Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee will win the popular vote will be an EXACT duplicate to the outcome of this market. It is a whiff presumptuous, in June, to say that these two markets are duplicates. I specifically and deliberately phrased this market to reflect not actual candidates, but instead the parties.

Anyone else see it this way, or is it just me?

Nope, like your other market just fine, because its asking about a particular subset of states.

The 2000 election compared the national popular vote to the electoral college vote -- I agree that can be quite different.

Your question compares STATEWIDE popular votes to their electoral college vote. However, since 48 of the 50 (Maine and Nebraska are the only two exceptions) states select their electors based on a winner take all from the popular vote, there is not a significant difference for states in the general election between popular vote and electoral vote.

This is still certainly up to the admin to decide. One of our goals as superusers is to suspend markets we think are questionable early so that the admin can make the best decision without agonizing over disenfranchinsing many users with thousands of h$ tied up in the market.

@ jenniandboys

As usual your explanation is both succinct and well stated; I appreciate the quick response and will not further contest whatever verdict is administered. Indeed the Presidential races these past few cycles have been nothing if not interesting, I'd have not predicted such closely contested outcomes when I was a child first learning about the Electoral College. It’s nice to have these 'big ticket' things to wager on this year. Thank you again J.

@valor...theres 2 differnt sets of rules (at least) one for HD'S and another for admin's and super useres. ask mrpeferfkt. i clearly showed it once, and could show it more often. as stated earliar on the shout out i left on you profile...just ain't worth gettin fired up over a site with H$. SUPER USERS DO AS THEY PLEASE WITH NO PENALTY. it just they things are.

*way

Diesel.
Why do you continue to use this site if you hate it so much?
And why don't I know what you're talking about?

@dieseldog
I play by the same rules as you do. My only additional "power" on this website is to suspend a question when I flag it or when I request settlement. My other additional powers (flying, getting invisible, etc...) don't give me any advantage over you/any other player.

Hi,

Market unsuspended after deliberations.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

@mork..never said i hated the site. just said the rules are enforced equally. as to why you don't know about i'm talking about, id say you haven't saw the example i posted. should i check with you before i post a comment?

@kruijs..my bad on saying superusers..that would include all. i should have said some superusers.

@dieseldog:
BTW I don't have a clue about what you were talking either. Where did you post that example of which you're talking? Ah, wait, "i left on you profile", V&H's one. Hm, the only thing I find there is "they suspend when its in their or their friends interest" an accusation. No example. Could you provide the example you're talking about? Which market? Which Super User suspension do you mean?

@kruijs...why do you want me to do your job? if i show you proof what will that accomplish? the superusers and admin i'm referring to are fully aware of the info i posted in the comment section of the question created by a superuser. spend more time being a superuser (doing what your pose to) and less time asking me to do it for you. have a nice day.

@dieseldog - I also can't seem to locate the "instance" you are referring to repeatedly. Granted I don't waste alot of time looking over your comments, but if there is an issue I would hope that you would post it to Getsatisfaction so it could be discussed and used as a learning tool.
I can only speak for myself when I say that as a superuser I feel a sense of pride in trying to raise the standards of Hubdub. I want it to be a place where well defined questions about relevant news can be debated, wagered on, and explored. I have learned a great deal about things outside my circle of interest since joining Hubdub. In a given day I have researched cricket matches, voting records of senators, followed the events of suicide bombers in Iraq, looked up weather reports for Mars, and tried my best to make sure everyone has a fair experience on this site.

I feel funny that my little market here has become a forum for such impassioned dialogue. Glad to know I'm amongst folks that have vigorous opinions... iron sharpens iron as the saying goes!

@destry...i didn't wanna post what i said cause i don't wanna cause no hard feelings. i stated my case on moved on. now since you want it i'll provide it..seeing it invovles you. theres more than this, but i don't keep track or speak up every time. its a free site with free money so i ain't gonna sweat it to much. theres times when i see questions get voided or flagged and i can't believe how unfair it is. i'm in the class of lucidstates..TO MUCH NIK-PIKING. go to the link below and read the comments. i'm not gonna sit here and argue with people over this. when i see something i view as unfair i'll speak my mind and move on. have a nice day.
http://www.hubdub.com/m9035/Will_Donald_Trump_get_the_approval_to_build_his_golf_course_in_Scotland

@dieseldog - First thank you for finally providing the link. Second the question I asked about had a very specific news article attached to it, and the other market you quoted dealt with a different set of circumstances. One of the litmus tests for determining if a market is a duplicate is will a single outcome determine more than one question, if so are those two markets basically asking the same thing. In the example you point out, the farmer who was holding out on selling was completely unrelated to the appeal process that my question dealt with. So I see absolutely no way these two questions could be duplicates. They both deal with a golf course being built but that is where the similarities end. This question was looked at by an "admin" and not superusers.
The college world series question you referenced were also done by a category editor and not a super user. So I am not seeing where you are finding fault with super users over those markets you referenced.
No one is claiming to be perfect. I am sure I have and will continue to make mistakes, I just hope at the end of the day, I did more good than bad.

@dieseldog

"(...) The responsbilities of a Super User. Yes, with the rights come responsibilities. And yes, we thought very carefully before picking the current Super Users, and yes we did choose them, amongst other reasons, because we felt that they would give a balanced view and judgement. We did not, however, ask them to be "representatives" of Hubdub, nor have they signed any contract with us. They are simply enthusiastic users with the ability to Suspend questions. The "responsibility" is that they will help in policing the game. So far they have all been doing an outstanding job. We do not expect Super Users to react in the same manner as Admins - they are not being paid and are doing it for the love of the game. (...)"

http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/a_hubdub_representative_super_user_mork_not_being_a_good_role_model_for_hubdub#top_reply_509875