Rules

The top 8 - For the busy among you read these if you read nothing else:

1. 1. The onus is on the question creator to produce clear well-structured non-duplicate questions with accurate likelihood estimates.
2. 2. Predictions made on questions after the settlement information becomes public knowledge will be voided.
3. 3. Hubdub admins endeavor to settle questions on a "best effort" basis, but in some circumstances there may be a delay between suspension and settlement.
4. 4. Where the meaning of a question is in dispute, the most common sense meaning will be taken, as judged by Hubdub admin.
5. 5. If you dispute the settlement of a question please contact us.
6. 6. Only questions that can be settled against public news sources are allowed (apart from Hubdub questions).
7. 7. All user-created sports questions should suspend prior to start of the event.
8. 8. No user-created in-running questions are allowed apart from selected business and sports questions (for a full list, click here).

2.2 General Rules - covering all categories

• Hubdub management will endeavour to solicit and incorporate community feedback into rules changes.
• These rules will change over time. In the event of a rule change the changes will be posted on the Hubdub notice board.
• Any rule change may be applied retroactively on a case-by-case basis.

• The website may, at any time, be temporarily unavailable for unscheduled technical reasons.
• In these circumstances, Hubdub will make best efforts to re-instate the site, however any losses suffered by users will not be re-credited.

• As far as possible, times on the website are shown in your timezone for your convenience. The 'core' timezone for the website however is PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT, daylight savings are not observed).
• A week will begin at 00.00 PST Sunday and close at 23.59 PST on Saturday.
• If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. "Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5th?" would be resolved using local time (GMT/BST). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs.
• Unless otherwise specified, the relevant time period to which the question refers begins from the date of creation of the question.
• Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST.
• If the user does not define the date format and it is ambiguous then it will be assumed to be US format MM/DD/YY.
• If the question creator does not specify the year then it will be assumed that they intended the next instance of that date (not later years).
• If the question creator does not specify the jurisdiction within an event does or does not take place, and it is ambiguous, then it will be assumed to refer to the US.
• If a question refers to an event occurring in a country, then it will be considered to have occurred if it occurs on land, within its territorial waters or airspace.
• Besides markets regarding seismic events, the UN World Macro Regions and Components will be used as a classification system for continents and world regions.

• While it will endeavour not to, Hubdub may suspend a question for any period at any time and for any duration.
• Under normal circumstances, i.e. where there is no dispute over an outcome, a question will only be suspended when it is about to be settled or when a sports event has started
• While a question is suspended, it will not be possible to place any new predictions or to cash-in any existing predictions on that question.
• A question will be suspended automatically when the Suspend date and time (as entered by the question creator) are reached.
• Best practise is for question creators to set the suspend date when the question will definitely be known (non-sports) or at the start of the sports event (sports).
• Hubdub administrators may amend the Suspend date and/or time if either has been entered incorrectly by the question creator or if circumstances change.
• Suspend dates should not be set for any date greater than 7 days in advance of the expected settlement date. There may be exceptions to this rule where have a question suspend for less than 7 days will remove any predictive element to the market.
• In the event where no Suspend date or time has been entered, Hubdub administrators may enter them should they be deemed necessary.
• The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is "Who will Edwards endorse?" and the suspend date is February 5th then the question should not be interpreted as "Who will Edwards endorse by February 5th?".

• All questions should be in English.
• Questions should be about news stories that the creator expects a significant number of other users are interested in.
• All non-Hubdub questions should be settled from public news sources. Therefore private questions which are only of interest to a small group of people, e.g. date of childbirth for a non-public figure, are not allowed.
• All questions should provide context in which they are created (e.g. through linking to a relevant news story), particularly when it is un-obvious how the starting prices were derived. All websites linked to should be in English.
• Hubdub does not permit markets on the impending death (for example how or when) of people, or markets considered to be death tolls, unless expressly approved at the discretion of the Category Editor. This rule will apply even in the context of a mainstream news story. This rule applies to all markets created after February 10, 2009.
• Questions should have a clear resolution and not be open to gaming. Questions that have failed this criteria include number of Search engine (e.g. Google, Yahoo, etc.) search results for a certain term (varies by user); whether something will be listed on eBay; home page tickers; and whether a particular picture will appear on a news site's home page; and how many live questions or predictions Hubdub will have.
• All outcomes of questions should have an initial likelihood between 1% and 99%.
• Questions which refer to the number of times a certain person says a certain phrase or word in a specific speech or debate are not allowed unless there is a recognised news organization that has stated it will or a Hubdub category editor has agreed to maintain a count.
• All questions which refer to Hubdub should be categorised in the Hubdub category only.
• Questions concerning whether specific articles or photos will appear on the home page of a particular website on a particular day are not allowed.
• Individuals are not permitted to predict on markets over which they have direct control or excessive influence eg 'When will X have a net worth of $6 million Hubdollars' and 'When will Nicole Kidman announce her second pregnancy', where X and Nicole Kidman are known users on Hubdub.

• While Hubdub will make every effort to settle a question within a reasonable time frame after the question has been suspended, in some circumstances there may be a delay between suspension and settlement. Members should assist the settlement process by sending in settlement requests clearly stating the correct answer and a link to a confirmation news report.
• If a question is determined after 2pm PST (10pm GMT), it may not be settled until the following day (our editors are all based in the UK and need to sleep!).
• When a question's outcome is determined at night, it may not be settled until the next morning. If a question's outcome is determined at a weekend, it may not be settled until the following Monday. These time frames are based on the local time in which the relevant category editor is based - currently, we have category editors in the US, UK, Canada and Australia.
• Unless the settlement rules clearly state otherwise, Hubdub may settle questions before the suspend date if the outcome is clear and not subject to change.
• Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome.
• If there is a consensus among main stream news sources that something will happen then we will generally settle it as having occurred.
• In questions on news where initial reports are often inaccurate, questions will generally be suspended on initial reports however they will not be settled until there is a stronger consensus among news sources. If the consensus results in the question remaining open then it will be unsuspended.
• At the suspend date, where it's reasonable to assume that the non-reporting of an event can be taken as it not having happened, the question will be settled as no.
• Where the nominated settlement source is out of line with a majority of other reputable news or information sources, or has information missing, the category editor may choose to disregard the settlement source. In such a case, the category editor will list the alternative sources used to confirm settlement.
• Where 'season' questions are settled by a match/event which occurs when the market has not yet suspended, predictions will be backvoided until the beginning of the relevant match.
• Predictions will be cancelled after the first available online news source reporting the event has been published. This is typically done via a google news search. Having your prediction cancelled does not imply any suggestion of cheating.

• Where the meaning of a question is in dispute, the most common sense meaning will be taken, as judged by Hubdub admin.
• In identifying the common sense meaning Hubdub admin may draw on the final resolution of previously disputed questions.
• Based on the consensus reached by users, Hubdub will make a final decision on settlement.
• Should there be no clear consensus on the outcome, Hubdub may void the question. If the question has already been settled, then voiding will result in the stakes on losing predictions being returned to users. However winning predictions will retain their winnings.

• Hubdub may void the question if:
  • It's a duplicate
  • It's poorly worded, vague or ambiguous
  • It's impossible to settle objectively
  • The initial likelihood values are not accurate
  • It does not have a wide following
  • A change of circumstances has occurred (see section below)
• A question will be considered a duplicate if its true forecast probability is 95% or greater similar to an existing question (e.g. "Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 3rd?" would generally be considered a duplicate of "Will candidate X drop out of the race by March 2nd?").
• The onus is on the question creator to demonstrate that the percentage estimate is accurate through linking to relevant news articles or data sources. Not doing so could result in the question being voided.
• When a question has been voided, the question creator will receive an automated email informing them that it has been voided. Hubdub Category Editors will endeavour to include a manual explanation if it is not clear.
• Users who have made a prediction on a question which has been voided will be able to see the voided question with an explanation for the voiding in their My Predictions tab, under Voided.
• Hubdub will void all predictions made after the outcome of a question becomes public knowledge (sorry no prizes for predicting what is already known).
• Hubdub does not vet every question and comment posted on the site. If a user has a complaint or an issue with a particular question or comment, it should be flagged by the user.
• For conditional questions, e.g. If John Edwards drops out, who will he endorse, if the initial condition (e.g. "If John Edwards drops out") is not met, the question will be voided.
• If a question requires settlement information that is not straight forward to collate/find/research, the category editor may - at their discretion - void the question at any stage during the market or after its suspension.
• A question may be voided if it is within a series of nuisance questions created. Nuisance question creating involvese multiple similar questions that are in contravention of Hubdub rules; or multiple questions that require editing to make them publishable. Additionally, if a user continues to create nuisance questions their account may be suspended.
• If a question is judged to have settlement requirements that would be too onerous or difficult to research, the category editor has the discretion to void the question.

• If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided and all stakes returned to users.
• Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has been settled may result in us re-settling in favor of that outcome (with winnings on the previous winning outcome being retained).
• If an event is postponed, the suspend date will be moved out accordingly.
• An outcome may be listed against a question and due to a change of circumstances, that outcome is no longer actually possible, e.g. a date which has already past. In this event, the outcome will still be offered as an option and any users selecting that outcome will lose their stake on settlement.

• Question creators may not make a prediction on their created question until 6 hours after question creation.
• An outcome of "Around X%" will only be acceptable if the creator specifies what they mean by "around". In general it is better to specify a range, e.g. 0-5%.
• The term "by" will be considered to be exclusive of the date referenced. E.g. "Will the satellite hit earth by March 25th?" will be settled as a "Yes" if it hits prior to March 25th, and 'No' if it hits on March 25th or later. Where possible, category editors should edit 'by' to 'before', to avoid ambiguity.
  In outcomes involving dates which are intended to be mutually exclusive, it is suggested that 'between' is inclusive of the dates given unless this leads to date overlap in the outcomes. Where possible, category editors should edit to 'on or between' or 'between, exclusive of' to avoid ambiguity.
• The terms "at" or "on" in reference to dates will be considered to only include the point in time referred to.
• Hubdub may unilaterally amend created questions, e.g. to correct typos, settlement information and outcome ranges however we will not amend the meaning of a question that has already had predictions placed on it.
• From time to time, Hubdub may also unilaterally amend obvious typos that would change the meaning of the question had they been interpreted literally. E.g. "Will Yahoo be bought in 1008?" would be amended to the creator's intended question "Will Yahoo be bought in 2008?".
• Any offensive questions or comments will be edited, voided or deleted. Users posting such comments/questions will be given a warning and their usage of the site will be monitored. Should they continue to post offensive or unacceptable comments/ questions, they will be banned from using the site.
• Creator will be the first point of contact for all major ambiguities. However, if there is no response within 12 hours, the editor will step in and make changes necessary to clarify question. All edits will be logged on comments page, and the editor will make best efforts to notify the creator via shout or email.
• Admins may add background information and pictures to enhance a market. The editor will make best efforts to notify the creator via shout or email should this occur.
• Questions using subjective language may be edited, voided or deleted. The editor will make best efforts to notify the creator via shout or email should this occur.

• Gaming of the system is explicitly not allowed. Gaming includes:
  • Creation of multiple accounts
  • Creation of questions with deliberately inaccurate price estimates
  • Use of multiple accounts to transfer Hubdub dollars from one to the other
• However we cannot provide an exhaustive list of what is considered gaming. As a guide, if you believe the wider Hubdub community would consider an activity as gaming then it probably is.
• In the event that user is considered to be gaming he/she then the procedure is as follows:
  • 1st offence: Email warning
  • 2nd offence: Fined 50% of net worth and publicly named for 2 weeks
  • 3rd offence: Account deactivated
• If the first offence is considered particularly blatant then we may move to the fine or deactivation.
• We reserve the right to suspend or deactivate accounts at any time without prior notification.

2.3 Category Specific Rules

• Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question.
• In the event that a state primary/caucus/convention question results in a tie between candidates then the question will be settled as the winner of the popular vote.
• If the settlement source is not specified in settlement details and there is disagreement between news sources as to outcome of a question then the result will be settled against the following sources in order: CNN, MSNBC, FOX, Reuters and then the BBC (i.e. We will consult CNN first. If it does not report on the event then we will consult MSNBC etc)
• Unless specified otherwise, a question asking when a public figure will resign will be settled on the date the figure announces their intention to resign rather than the date the resignation becomes effective (the Spitzer clause).

• Best practise is for sports match questions to be phrased "Team B @ Team A: Who will win on 11/17/08?" where Team A is the home team. If a draw occurs more often than 1 in every 100 games of this type of sport then the draw should be offered as an outcome.
• If the question concerns whether a certain player will play in a particular game, the question can be settled when the team/squad is announced.
• In general sports questions will be suspended prior to the start of the game in question. Any predictions made on a question accidentally left open during a game will be voided on settlement.
• Questions on sports events should not include postponement as an outcome. In the event of postponement the question will stand but the suspend time will be extended.
• Hubdub will select 1 - 3 questions each week which are suitable for in-play during a sporting event, and will amend the suspend time appropriately. Users will be notified which questions are in-play via the question title (which will be marked IN-PLAY) and the Hubdub blog.
• For questions dependent on the outcome of a series of entire matches (such as seasonal questions), the question may remain open while there remains a significant predictive element between at least two options.
• Suspend dates may be amended at the Category Editor's discretion in order to minimise the suspend time while maintaining the predictive capacity of a question.
• In questions regarding the next appointment of a captain, coach or similar position, unless explicitly stated otherwise, a temporary appointment will be used for settlement should the temporary appointee assume the full duties and responsibilities of the position.

• The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielsen EDI for that period.
• General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
• For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm PST on the Friday. Any predictions made after that point will be voided.
• "Opening weekend" will run from Friday to Sunday
• If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.
• For questions regarding box office takings, all questions relate to North American (US and Canada) domestic takings, unless otherwise specified. Earnings are in $US unless otherwise specified.
• All questions about box office takings will refer to North American domestic (US and Canada) unless otherwise stated. Takings are measured in $US unless otherwise stated.

• Questions may be asked about television programs where results are announced live, for example, American Idol. Questions may also be asked on television programs which are pre-recorded, but for which the outcome is not known (for example, if two different outcomes have been recorded). However, questions related to pre-recorded shows where the result is known are banned.
• Settlement will be based on the final outcome of the Show as televised (either as live or recorded) on the official associated television network.
• The means by which a winner is determined will vary between shows so Hubdub will settle questions based on the official rules of the specific show
• If necessary, Hubdub may determine a winner for expiration purposes using the Dispute process (see above).
• Should the rules or the nature or timing of the contest change significantly, Hubdub may immediately amend these rules accordingly.
• Events where a tie is a possibility should have that outcome listed on question creation.
• In the event of two or more individuals/teams being awarded the title or unexpected joint winners of the show, if there is no outcome for this listed in the question, then the question will be settled as a win for all winning outcomes.
• If a contestant is disqualified for any reason before the outcome is settled, then predictions on them will be settled as losing predictions.
• Official changes to the outcome made before the question is settled will stand.
• If a winner is disqualified after the question has been settled, then the question may be re-settled as the new winning outcome.

• The question will be settled based on the winner of the award as officially declared by the specific Award Board in question.
• For disqualification, see TV Shows above.
• Nielsen will be used as the definitive source for TV ratings and number of viewers.

• For questions with regards takeovers an "offer" is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
• Unless otherwise specified, questions asking whether company X will be acquired (or merge with company Y) by date Z will be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement.
• Questions can be made about the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite Index. Questions on any other indices are permitted at the Category Editor's discretion, taking into account - inter alia - the likely cash volume of the market, and coverage across the category . Questions should not be made about the performance of individual stocks unless they are referring to stocks that are major news stories, and only with the approval of the Category Editor.
• In-play indices markets are limited and will have varying suspend times. For a full list of indices markets permitted, click here
• As best practice, the settlement source for exchange rate information should be www.fxstreet.com

• Self-referential questions which can be gamed easily like "Will this question get on the homepage?" or "Will this question get H$100,000 in predictions?" are not allowed and will be voided.
• Self-referential questions that cannot be settled to all outcomes (e.g. "Will this question be voided?") are also not allowed and will be voided.
• Hubdub staff will not participate on any questions on which they have inside knowledge through their employment with Hubdub.
• Questions on how many users Hubdub will have, or how many users will vote on a question, are not permitted.
• Questions on how many live question or predictions Hubdub will have are not allowed.
• Questions relating to the net worth or other details of an individual user's Hubdub account are not allowed.

• All weather questions should state the units of measurement (Celsius, Inches, Feet etc).
• All temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details will be taken to be the common scale for the region or country in which the weather occurred. For the avoidance of doubt that means Celsius in Europe (including the UK) and Fahrenheit in the US. If the region or country has no commonly agreed scale then Fahrenheit will be used.
• Temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details, do not include wind chill factor
• If a question concerns the amount of snowfall or rainfall falling in a particular day, it must be for a full day (00.00 midnight to 23.59). If it concerns a period longer than a day (e.g. week), it must be to the nearest day.
• Questions regarding the weather for a specific area clearly defined and listed in NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/wx.html) or other reputable online weather sources that issue frequently updated weather reports (i.e. http://www.weather.gov). In countries outside the USA, an equivalent organization or online news source will determine settlement
• Should the question creator not specify the settlement source, then government meteorological websites will be considered to be the definitive news source. For example, http://www.weather.gov/ and http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ will be used as the definitive weather sources for the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. A directory of similar national meteorological websites can be found through the World Meteorological Organization http://www.wmo.ch/pages/index_en.html
• Questions should be specific and clearly worded. For example, "Will the temperature in Washington, DC, exceed 50 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, (Month), (Day), (Year)?"
• Snowfall will be measured in inches unless otherwise stated in the question details
• Snowfall does not include snow drifts
• Best practise on creating weather questions is to link directly to the settlement source in the settlement details
• For Hurricane/Cyclone markets, landfall is determined at the time and location the center or eye moves over a landmass.
2.3.6.2 Auctions
• For markets regarding online and offline auctions, in any category, the hammer price will be used for settlement unless otherwise indicated by the question. This excludes any fees incurred by the buyer such as a "buyers commission." For all auctions the currency conversion will be sourced via the FXStreet Rates Table on day of auction.

• Unless otherwise specified in the settlement details the preferred settlement source for World questions will be Reuters

• All earthquakes in America, and earthquakes around the world greater than 4 on the Moment Magnitude, will be settled using http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/ unless otherwise specified. Earthquakes around the world less than 4 will be settled using http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=current&sub=list
• All earthquake questions will be settled based on preliminary data released by the source, regardless of whether the figures are later revised. The date and time at which settlement sources are checked will be posted on settlement details.
• For questions which state a particular country/continental location, the earthquake must occur on land or within 12 nautical miles of the stated location.
• We have created continental classifications according to Flinn-Engdahl sesimic regions as listed at http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/epic/fer.html. Questions which state a particular continent will be settled based on the countries listed in the following seismic regions:
  • Africa: 37
  • Antarctica: 50
  • Asia: 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 41, 47, 48
  • Australia: 38
  • Europe: 30, 31, 36, 49
  • North America: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 34
  • South America: 8, 9, 35