Frequently Asked Questions

How Does the Market Work?

1. What is a prediction market and how does it work?

A prediction market is market where people trade predictions on future events. Conveniently, this means that the current 'price' for an outcome tends to be a very good forecast of the likelihood of that event occurring. A good introduction to prediction markets is provided by Wikipedia. Hubdub uses a modified version of the Market Scoring Rule invented by Professor Robin Hanson at George Mason University.

2. What does the percentage value, say 22%, attached to each outcome actually mean?

This means that users collectively forecast that this outcome has a 22% chance of happening.

3. If a prediction has a yes value of 43%, does that mean that 43% of people have voted yes?

No, not really. The forecast is dependent on both the number of people who have selected this outcome and the amount they have risked on it. Very roughly, 43% means that 43% of the money risked by users is riding on that outcome.

4. What is 'Your Price' and why is it different depending on how much money I stake? 'Your Price' is the level at which you make your prediction.

If an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction will be that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.

Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome, and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.

5. How do you calculate how much I will win?

If you predict something will happen, then we take Your Price from 100% and divide the result by Your Price to get the winnings multiple. We then multiply the winnings multiple by the amount you risked to get your winnings.

For example, if you predicted something to happen, risking H$100 at 20%, then if it does happen, your winnings multiple would be 80% / 20% = 4.0 and therefore your winnings would be H$400. You would also get your stake of H$100 returned.

If you place a prediction on a losing outcome, when the question is settled you will lose the amount of money you staked. If a question you predicted on is voided, you will get your stake returned. At times, it may be judged that your placed your prediction after an outcome was already known. In this case, your prediction will be cancelled, and your stake will be returned.

6. What are Hubdub dollars (H$s)?

Hubdub dollars (H$s) are the units of currency used on Hubdub. New users are allocated H$1,000 when they join and all users receive H$20 each day they log into the site.

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Questions

1.Can I create a new question?

Absolutely! Creating a new question is very straightforward. Click New question next to the My Hubdub tab and follow the instructions.

2. What is a good question?

A good question is one that is a well structured, clearly defined, has a wide following and is not a duplicate of an existing open question. See our Question Guidelines & Rules for more info.

3. Is there any restriction on the type of question allowed?

Questions can be about any news topic you choose ' as long as they can be settled objectively. We do ask that they are not infringing, defamatory, libelous, obscene, pornographic, abusive, offensive or otherwise in violatation of any law. See our Question Guidelines & Rules for more info. 4. What does the suspend date and time mean?

This is the date and time that question should be suspended. After this point, users cannot make predictions on your question and users who have placed predictions cannot cash out. For some questions this is the moment the result becomes 100% certain (e.g. the moment only one of the outcomes becomes possible) and for others it is the start of an event that will determine the outcome (e.g. the start of a football game for a question about the game result). The suspend date/time should not be used as a guide to interpreting the question. If the suspend date/time is wrong then admin may amend it.

5. How is a question settled?

In order to ensure speed and accuracy, all questions are settled by Hubdub administrators.

Settlement occurs whenever it becomes public knowledge that the question can be conclusively answered. This may be because an event has occurred or because an event has failed to occur and the stated question period has run out. If there is no clarity as to which outcome occurred then the question will be voided and stakes returned to users.

6. What if I think a question has been settled incorrectly?

Then you should contact us immediately and we'll look into it.

7. Who owns a question?

The question creator retains ownership of their question. However, at times questions must be amended to comply with our rules, terms and conditions. As such Hubdub reserves the right to liberally edit any aspect of the question, outcome, market background, picture or tags as required. If the change to the question is significant we will note the change on the question and endeavor to contact the creator.

8. Nobody is making predictions on my question - what should I do?

Firstly, check that it's a "good" question (see Question Guidelines & Rules). If you realised that you need to change the question, you can contact us with the details and we'll edit it for you. The best questions are short-term markets on news topics, with clear outcomes, interesting background information and a picture.

You can also publicise your question in these ways:
a) challenge your friends on Hubdub, using the blue ChallengeFriends button on the question page
b) post your question on Facebook, or other social media, using the buttons underneath the graph on the market page
c) use our widget using the Get widget link on the question page and post it on your blog

9. What are In Play questions?

In Play questions are questions that remain open for trading during the event - for example, an In Play sports match will not suspend at kickoff but will stay open until 5 minutes before the end of match. This is an exciting way to make predictions based on live information and to discuss events with fellow Hubdubbers. We currently run daily In Play markets for Business, and weekly in-play markets for Sports and Entertainment. The specific rules for suspension of In Play markets may vary according to each category. In Play markets are limited and decided at the discretion of the Category Editor.

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Commenting

1. What are the guidelines on commenting?

We welcome your opinions and discussions on the comments pages. However you should not (1) abuse, harass, threaten, impersonate or intimidate other users, (2) post any content that is infringing, defamatory, libelous, obscene, pornographic, abusive, offensive or otherwise violates any law, or (3) use the site for any illegal or unauthorized purpose.

2. Can I report offensive comments?

Yes - if you feel that a comment is offensive then contact us.

3. Can I remove a comment I have made?

Unfortunately not, therefore you should make sure you think before you comment.

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Leaderboards and Stars

1. How are the leaderboard positions calculated?

Leaderboard rankings are calculated hourly based on net worth and quarterly gain. Net worth is the sum of people's cash and predictions. Quarterly gain is the amount their cash has increased, plus the rise in people's prediction value over the quarter.

You can view the leaderboards by clicking on the 'Leaderboards' tab on the top of the page. You can check your position among your Hubdub friends or overall, by all time net worth or quarterly gain (and see each by category).

2. What are the benefits of being at the top of the leaderboard?

First, there 's the sheer kudos of being top. Also, predictors at the top of the leaderboard are considered experts, because of their track record in successfully predicting future events. This leads to other users seeking them out and linking through to their blogs.

3. I've found a really neat way to game the system, what should I do?

To help us improve everyone's experience, we suggest you contact us with details of the exploit. If it is a new one, we might even credit you with a bounty.

If you are tempted to use the exploit be warned, we are constantly on the look out for people trying to game the leaderboard. If you are caught you may be penalised and potentially banned.

4. What do the stars next to people's usernames mean?

Stars show a user's Hubdub level, and are a quick way to assess their success on Hubdub. Each level has a number from 1 to 20, a name and a star colour. They are based on a user's overall net worth, and the levels are as follows:

Star	Name	Net worth required
	Newbie	0
	Novice	1,025
	Apprentice	1,100
	Whiz-kid	1,200
	Predictor	1,400
	Player	2,000
	Pro	3,000
	Super-Pro	5,000
	Expert	7,500
	Genius	10,000
	Legend	15,000
	Guru	25,000
	Psychic	50,000
	Prophet	100,000
	Seer	250,000
	Oracle	500,000
	Superdubber	1,000,000
	Megadubber	2,000,000
	Uberdubber	3,000,000
	Hubdub God	5,000,000

If you want to know a player's exact net worth just hover your mouse pointer over their star for a second or so. Top

Disputes

1. How do you settle disputes?
If there is a dispute with the outcome or clarification of a question, the first point of contact should be the relevant category editor. You may contact them by:

a) flagging the question (using the 'flag for review' button). This will notify the relevant category editor by email, and is also visible to superusers but not the general community. Please note, a user can only flag a question once.
b) sending an email directly to the relevant category editor, by using the address format science@hubdub.com (replacing 'science' with the relevant category name).

If you are unsatisfied with the response, you should send an email outlining your concerns to the Community Manager, tisha[@]hubdub[dot]com or use the contact us form http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact

All major queries are referred to a panel of administrators, including co-founders, who have expert knowledge on the Hubdub rules, and they will make a final decision on the matter.

Alternatively, should you wish to discuss your concerns with the general Hubdub community, you should leave a comment on the relevant market page, or start a forum.

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My Profile, Account Details and Access

1. How do I change my password and/or email details?

Click My Account next to your username at the top right of the screen.

2. How can I edit my profile?

Visit your profile by clicking your username at the top of the screen, then click one of the edit links underneath your picture. Please feel free to add a photo, birthdate, city, gender, blog information and a little bit about yourself.

3. How can I tell how many H$ I have?

When you have logged in it will appear in the top right hand side of the screen.

4. How can I see all the predictions I have made?

All the predictions you have made can be seen by clicking All predictions from My Hubdub or clicking your "Predictions:" value under Net Worth on the top right of any screen.

5. I made a prediction but now want to cancel it - how do I do that?

In All predictions, search for the prediction you want to cancel and select Cash in.

Note that the price you will receive for your prediction is likely to be different from the price you originally made the prediction at. This means you may receive less than you originally staked.

6. When I've made a prediction, where does the money I've risked go?

It gets held in a separate escrow account. This is to cover any losses that might occur if your prediction turns out to be incorrect. While the question is still open you can't use this money to make further predictions, however if your prediction turns out to be right then this money is returned to you.

7. Why does my net worth fluctuate when I haven't made any new predictions?

Your net worth is a dynamic portfolio that reflects the live changes to markets in which you have made predictions. For example, you make a $100 prediction in market X, bringing your total networth to $1600. As other users trade in and out of market X, the percentage on your original $100 prediction has gone up, and it now has a value of $150. Your total net worth will now be $1650 without you having taken any action.

8. Why do I not receive my full winnings on a settlement?

When you view your 'If right, you get' column, the figure is inclusive of the original wager you put down. When you receive your settlement email, it will state the amount you have gained only, exclusive of the initial wager(s) you made.

9. Why is there a discrepany between my net worth, My Hubdub and leaderboard?

The leaderboards are recalculated every hour, and so may not immediately reflect the more dynamic changes in net worth.

10. Can you tell me when my predictions move?

A graph of your net worth over time is shown in your My Hubdub area. We are currently working on a range of widgets which will keep you up to date with your predictions and news. We will soon open up an API which will allow you to write your own extensions.

11. What happens if I run out of Hubdub Dollars?

Every day you log on you will be allocated with H$20. Beyond that you have to speculate to accumulate.

12. Can I link to my question/prediction from my blog?

Yes. There is a widget to the question which can be accessed by clicking the Get Widget link on the question page. Additionally, there is a widget for each prediction you place, which can be accessed by clicking the icon next to a prediction in All predictions.

13. Can I have more than one user account?

No. Like in a democracy where one person has one vote, on Hubdub one person has one user account. Creating additional user accounts is unfair to the rest of the community and opens opportunities to game the site. Users suspected of running multiple accounts may be penalised or banned.

14. Can I access Hubdub on my mobile?

Hubdub can be accessed from mobile devices but it is not currently optimised for mobile browsers. This is one we are still working on.

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Friends

1. How do I add existing Hubdub users as friends?

Friends are people you want to have a connection of friendship with on Hubdub. Once you're friends with a user, you can send and receive challenges with them and see them on your friends leaderboard based on your friends. You can request a user's friendship by clicking the 'add as friend' button on their profile page. They will receive a message that you've requested their friendship. They have to accept this to make the friendship 'mutual' and then you will see them show up on the Friends section of your My Hubdub.

2. How do I add someone as a friend if I can't find them on Hubdub already?

To invite friends go to the Friends section (in My Hubdub) and follow the instructions to invite friends by importing your address book. Alternatively you can use the top right hand search box to find someone - enter their email address, change the drop down box from Questions to Users and click Go.

3. How do I stop users sending me friend invites?

When you block a user it means that you will not receive any further friend requests from them and they won't appear on your Friends leaderboard. You can block users by clicking 'Block User' on their profile, in the Friends section (in My Hubdub) or when you receive a friend request from them. You can also manage blocked users in the Friends menu option in your My Hubdub.

4. Can I keep track of how my friends are performing?

If you've added them as a friend and they have accepted they will show up in your 'My Friends Leaderboard'. Alternatively you can click on their user name to see their profile.

5. How can I see which questions my friends are interested in?

Click on your friend's username and then click on their Created Questions or Open Predictions.

6. Can I give Hubdub dollars to my friends?

No, you cannot. However you can give your friends tips on what you think are good predictions. If you are good at that you might find yourself getting a lot more friends!

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Hubdub dollars

1. What are Hubdub dollars?

Hubdub dollars (H$) are used as virtual currency on the site. You start with H$1000 to make predictions on questions you find interesting.

2. What can I do with them?

You stake Hubdub dollars on your predicted answers to our news questions, win more if you're right and lose what you staked if you're wrong. The more Hubdub dollars you have, the better Hubdubber you are (shown by your star and level) and the higher on the leaderboards you climb. Remember, once you've staked dollars on a prediction its value can increase and decrease over time (a bit like a stock on the stock market) so it's up to you to carefully manage your portfolio of predictions to make sure that you get the best return. For the moment it's only virtual money so unfortunately you can't trade Hubdub dollars for real cash.

How to get help

1. I have a problem with a specific question

- Flag the question (using the 'flag for review' button). This will notify the relevant category editor, and is also visible to superusers but not the general community. Please note, a user can only flag a question once.
- Put a comment on the question page. This will be seen and more than likely answered by the Hubdub community or superuser.
- If you have a settlement dispute, you can also contact us.

2. I have a question about Hubdub:

- Make friends with a Superuser and send them a shout. They will accept your friendship request, and provide whatever guidance they can.
- Send an email or a shout to Tisha, the community manager.
- Use the contact us link at the bottom of the page -- a Hubdub employee should answer you within 24 hours.

3. I would like to have a general discussion with other users

- Put a comment on a question page.
- Shout with a Superuser.
- Create a topic in the appropriate forum in our Forums area.

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