Question Guidelines & Rules

A good Hubdub question is:

• Well structured: the question should ask what will happen in a particular event or by a particular date. A poorly structured question might ask should something happen which cannot be objectively settled. Additionally a poorly structured question might fail to give a deadline (e.g. "Will the Chinese land on the moon?" could never be settled in the negative).
• Clearly defined: it should be clear to other users how the question will be settled, including the source of the settlement information. For example, if the question was "Will HD-DVDs outsell Blu-Ray DVDs in 2008?", the source for the settlement information must be clearly stated.
• About something lots of people care about: The sex of your unborn child may be fascinating to you but probably not that exciting to other users. (However, if you are Brad Pitt then I take that back, post away!)
• Not a duplicate: We don't like duplicates as it confuses users and splits activity, reducing the overall accuracy of both predictions. Before asking a question always check that it hasn't been asked already.
• Has reasonable starting likelihoods: when you create a question you choose the starting likelihoods of the outcomes too. It's hard to decide these exactly, but likelihoods that are clearly out (e.g. Will Elvis return in 2008? 50%) can cause a question to be voided.

1.2 Types of questions

There are 2 basic types of question in Hubdub:

• Questions with a Yes or No answer: Will Kiera Knightley win an Oscar this year?
• Questions with more than one possible answer but only one winning answer: Who will win the Best Actress Oscar at this year's Academy Awards?

1.3 Tips

To make sure that your question is a "good question", here are some tips:

2. Rules

At Hubdub we don't really like rules, but we thought we needed a few to keep things fair and fun. Like the rules of any game, they will evolve. We're relying on you, our users, to help fill the gaps so that over time there will be fewer disputes. If you believe these rules should be amended please make your proposal here. You should title your post 'Proposed rule change:'

2.1 The top 8

For the busy among you (or those with A.D.D.) read these if you read nothing else:

1. 1. The onus is on the question creator to produce clear well-structured non-duplicate questions with accurate likelihood estimates
2. 2. Predictions made on questions after the settlement information becomes public knowledge will be voided
3. 3. Hubdub admin will endeavour to settle questions as soon as possible after the information is public on a "best effort" basis
4. 4. Where the meaning of a question is in dispute, the most common sense meaning will be taken, as judged by Hubdub admin
5. 5. If you dispute the settlement of a question please contact us
6. 6. Only questions that can be settled against public news sources are allowed (apart from Hubdub questions)
7. 7. All user-created sports questions should suspend prior to start of the event
8. 8. No user-created in-running questions are allowed apart from on the DJIA and the NASDAQ

2.2 General Rules - covering all categories

2.2.1 Subject to change

• Hubdub management will endeavour to solicit and incorporate community feedback into rules changes
• These rules will change over time. In the event of a rule change the changes will be posted on the Hubdub notice board
• Any rule change may be applied retroactively on a case-by-case basis

2.2.2 Site outages

• The website may, at any time, be temporarily unavailable for unscheduled technical reasons.
• In these circumstances, Hubdub will make best efforts to re-instate the site, however any losses suffered by users will not be re-credited.

2.2.3 Time, Time Zones and Geography

• As far as possible, times on the website are shown in your timezone for your convenience. The 'core' timezone for the website however is PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT, daylight savings are not observed)
• A week will begin at 00.00 PST Sunday and close at 23.59 PST on Saturday
• If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. "Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5th?" would be resolved using local time (GMT/BST). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs.
• Unless otherwise specified, the relevant time period to which the question refers begins from the date of creation of the question
• Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST.
• If the user does not define the date format and it is ambiguous then it will be assumed to be US format MM/DD/YY
• If the question creator does not specify the year then it will be assumed that they intended the next instance of that date (not later years)
• If the question creator does not specify the jurisdiction within an event does or does not take place, and it is ambiguous, then it will be assumed to refer to the US
• If a question refers to an event occurring in a country, then it will be considered to have occurred if it occurs on land, within its territorial waters or airspace
• Besides markets regarding seismic events, the UN World Macro Regions and Components will be used as a classification system for continents and world regions.

2.2.4 Suspension

• While it will endeavour not to, Hubdub may to suspend a question for any period at any time and for any duration.
• Under normal circumstances, i.e. where there is no dispute over an outcome, a question will only be suspended when it is about to be settled or when a sports event has started
• While a question is suspended, it will not be possible to place any new predictions or to cash-in any existing predictions on that question.
• A question will be suspended automatically when the Suspend date and time (as entered by the question creator) are reached.
• Best practise is for question creators to set the suspend date when the question will definitely be known (non-sports) or at the start of the sports event (sports).
• Hubdub administrators may amend the Suspend date and/or time if either has been entered incorrectly by the question creator or if circumstances change.
• Suspend dates should not be set for any date greater than 7 days in advance of the expected settlement date.
• In the event where no Suspend date or time has been entered, Hubdub administrators may enter them should they be deemed necessary.
• The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is "Who will Edwards endorse?" and the suspend date is February 5th then the question should not be interpreted as "Who will Edwards endorse by February 5th?"

2.2.5 Types of question

• All questions should be in English
• Questions should be about news stories that the creator expects a significant number of other users are interested in
• All non-Hubdub questions should be settled from public news sources. Therefore private questions which are only of interest to a small group of people, e.g. date of childbirth for a non-public figure, are not allowed
• All questions should provide context in which they are created (e.g. through linking to a relevant news story), particularly when it is un-obvious how the starting prices were derived. All websites linked to should be in English.
• If the question is potentially contentious (e.g. about loss of life) then it must be in the context of a mainstream news story
• Questions should have a clear resolution and not be open to gaming. Questions that have failed this criteria include number of Google search results for a certain term (varies by user), eBay listings and home page tickers and whether a particular picture will appear on a news site's home page.
• All outcomes of questions should have an initial likelihood between 1% and 99%
• Questions which refer to the number of times a certain person says a certain phrase or word in a specific speech or debate are not allowed unless there is a recognised news organization that has stated it will or a Hubdub category editor has agreed to maintain a count
• All questions which refer to Hubdub should be categorised in the Hubdub category only
• Questions concerning whether specific articles or photos will appear on the home page of a particular website on a particular day are not allowed.

2.2.6 Settlement

• While Hubdub will make every effort to settle a question within a reasonable time frame after the question has been suspended, in some circumstances there may a delay between suspension and settlement.
• If a question is determined after 2pm PST (10pm GMT), it may not be settled until the following day (our editors are all based in the UK and need to sleep!)
• When a question is determined at a weekend, it may not be settled until the following Monday (although in most cases it will be settled within 12 hours)
• Unless the settlement rules clearly state otherwise, Hubdub may settle questions before the suspend date if the outcome is clear and not subject to change.
• Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome.
• If there is a consensus among main stream news sources that something will happen then we will generally settle it as having occurred.
• In questions on news where initial reports are often inaccurate, questions will generally be suspended on initial reports however they will not be settled until there is a stronger consensus among news sources. If the consensus results in the question remaining open then it will be unsuspended.

2.2.7 Disputes

• Where the meaning of a question is in dispute, the most common sense meaning will be taken, as judged by Hubdub admin
• In identifying the common sense meaning Hubdub admin may draw on the final resolution of previously disputed questions
• If there is a dispute over the settlement of a question, the dispute will may be posted on Hubdub's Get Satisfaction page for user feedback
• Based on the consensus reached by users, Hubdub will make a final decision on settlement
• Should there be no clear consensus on the outcome, Hubdub may void the question. If the question has already been settled, then voiding will result in the stakes on losing predictions being returned to users. However winning predictions will retain their winnings

2.2.8 Voiding Questions

• Hubdub may void the question if:
  • It's a duplicate
  • It's poorly worded, vague or ambiguous
  • It's impossible to settle objectively
  • The initial likelihood values are not accurate
  • It does not have a wide following
  • A change of circumstances has occurred (see section below)
• A question will be considered a duplicate if its true forecast probability is 95% or greater similar to an existing question (e.g. "Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 3rd?" would generally be considered a duplicate of "Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 2nd?")
• The onus is on the question creator to demonstrate that the percentage estimate is accurate through linking to relevant news articles or data sources. Not doing so could result in the question being voided
• When a question has been voided, the question creator will receive an automated email informing them that it has been voided. Hubdub Category Editors will endeavour to include a manual explanation if it is not clear
• Users who have made a prediction on a question which has been voided will be able to see the voided question with an explanation for the voiding in their My Hubdub page
• Hubdub will void all predictions made after the outcome of a question becomes public knowledge (sorry no prizes for predicting what is already known)
• Hubdub does not vet every question and comment posted on the site. If a user has a complaint or an issue with a particular question or comment, it should be flagged by the user.
• For conditional questions, e.g. If John Edwards drops out, who will he endorse, if the initial condition (e.g. "If John Edwards drops out") is not met, the question will be voided

2.2.9 Changes of Circumstances

• If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided and all stakes returned to users
• Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has been settled may result in us re-settling in favor of that outcome (with winnings on the previous winning outcome being retained)
• If an event is postponed, the suspend date will be moved out accordingly
• An outcome may be listed against a question and due to a change of circumstances, that outcome is no longer actually possible, e.g. a date which has already past. In this event, the outcome will still be offered as an option and any users selecting that outcome will lose their stake on settlement

2.2.10 Creating Questions

• Question creators may not make a prediction on their created question until 12 hours after question creation
• An outcome of "Around X%" will only be acceptable if the creator specifies what they mean by "around". In general it is better to specify a range, e.g. 0-5%
• The term "by" will be considered to be exclusive of the date referenced. E.g. "Will the satellite hit earth by March 25th?" will be settled as a "Yes" if it hits prior to March 25th, and 'No' if it hits on March 25th or later. Where possible, category editors should edit 'by' to 'before', to avoid ambiguity.
  In outcomes involving dates which are intended to be mutually exclusive, it is suggested that 'between' is inclusive of the dates given unless this leads to date overlap in the outcomes. Where possible, category editors should edit to 'on or between' or 'between, exclusive of' to avoid ambiguity.
• The terms "at" or "on" in reference to dates will be considered to only include the point in time referred to
• Hubdub may unilaterally amend created questions, e.g. to correct typos, settlement information and outcome ranges however we will not amend the meaning of a question that has already had predictions placed on it
• From time to time, Hubdub may also unilaterally amend obvious typos that would change the meaning of the question had they been interpreted literally. E.g. "Will Yahoo be bought in 1008?" would be amended to the creator's intended question "Will Yahoo be bought in 2008?"
• Any offensive questions or comments will be voided or deleted. Users posting such comments/questions will be given a warning and their usage of the site will be monitored. Should they continue to post offensive or unacceptable comments/ questions, they will be banned from using the site

2.2.11 Gaming

• Gaming of the system is explicitly not allowed. Gaming includes:
  • Creation of multiple accounts
  • Creation of questions with deliberately inaccurate price estimates
  • Use of multiple accounts to transfer Hubdub dollars from one to the other
• However we cannot provide an exhaustive list of what is considered gaming. As a guide, if you believe the wider Hubdub community would consider an activity as gaming then it probably is.
• In the event that user is considered to be gaming he/she then the procedure is as follows:
  • 1st offence: Email warning
  • 2nd offence: Fined 50% of net worth and publicly named for 2 weeks
  • 3rd offence: Account deactivated
• If the first offence is considered particularly blatant then we may move to the fine or deactivation.

2.3 Category Specific Rules

2.3.1 Politics Category

• Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question.
• In the event that a state primary/caucus/convention question results in a tie between candidates then the question will be settled as the winner of the popular vote.
• If the settlement source is not specified in settlement details and there is disagreement between news sources as to outcome of a question then the result will be settled against the following sources in order: CNN, MSNBC, FOX, Reuters and then the BBC (i.e. We will consult CNN first. If it does not report on the event then we will consult MSNBC etc)
• Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause)

2.3.2 Sports Category

• Best practise is for sports match questions to be phrased "Team A v Team B: Who will win?" where Team A is the home team. If a draw occurs more often than 1 in every 100 games of this type of sport then the draw should be offered as an outcome.
• If the question concerns whether a certain player will play in a particular game, the question can be settled when the team/squad is announced
• In general sports questions will be suspended prior to the start of the game in question. Any predictions made on a question accidentally left open during a game will be voided on settlement
• Questions on sports events should not include postponement as an outcome. In the event of postponement the question will stand but the suspend time will be extended
• Hubdub may select which questions will be suitable for in-running during a sporting event and will amend the suspend time appropriately. In this event, users will be notified which questions are in-running via the question title (which will be marked IN-RUNNING) and the Get Satisfaction notice board.

2.3.3 Entertainment Category

2.3.3.1 US Movie Box Office

• The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielsen EDI for that period.
• General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
• For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm PST on the Friday. Any predictions made after that point will be voided.
• "Opening weekend" will run from Friday to Sunday
• If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.
• For questions regarding box office takings, all questions relate to North American (US and Canada) domestic takings, unless otherwise specified. Earnings are in $US unless otherwise specified.

2.3.3.2 TV Shows

• Questions may be asked about television programs where results are announced live, for example, American Idol. Questions may also be asked on television programs which are pre-recorded, but for which the outcome is not known (for example, if two different outcomes have been recorded). However, questions related to pre-recorded shows were the result is known are banned.
• Settlement will be based on the final outcome of the Show as televised either as live or recorded on the official associated television network.
• Settlement will be based on the final outcome of the Show as televised (either as live or recorded) on the official associated television network.
• The means by which a winner is determined will vary between shows so Hubdub will settle questions based on the official rules of the specific show
• If necessary, Hubdub may determine a winner for expiration purposes using the Dispute process (see above)
• Should the rules or the nature or timing of the contest change significantly, Hubdub may immediately amend these rules accordingly.
• Events were a tie is a possibility should have that outcome listed on question creation
• In the event of two or more individuals/teams being awarded the title or are unexpectedly declared joint winners of the show, if there is no outcome for this listed in the question, then the question will be settled as a win for all winning outcomes
• If a contestant is disqualified for any reason before the outcome is settled, then predictions on them will be settled as losing predictions
• Official changes to the outcome made before the question is settled will stand.
• If a winner is disqualified after the question has been settled, then the question may be re-settled as the new winning outcome.

2.3.3.3 Awards

• The question will be settled based on the winner of the award as officially declared by the specific Award Board in question.
• For disqualification, see TV Shows above.

2.3.4 Business Category

• For questions with regards takeovers an "offer" is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
• Unless otherwise specified, questions asking whether company X will be acquired (or merge with company Y) by date Z will be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement.
• Questions can be made about the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite Index. Questions on any other indices are not currently permitted. Questions should not be made about the performance of individual stocks.

2.3.5 Hubdub Category

• Self-referential questions which can be gamed easily like "Will this question get on the homepage?" or "Will this question get H$100,000 in predictions?" are not allowed and will be voided.
• Self-referential questions that cannot be settled to all outcomes (e.g. "Will this question be voided?") are also not allowed and will be voided.
• Hubdub staff will not participate on any questions on which they have inside knowledge through their employment with Hubdub.
• Questions on how many users Hubdub will have are temporarily not permitted.

2.3.6 General Category

2.3.6.1 Weather

• All weather questions should state the units of measurement (Celsius, Inches, Feet etc).
• All temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details will be taken to be the common scale for the region or country in which the weather occurred. For the avoidance of doubt that means Celsius in Europe (including the UK) and Fahrenheit in the US. If the region or country has no commonly agreed scale then Fahrenheit will be used.
• Temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details, do not include wind chill factor
• If a question concerns the amount of snowfall or rainfall falling in a particular day, it must be for a full day (00.00 midnight to 23.59). If it concerns a period longer than a day (e.g. week), it must be to the nearest day.
• Questions regarding the weather for a specific area clearly defined and listed in NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/wx.html) or other reputable online weather sources that issue frequently updated weather reports (i.e. http://www.weather.com). In countries outside the USA, an equivalent organization or online news source will determine settlement
• Should the question creator not specify the settlement source, then government meteorological websites will be considered to be the definitive news source. For example, http://www.weather.gov/ and http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ will be used as the definitive weather sources for the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. A directory of similar national meteorological websites can be found through the World Meteorological Organization http://www.wmo.ch/pages/index_en.html
• Questions should be specific and clearly worded. For example, "Will the temperature in Washington, DC, exceed 50 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, (Month), (Day), (Year)?"
• Snowfall will be measured in inches unless otherwise stated in the question details
• Snowfall does not include snow drifts
• Best practise on creating weather questions is to link directly to the settlement source in the settlement details

2.3.7 World

• Unless otherwise specified in the settlement details the preferred settlement source for World questions will be Reuters

2.3.8 Science Category

2.3.8.1

• All earthquakes in America, and earthquakes around the world greater than 4 on the Richter scale, will be settled using http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/ unless otherwise specified. Earthquakes around the world less than 4 will be settled using http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=current&sub=list
• All earthquake questions will be settled based on preliminary data released by the source, regardless of whether the figures are later revised. The date and time at which settlement sources are checked will be posted on settlement details.
• For questions which state a particular country/continental location, the earthquake must occur on land or within 12 nautical miles of the stated location.
• We have created continental classifications according to Flinn-Engdahl sesimic regions as listed at http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/fer.html. Questions which state a particular continent will be settled based on the countries listed in the following seismic regions:
  • Africa: 37
  • Antarctica: 50
  • Asia: 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 41, 47, 48
  • Australia: 38
  • Europe: 30, 31, 36, 49
  • North America: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 34
  • South America: 8, 9, 35

Last updated: June 12th, 2008