Why is Hubdub accurate?

Hubdub combines thousands of your predictions into forecasts about how news stories will turn out.

If something is forecast at 10%, it will happen 10% of the time
If something is forecast at 20%, it will happen 20% of the time
...
If something is forecast at 80%, it will happen 80% of the time

You get the idea. This doesn't mean that high percentage events will definitely happen, and low percentage events won't, just that it's not very likely.

Are these forecasts accurate?

Yes. Our underlying mechanism for generating forecasts is a prediction market. These have been proven to be accurate, far more so than polls.

• People can express their certainty by the amount of cash they wager
• People act to keep the forecasts in line with their opinions. The combination of many participants gives a better overall forecast than each individually (The Wisdom of the Crowds)
• The prediction market can react rapidly to emerging news so the forecast is always up to date

That's amazing! I want to know more

You can read more about prediction markets:

• Wikipedia
• Market Scoring Rule by Professor Robin Hanson