News

1. Where does this news come from?

News is sourced from over 10,000 US and international publications and blogs that we track regularly through our partner Inform.

2. How is the news ordered?

Currently news is ordered taking into account three factors, user voting, key word matching and time/date of the article publication. We are currently working on a number of refinements to further improve the relevancy and newsworthiness of associated news articles.

3. How can I follow a news story?

Simply search for the topic in the search box and if there is already a question on it, click on the question and see all the news related to it and how the likely outcome has changed over time. If your search returns no results, then create a question yourself. You can track your predictions and the questions you’ve created in My Hubdub.

4. How often is the news updated?

Hourly.

5. Can I add a publication to the list of sources?

If you find one you think we should include, then contact us.

6. How does voting impact on a news article?

Users’ votes help to rank the news articles in order of relevancy and newsworthiness.

7. Can I customise what news articles I see?

Not yet! But we’re working on it.

8. Is it possible to submit news articles myself?

No. But you can link to the news article in the comments section. If it is your own blog article, you can also cross post in the comments section with a trackback to your blog.

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Predictions

1. What does the percentage value, say 22%, attached to each outcome actually mean?

This means that users collectively forecast that this outcome has a 22% chance of happening.

2. If a prediction has a yes value of 43%, does that mean that 43% of people have voted yes?

No, not really. The forecast is dependent on both the number of people who have selected this outcome and the amount they have risked on it. Very roughly, 43% means that 43% of the money risked by users is riding on that outcome.

3. How is a question settled?

In order to ensure speed and accuracy, all questions are settled by Hubdub administrators.

Settlement occurs whenever it becomes public knowledge that the question can be conclusively answered. This may be because an event has occurred or because an event has failed to occur and the stated question period has run out.

If there is no clarity as to which outcome occurred then the question will be voided and stakes returned to users

5. What if I think a question has been settled incorrectly?

Then you should contact us immediately and we’ll look into it.

6. What is a prediction market and how does it work?

A prediction market is market like any other but here people are trading predictions of future events. One of the nice side benefits of prediction markets is the current ‘price’ for an outcome tends to be a very good forecast of the likelihood of that event occurring. A good introduction to prediction markets is provided by Wikipedia. Hubdub uses a modified version of the Market Scoring Rule invented by Professor Robin Hanson at George Mason University.

7. Can I link to my question/prediction from my blog?

Yes, please do. We’re also working on a range of plug-ins which will make it even easier to do that.

8. One of my predictions has disappeared - where has it gone?

It has most certainly been voided. To see your voided predictions, go to My Hubdub/My Predictions/Void. If you click through to the question, there will be a reason stated why it was voided. If your prediction has been voided but the question appears as settled then the reason your prediction was voided is because it was placed after the event's outcome became public information but before the question was settled (sorry, no prizes for predicting things that are already known!).

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Making a prediction

1. What are Hubdub dollars (H$s)?

Hubdub dollars (H$s) are the units of currency used on Hubdub. New users are allocated H$1,000 when they join and all users receive H$20 each day they log into the site.

2. What is “Your Price” and why is it different depending on how much money I stake?

‘Your Price’ is the level at which you make your prediction.

For example, if an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction will be that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.

Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.

3. How do you calculate how much I will win?

If you predict something will happen, then we take Your Price from 100% and divide the result by Your Price to get the winnings multiple. We then multiply the winnings multiple by the amount you risked to get your winnings.

For example, if you predicted something to happen, risking H$100 at 20%, then if it does happen, your winnings multiple would be 80% / 20% = 4.0 and therefore your winnings would be H$400. You would also get your stake of H$100 returned.

4. When I’ve made a prediction, where does the money I’ve risked go?

It gets held in a separate escrow account. This is to cover any losses that might occur if your prediction turns out to be incorrect. While the question is still open you can’t use this money to make further predictions, however if your prediction turns out to be right then this money is returned to you.

5. What happens if I run out of Hubdub Dollars?

Every day you log on you will be allocated with H$20. Beyond that you have to speculate to accumulate.

6. How can I see all the predictions I have made?

All the predictions you have made are recorded in the My Predictions section of My Hubdub.

7. I made a prediction but now want to cancel it – how do I do that?

In My Hubdub, simply find the prediction you want to cancel and select ‘Cash out'.

Note that the price you will receive for your prediction is likely to be different from the price you originally made the prediction at. This means you may receive less than you originally staked.

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Commenting

1. What are the guidelines on commenting?

In general use your common sense. Specifically you should not (1) abuse, harass, threaten, impersonate or intimidate other users, (2) post any content that is infringing, defamatory, libelous, obscene, pornographic, abusive, offensive or otherwise violates any law, or (3) use the site for any illegal or unauthorized purpose.

2. Can I report offensive comments?

Yes - if you feel that a comment is offensive then contact us.

3. Can I remove a comment I have made? ?

Unfortunately not, therefore you should make sure you think before you comment.

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Leaderboard

1. What are the benefits of being at the top of the leaderboard?

First, there’s the shear kudos of being top. Also, predictors at the top of the leaderboard are considered experts, because of their track record in successfully predicting future events. Because of that other users tend to seek them out and link through to their blogs.

2. How are the leaderboard positions calculated?

Leaderboard rankings are calculated over a quarterly time period. The leaderboard calculation considers predictions that were cashed in and settled in the time period and open predictions.

3. I’ve found a really neat way to game the system, what should I do?

To help us improve everyone’s experience, we suggest you contact us with details of the exploit. If it is a new one, we might even credit you with a bounty.

If you are tempted to use the exploit be warned, we are constantly on the look out for people trying to game the leaderboard. If you are caught you may be penalised and potentially banned.

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Creating a question

1. Can I create a new question?

Absolutely! Creating a new question is very straightforward. Simply select ‘Create a new question’ and then follow the instructions. Before creating a new question please run a search to see if the question already exists.

2. What is a good question?

A good question is one that is a well structured, clearly defined, has a wide following and is not a duplicate of an existing open question. See our Question Guidelines & Rules for more info.

3. Is there any restriction on the type of question allowed?

Questions can be pretty much about anything you like – as long as it is possible to settle objectively. We do ask that it is not infringing, defamatory, libelous, obscene, pornographic, abusive, offensive or otherwise violates any law. See our Question Guidelines & Rules for more info.

4. What does the suspend date and time mean?

This is the date and time that question should be suspended. After this point, users cannot make predictions on your question. For some questions this is the moment the result becomes 100% certain (e.g. the moment only one of the outcomes becomes possible) and for others it is the start of an event that will determine the outcome (e.g. the start of a football game for a question about the game result). The suspend date/time should not be used as a guide to interpret the question. If the suspend date/time is wrong then admin may amend it.

5. Nobody is making predictions on my question - what should I do?

Firstly, check that it’s a “good” question (see Question Guidelines & Rules). If you realised that you need to change the question, you can contact us with the details and we’ll edit it for you.

If the question is “good”, then you can either:
a) email your friends the details of the question
b) put a link to it and discuss it in your blog

6. How do you settle disputes?

If you believe that a question has been settled incorrectly then please contact us with the details. We’ll investigate further and if necessary, canvas a selection of our user base to identify what is generally considered to be the correct answer. In the event that a decision is over-turned then all predictions on the new winning outcome will be paid out as winners. Pay-outs on the earlier winning outcome won’t be clawed back (we’re nice people!)

7. What happens if circumstances arise which cause a question to become redundant?

If the circumstances change such that an event doesn’t take place (and therefore there can be no winning outcome) then the question will be voided and any stakes will be returned to users. Similarly, if after a reasonable amount of research it’s impossible to settle a question then it will be voided.

However, if details of the event are changed then generally the question will remain open and be settled as normal. For example, if Time magazine changed their selection criteria for person of the year, the question as to ‘Who will be the Time Person of the Year?’ would remain unchanged.

Similarly if an outcome falls out of running for a question then it will be settled as a LOSE rather than as a VOID. E.g. if a candidate for the Time Person of the Year dies prior to publication and is therefore not selected then they will be considered to be a losing outcome.

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My Profile, Account Details and Access

1. How do I change my password and/or email details?

Click on My Account Details in My Hubdub.

2. How can I edit my profile?

Click on Profile Settings in My Hubdub. Currently, you can only add your blog details here, but we’re working on other stuff!

3. How can I tell how many H$ I have?

When you have logged in it will appear in the top left hand side of the screen.

4. Can I have more than one user account?

No. Like in a democracy with one person one vote, on Hubdub it is one person one user account. Creating additional user accounts is unfair to the rest of the community and opens opportunities to gaming the site. Users suspected of running multiple accounts may be penalised or banned.

5. Can I access Hubdub on my mobile?

Hubdub can be accessed from mobile devices but it is not currently optimised for mobile browsers. This is one we are still working on.

6. Can you tell me when my predictions move?

We are currently working on a range of widgets which will keep you up to date with your predictions and news. We will soon open up an API which will allow you to write your own extensions.

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Friends

1. How do I add existing Hubdub users as friends?

Friends are people you want to have a connection of friendship with on Hubdub. Once you're friends with a user, they will show up on the 'My Friends' tab in My Hubdub and you will also have a Leaderboard based on your friends (which is the default leaderboard). You can request a user's friendship by clicking the 'add as friend' button on their profile page. They will receive a message that you've requested their friendship. They have to accept this to make the friendship 'mutual' and then you will see them show up on the 'My Friends' tab in ‘My Hubdub’ and also on the ‘My Friends Leaderboard’.

2. How do I add someone as a friend if I can't find them on Hubdub already?

To invite friends simply go to My Friends in the ‘My Hubdub’ tab and from there you can enter their email address and send them an invite.

3. How do I stop users sending me friend invites?

When you block a user it means that you will not receive any further friend requests from them and they won’t appear on your Friends leaderboard. You can block users by clicking 'Block User' on their profile, in the 'My Friends' in 'My Hubdub' or when you receive a friend request from them. You can also manage blocked users in the ‘My Friends’ tab in ‘My Hubdub’.

4. Can I keep track of how my friends are performing?

If you've added them as a friend and they have accepted they will show up in your 'My Friends Leaderboard'. Alternatively you can click on their user name to see their profile.

5. How can I see which questions my friends are interested in?

Click on your friend’s username and then click on their Created Questions or Open Predictions.

6. Can I give Hubdub dollars to my friends?

No, you cannot. However you can give your friends tips on what you think are good predictions. If you are good at that you might find yourself getting a lot more friends!

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