Iraq
Recent predictions
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50 predictors (365 days)
deanthoreau
Will Dick Cheney be arrested for War Crimes before 1/1/10?
Current forecast: 2% chance
2%16 predictors (365 days)
misterbojangles
How many more Iraq Vets will commit suicide before the troops are withdrawn?
Current forecast: 7218 to 14,400 suicides (52% chance
52%)14 predictors (365 days)
Will Osama Bin Ladin be captured or killed before 2010?
Current forecast: 6% chance
6%10 predictors (365 days)
Will President Obama make good on his promise to end the Iraq War in 16 months from inauguration?
Current forecast: 8% chance
4%8 predictors (365 days)
Who will go first - will the USA leave Iraq before Mugabe steps down as president?
Current forecast: USA acknowledges defeat in Iraq and commits to withdraw (51% chance
19%)8 predictors (365 days)
Which country will be the first to be balkanized?
Current forecast: None of the above (29% chance
33%)8 predictors (365 days)
Will any Bush admistration cabinet member be arrested on war crimes charges before 2010?
Current forecast: 7% chance
2%6 predictors (365 days)
Will a transferred detainee from GITMO escape from a US penal or holding facility by 2011?
Current forecast: 12% chance
12%5 predictors (365 days)
When will the US pull out of Iraq?
Current forecast: 2011 or later (74% chance
30%)
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