anaverageamerican

Settlement date was intended to be 2008, not 2009. I've requested the category editors to edit the question. Wager accordingly!

More nanny state lunacy. The whole plastic bag killing marine life issue is the result of an error in a research paper that was citing another research paper about the effects of lost commercial fishing nets on marine life. Land of the free ... was true once upon a time. But they're doing it for our own good!

@buzzmachine,

All newspapers fold ... that's how the expression, "below the fold", originated. Just kidding 8^). Could you clarify whether you mean ceases to operate, or receivership/bankruptcy? IMO, "fold" would mean ceases operation.

Regards,
AAA

Peyton's old news .. how about Eli?

Go Giants,
AAA

Can you cite any articles in the MSM in which Obama has shown any inclination to include Republicans in his cabinet? Initial odds favoring Three seem a bit off without supporting documentation.

Neither flagging nor suspending.

Regards,
AAA

I approve of what I believe this question means, but I think the use of arrest in the question makes it unable to be settled. @curios I appreciate that your HD question seeks to draw attention to the genocide in Darfur, but I'm not sure "arrest" is operative in this case. Sudan rejects the court's jurisdiction (as does the US). This from FoxNews "The head of Sudan's Bar Association and ruling party stalwart, Fathi Khalil told The Associated Press that Sudan was not a member of the International Criminal Court and was not bound by Moreno-Ocampo's decision.", and this, "... but al-Bashir is unlikely to be sent to The Hague any time soon. Sudan rejects the court's jurisdiction ...".

Also, given Sudan's rejection of the ICC the initial odds are probably off. If this question gets voided, I encourage you to resubmit it with more accurate odds and a question more of the form, "Will Omar al-Bashir be brought to justice by the International Criminal Court for the Genocide in Darfur?"

I'm flagging to the CatEd, but not suspending it.

Regards,
AAA

Is mistrial (Hung Jury) only for a hung jury, or for any mistrial (such as improper instructions to the jury, or juror statements to the press)?

Is Fiji (Vijay Singh) considered Asia?

I don't think the choices cover enough of the possibilities to permit this question to remain open without an "Other" choice. Flagged, but not suspended.

swilson, I just noticed what you meant in your earlier comment and flagged this question asking the category editor to change the suspend date to Aug 9, 2008 rather than Aug 9, 2009.

How do you unambiguously determine whether or not the Taliban have, "asserted control", over Peshawar? As reported by a MSM source is as likely to be opinion as fact, and while there are some good reporters at the NYT, the Gray Lady has strayed quite far into, "every story is an opinion piece", territory. For the NYT, and much of the rest of the MSM, Peshawar will be in Taliban hands as soon as it will help Obama get elected.

swilson, that's "Suspend Date", not "Settlement Date". Most sports questions are supposed to suspend (stop accepting wagers) prior to the event beginning. Many of the Olympic events, including sailing, begin on August 9th. This question won't settle until it occurs, or the Olympic sailing competition ends without it occurring.

ryanj, can you edit the question to say "overt US strikes"? Not everybody reads the comments.

DC already had a policy of not prosecuting people who use a handgun self-defense for weapons violations, even prior to today's SCOTUS decision overturning the DC handgun ban.

Umm, guys, we're never going to run out of oil unless we decide to. At least one high-tech company has created genetically-engineered bacteria that can make oil out of any substance containing sugar ... so they've basically solved the energy and waste-disposal problems simultaneously. And don't even get me started on human-induced global warming, there may be some consensus, but it is most definitely _not_ based on science.

What a bummer! I had missed this "news", and it certainly makes the world a poorer place. Two of the idols of my youth, dead within a few months. Arthur C. Clarke who taught me to look towards the future with hope, wonder, and some trepidation ("Hal, open the pod bay doors.", "I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that"). And George Carlin who taught me there is no subject to which humor can't be applied, in spite of societal mores ("I used to ask my priest, 'Is God so all-powerful that he can create a rock so heavy that he cannot lift it?'")

Long live the ideas of two radically different radicals. The dichotomy of their views in no way invalidates those ideas ... their is often truth, on both sides of, convergent ideas.

Philosophically yours,
AAA (a saddened AAA)

Hey Mork, can you clarify what you mean by "resolve". I'm guessing you mean she's allowed into the UK, but I can imagine some other intertpretation. The reason notablenotices URL was truncated was the single-quote.

Heh. I've been involved in market research for the past 20+ years, but not political polling. I always use it as an excuse _not_ to be polled or surveyed (I'm ineligible, I work in market research 8^)

Tim Russert is not smiling, he's dying (pardon the expression) to ask each candidate several pointed questions. If tax rebates are announced due to the candidates refusing public financing, I think, "flying pigs", will be the least of our worries. "Hell freezing over", is likely more apropos.

It's the Wild West (really west, in the most western parts of BC, which are to the west of the US lower forty-eight).

REWARD H$10,000.
Wanted: Dead or Alive:
The people who's severed feet have washed ashore in the BC islands.
Please walk, limp, crawl or be carried to your nearest RCMP station.

ryanb37,

Your comment is very poorly structured. It demonstrates a lack of knowledge regard

I have an "Inconvenient Truth" for Al Gore (the most recent in a long line of undeserving Nobel 'laureates', including the terrorist Yasser Arafat). Global temperatures as reported by NASA and the IPCC have not risen at all since 1998.

Not to mention this:
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewCulture.asp?Page=/Culture/archive/200703/CUL20070301c.html

Regards,
AAA

I flagged, but didn't suspend this question because the choices are not exclusive. If another foot washes ashore in June the question settles. Then if another foot washes ashore in July a storm erupts since the question does not specify. "No other foot washes ashore before one in July". I'm pretty sure that was jchiang's intent (correct me if I'm wrong). I have asked if the category editors can change the choices to be in-line with this interpretation of the question, but I'm not sure they are able to edit the choices.

It's an interesting question jchiang, don't be discouraged if it gets voided. If that happens please resubmit it with choices like:
- Another foot washes ashore in June
- No foot in June, but at least one in July
- No feet in June - July, but at least one in August
- No feet June - August, but at least one in September
- None by suspension date

Regards,
AAA

vnh,

Flagged. There will be no way to settle this in a definitive way. It doesn't matter what the parties say, it matters what they do. So let's say, Hamas Lt. Ibrahim decides to send a rocket into Israel, and Hamas leadership denies "ordering" the attack. How does this settle?

Over 121 million voters participated in the US presidential elections in 2004. Gallup's methodology for this tracking poll is: "For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.". Yet they claim a margin of >2% is statistically significant. Yeah, right!

They poll .00165% of voters in the most recent US presidential election, who are adults and may or may not be registered to vote, and claim a statistically significant margin is +/- 2%?

Reading further, of the, "at least 1,000 US adults", they poll, apparently all are not registered voters since, "The general-election results are based on combined data from June 14-16, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,605 registered voters".

So after polling some small thousandths of a percent of possible voters, Gallup claims their degree of error falls within */-2%. Balderdash!

The problem is that everyone bemoaning the fate of the world due to global warming are basing their assumptions on a bunch of computer models that disagree with one another and have failed to predict anything accurately. Global temperatures haven't risen since 1998, and seemed poised for a decline. Anyone claiming the "science is settled" regarding global warming needs to gain a better understanding of what science is: theory, hypothesis, experiment, proof. The global warming crowd have a different agenda: theory, hypothesis (unprovable for a long period of time), justify funding increases.

ryanj,

Thanks for unsuspending this.

I requested settlement and suspended having missed "right foot" in the question. I've flagged it and asked for it to be unsuspended. My apologies.

Ryan,

I apologize (again). It is now apparent that I've got your position and Destry's reversed. IMO, commentator does not equal host, so this question should remain open, or be voided for contention and lack of restraint by super user AAA.

I'm very conservative in suspending questions, and try to let the category editors run things. We super-users are supposed to help the cause, not police it, and I got carried away in my initial misinterpretation on Destry's post.

IMO, commentator != host. Ryan leaving this open is appropriate.

And I apologize for my indiscretion in the comments.

AAA

I meant host is to commentator. A commentator on a news show, or news magazine, is _not_ the host (they are a guest, even if they are frequently invited). This is true even if they are only a commentator on one program.

AAA

@RyanJ, I'm not trying to be incendiary, but commentator is to host, as play-by-play man is to color commentator. Considering the H$ that have been invested I recommend a void.

AAA

I agree this might be difficult to settle. I think only the US flag will be flying on 7/4 because Abu Dhabi would not want the negative publicity inherent in doing otherwise.

I hope the category editors are paying attention.

Does, "Removed as judge (not by his choice)", mean removed from this trial or completely removed as a judge?

I've always wondered what it would be like to fall into a black hole. I imagine it would be excruciatingly painful as the tidal stresses tore apart your body ... like being drawn-and-quartered on steroids. Not that I want it to happen or anything, lots of things are _way_ better to speculate about than to experience, I'm just an SF fan who's wondered about this particular demise.

kruijs, are you trying to give the BBC preference between these two, overlapping, options:
1) "No Damage" (or similar) explicitly reported
2) Results reported without referring to damage

I could definitely see some media sources reporting option 1 and others option 2. If the BBC holds trump it's probably okay, although I suppose different articles on bbc.co.uk could report it differently as well.

Not just creative, well-constructed. Nice job raidersin09.

No, "re-distribution of wealth" is what a Socialist would call it. The Democrats call it, "taxing the rich", and the Republicans call it "compassionate conservatism". The result is the same in all cases, though.

@mork, based on the settlement of this question: http://www.hubdub.com/m8698, I'm curious whether Lesley invested in "Yes" or "No".

AAA 8^)

VNH,

Could you clarify what you mean regarding, "a favorable conclusion"? I can think of several, "favorable conclusions", that might _not_ be what you intended in creating this question. Here are some potential conclusions, which do you consider favorable? I'm not trying to get this question voided, in fact I have a (full-disclosure) H$100 on "Yes". I'm just trying to minimize the ambiguity, and ensure the settlement reflects your intentions.

1) Lake is restored to it's normal shoreline
2) Catastrophic flood does not occur before suspend date
3) Water level in lake is declining, but the lake is not at normal level by suspend date
4) Dam bursts without catastrophic loss of life

I'd also like to point out that I think the initial odds seem quite reasonable.

Regards,
AAA

I think there will be 100 extra W keys left for GW Bush's successor.

They're called "mortar boards" in case anyone is trying to google for this information.

I'm not flagging this, but a lot of the "users" who show up on the "All Time Net Worth" Leader Board aren't really users. Apparently they are folks who signed up but never replied to the confirmation e-mail. This came up in a thread on gaming on the GetSatisfaction forum a couple of months ago.

Having said that I think the intent of this question is quite clear and the market should be allowed to go forward.

There's a lot of speculation that McCain is going to choose Lieberman, which makes a lot of sense if he figures that conservative Republican are a lost cause but he can win from the center.

ironman288,

Super users cannot settle markets, just suspend them, pending administrator intervention. For the most part we limit ourselves to suspending questions whose premise has already been reached (such as a sporting event whose outcome is known), and questions with obvious errors (overlapping choices, question differs from settlement details).

I haven't really looked at, or expressed any opinion about, this particular question. I'm just making sure the "power" of the super users is clearly articulated.

Regards,
AAA

I'm not sure even the category editors can change the choices. I think they are limited to editing the question text and background. You might have to get this voided and recreate it yet again, VH. Great question though, even if it is proving to be a lot of work for you.

Hmm, I might have to flag this as the initial odds appear considerably off 8^) Best wishes to Nigel & Lesley!

That is sick, but IMO Hartford officials blew this way out of proportion. Four people called 911 within seconds of the incident, and it may have taken a minute for the shock to wear off, but a crowd of people moved out into the road to draw attention and keep him from being struck by another car. In a situation such as this, you should _NOT_ move the victim.

Hartford officials are backtracking from their initial statements, from FoxNews:

"However, Roberts and other city officials backtracked on Thursday. After initially saying he was unsure whether anyone called 911, he and other city officials appeared at a news conference in which they said that four people dialed 911 within a minute of the accident, and that Torres received medical attention shortly after that.

City Council President Calixto Torres said viewers of the 1 1/2-minute videotape might mistakenly believe that no one helped.

"I think this moved too quickly," he said. "I think it moved too quick and we were putting information out that was incomplete. What I think was missing is the fact that this happened in a very short period of time."

Roberts said his initial angry reaction was based on what he saw in the video. "The video was very graphic and sent a very bad message," the police chief said."

Interesting how this question resonates with (or perhaps against) the Obama "post-racial" meme ... I detect an interference pattern. Obama's true message is change, we haven't had a _Chicago_ politician in national politics lately; and never one as liberal as Obama.

Sorry randburg I disagree. YSL is not a celebrity in Kathmandu or Teheran. That's the whole problem with this question.

I've been busy all afternoon and just noticed that I seem to have caused some controversy. I stand by my comment that "celebrity" cannot be unambiguously settled, but apologize to ryan37 for inadvertently attributing ryanj's edit to his question as his statement.

OTOH, there are a lot of Mexicans who consider Felipe Calderon a celebrity.

Heh, I just read this whole thread and was amused that my super-user colleague Jenni thinks the admins only created super-users from folks who could spend. "more time", on the site. I wish that were the case! I even warned them that I probably wouldn't have enough time to thoroughly "police" the site ... but I devote most of my lunch hour to investigating HubDub questions.

LOL,
AAA

Apple Corp suing to prevent NYC from using an apple logo to promote environmental awareness seems like a complete bonehead PR move from a company that usually is very PR savvy.

Yeah, we're letting the power go to our heads! In the past week I've suspended one question. I now refuse to participate in markets in which there is the slightest possibility of ambiguity in order to to avoid conflicts of interest. So who are all these people who think we're abusing our (limited) powers? I bet they're dead people who are registered to vote in Chicago.

shamell, send the category editor a settlement request and ask them to edit the question to add 911 to turbo.

chatarra did not explicitly state whether they meant popular vote in Colorado, or electoral college vote in Colorado, so I escalated this to a discussion of new rules at this link:

http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/new_rule_proposal_for_us_presidential_elections

You might have to subscribe to GetSatisfaction.com to gain access to the Hubdub customer service forums. We hubdubbers wield enormous power here, so let your voice be heard! (Just kidding Nigel 8^)

Popular vote or electoral college?

Wow, the Libertarians got more than 60% of the 3rd party vote .. who would have predicted that? Or even been aware of it after the fact? We need a multi-party (as opposed to two-party) system here in the US ... I can't tell you how many of my friends and colleagues are dissatisfied with both of the "major" political parties. During the Bush years I've said, "We have a choice between 'tax-and-spend' Democrats, and 'tax-cut-and-spend' Republicans", but I don't think that will be the case after any of the 'cap-and-trade' global warming believers (global temperatures have been decreasing since 1998), and 'universal health care' candidates are elected.

It's certain to be tax and spend. I'll vote for McCain in the hope that his SCOTUS nominations will be better than the Democrats ... but living in a majority blue East Coast state it won't matter for whom I vote. I shouldn't have to vote, I should be "the decider". 8^)

Err octopi, not otcopi. theonecalledmichael, what is an otcopi? 8^)

The ban was never about the fans tossing otcopi on the ice, it was a ban on Red Wing employees twirling them around, to excite the crowd, while picking them up. The stated reason for the ban was to prevent "matter" from affecting the quality of the ice, so the compromise is that Red Wing employees can twirl the octopi in off-ice locations such as the zamboni vestibule.

I can't find any news reports about the tossing and twirling, but prior to game one an octopus was tossed onto the ice and twirled in the zamboni ramp.

There is one _HUGE_difference between the candidates, who they will nominate for up to 5 positions on SCOTUS. I'm no fan of McCain, but I'd much rather he was doing the nominating that either Obama or Clinton. Obama makes a big deal out of having been a Constitutional Law professor, but he's got some novel ideas about the role of the Supremes:

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/what-kind-of-justice-would-president-obama-mete-out/

The ban was overturned. Twirliing is permitted as long as it is done away from the ice.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080508/BLOG09/80507089/1053/SPORTS05

An octopus was thown onto the ice, and twirled in the zamboni driveway prior to the start of game one, but I can't find a news story reporting such. Since the outright ban was lifted I think it is unlikely there _will_ be a news story about it.

@Mork, what happens if there are exactly three?

Great question fingers, but I have to pass on it. I wouldn't want Skipper to be forced to inherit my position on it 8^)

I think the initial odds on this question are a bit suspect as well. The US started at 50% and Iran at only 25%; but the US hasn't vowed to wipe another country off the map like Iran has.

Now that the Myanmar junta's genocidal goals have been met they will begin accepting visa applications. I doubt any additional 4en (couldn't resist 8^) aid workers will be allowed in before June.

All the traders are watching this Hubdub market, trying to figure out what to do 8^)

@Mork,

If you do recreate this question you should clarify whether it only refers to pardons, or to all petitions granted (including commutation of sentences and remission of fines).

Here are the relevant statistics http://www.justice.gov/pardon/actions_administration.htm#clinton

It is surprising how they are trending downward.

Flagged. I've requested this question be edited so it is possible to settle it as No if the Reds lose.

Is this just pardons, or does sentence commutation and clemency also count?

You have overlords in front of the wall-sticking robot Skipper 8^)

If Oscar Pistorius is on both the SA relay team, and qualifies for the individual 400m, how will this question be settled?

The alphabet is almost certainly going to be the English alphabet. I'm sure you meant, "Which letter of the alphabet ..."

The alphabet is almost certainly going to be the English alphabet. I'm sure you meant, "Which letter of the alphabet ..."

Flagged for review. How can over or under 13,000 be settled by Yes or No? Well, maybe by Yes, but it seems improbable that this was intended ... and if it was it should be voided anyway.

They already shrink many humans via a process known as Basic Training. Do you have a link to a mainstream media news story? Or is this pure speculation (fabrication) on your part? Skipper, Bad dog! If the initial percentages weren't what they are I'd have to send you to your room!

Not only does the US government subsidize domestic corn growers who provide their crops to ethanol refiners, there is also a tariff on $0.54 a gallon on cheaper (and more efficiently produced) Brazilian sugar-cane based ethanol. So basically we're imposing a punitive tariff on the most efficient ethanol producers and simultaneously lining the pockets of the domestic farm lobby. And who pays? Never forget that the government's money should be your money, and when they waste it just so they can be re-elected, they are stealing it from _YOU_!

You got it backwards infernalmachine, it's like the Dow for Sports players 8^)

Religion is _so_ uplifting 8^)

There is no President George Bush, Jr. Bush 41 is George H.W. Bush. Bush 43 is George W. Bush. Hence, he is _not_ George Bush, Jr.

So you can go ahead and invest in "Yes" kruijs 8^)

Skipper, I'm not sending you to private school so you can ask, "Will there be a reproduction of "The Blues Brothers" be released in the USA in 2008?" It should be either, "Will a reproduction of "The Blues Brothers" be released in the USA in 2008?", or, "Will there be a reproduction of "The Blues Brothers" released in the USA in 2008?"

Application of the "common sense" rule suggests that it should be any vessel that is seized by pirates at sea.

Even as a pet owner (check out Skipper's avatar http://www.hubdub.com/e/User/_916) I have to say I hope this doesn't happen ... we need less government in the US and more personal responsibility. I don't think the government should be bailing _anyone_ out in the sub-prime mess. Those who purchased homes beyond their means with low, but adjustable, rate mortgages should have known better. And the investment bankers (like those at BSC) that packaged and traded in all the slimy derivative sub-prime mortgage products should have known better too. Caveat Emptor.

Condi could become President if she's the Veep and McCain dies while in office. The concern I have about this question is whether or not Obama is black.

Hey mork,

It all depends on who the Hubdubbers are. Could Obama be a secret Hubdubber, or Hillary (gaming the system by deciding whether to cry or not 8^), maybe even Karl Rove (who has had his first taste of coolness, since he bought an iPhone). Possibly elements of the mainstream media have infiltrated Hubdub seeking questions to ask the candidates. Inquiring conspiracy theorists want to know 8^)

I'm not trying to discriminate, citizens of the USA should feel free to chime in as well 8^)

No comments! I thought F1GP was the second most popular sport in the world (outside of the US), after football (which we average americans call soccer). So none of you non-americans want to discuss F1 on Hubdub ... I'm surprised!

kruijs, I understand what you meant, but in colloquial American English we would probably say, "woof, woof". No criticism is intended by my remark, I'm just trying to help you learn what passes for English in the US. Skipper, Sit! 8^)

From what I have read, it takes between 1-1.3 gallons of gasoline to produce 1 gallon of ethanol. The only green that applies to this situation is the greenbacks used for campaign contributions by the lobbyists for the agriculture industry.

Not to mention that skipper and chatarra both have dogs for avatars 8^)

skipper, if you read chatarra's comment carefully you'll see that they said they were voting for how they think SCOTUS will rule in spite of their personal opinion on the subject.

What do you mean by, "Luckily we were in different rooms!"? I've warned you about these rude comments! Skipper, Bad Dog 8^)

markov,

That is the actual size, but don't worry ... you just need a lower resolution monitor and it'll fit just fine 8^)

Since the site is based in Edinburgh, Scotland, I'd have to guess either Blue with a White Cross, or the Tartan of the McEccles clan 8^)

If you like out of the ordinary news, and regular news with (often hilarious) user-submitted headlines, I recommend http://www.fark.com. Hubdub should permit off-beat news that _is_ news, but not subvert it's goal to be "The News Predicting Game".

Err, power-user, not poer-user. It looks like I'm not the first to make this type (though I suppose it was a pen-o at the time):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baron_La_Poer

Excerpt:
Baron La Poer is a title in the Peerage of Ireland held by the Marquess of Waterford.

Nicholas fitz John le Poer, of Kilmeadan, was summoned to the Parliament of Ireland on the 23 November 1375, the 22 January 1377/8 and the 11 September 1380. The first of these summonses was the basis of a peerage claim nearly four hundred years later by Katherine, Dowager Countess of Tyrone, a descendant of Nicholas's daughter Ellen, who had married David Poer or Power, known as "Davey Rothe".

I agree with destry, it should be voided and recreated (if there's interest). I'm hoping the much anticipated poer-user question vetting process will help a lot with questions like this. I find my personal flag for review/invest in market ratio is around 4:1.

Hi diana,

The site does appear to be down at the moment. I'm not sure I agree that markets on _all_ auction sites should settle when the bid rises above the market's goal, that decision should be based on the specific auction site. This particular auction site requires bidders to go through an approval process to insure that bids are honored, so a bid is a firm contract. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with the same policy applying to Ebay.

I have had an update from the site's administrators, they had a hard drive failure and are working on a restore, the site should be back up tomorrow.

Destry, can you clarify what you mean by "additional powers" in the settlement details. I might be able to talk to animals, or breathe fire, by April 30th (probably both the way _my_ project is going 8^). The question refers to power-user vetting, is that the specific additional power to which this question refers?

Nice work Nigel, you created a political question in which I would favor Hillary Clinton over somebody else. I don't think there's really much of a comparison between Zimbabwean and US presidential elections, but the arcane nomination process for the US Democratic party candidate may not be so far away ... Mugabe just needs some super delegates 8^)

(seriously, for Zimbabwe, let's hope not)

Hey skipper, since the question is will "No" be _greater_ than "Yes", if it ends up 50/50 it should settle as "No", right?

Errr ..ROTFLMAO 8^) That pesky F-er.

I, for one, am shocked, shocked, to hear that you play Hubdub at work!

ROTLMAO 8^)

It looks as though we already have one 8^) Not everyone on HD is a native speaker of English (or even Americun), so I try to take it easy on spelling and grammatical usage Not to mention that my Austrian is terrible 8^)

What settlement date? The settlement details state, "Settlement rules: As reported on this auction site: http://bid.robertedwardauctions.com/bidplace.aspx?itemid=9758". The link provided is reporting that this card is already at $140,000, and bids on that site are not retractable. If the question creator had not put in a Suspend Date prior to the beginning of the auction, this would be turning into another Spitzer!

@fingers_of_fury,

The reason the suspend date is important is that it sends a message to the admins to take a look at the question. I have found several sporting event questions still open days after they occurred, because he question creator did not enter a suspend date and the admin did not notice the event was over.

Destry, the CIA does have "interrogation" centers in Egypt, but the tapes of satyaki being waterboarded have been destroyed 8^) I'm staying out of this fight, since I don't have the time to research the claims of the users. OTOH, if satyaki _is_ found to be gaiming the site, again, I believe his account should be deleted and his inbound IP blocked.

Rohan,

I have no clue. My older son is 16 and he's learning SQL in High School, but yeah, he's not that good at it yet. Not to mention that I was just teasing ... and that's pretty impressive Java coding for a 16 year old (unless you downloaded it all from the 'net 8^). I encourage you to study SQL (and XML, which is a text file that acts like a database), these days code is rarely significant absent databases; even if you are writing things like operating systems.

Rohan, if you have time to do that much programming to figure out a Hubdub question, I might be able to scare up a project or two for you ... pro bono of course 8^). How's your SQL?

newswrangler,

I have to agree with melmel07, the initial odds seem pretty unrealistic. I would have started with at least 75 to 80% on No, and I agree, in spite of the great settlement details, that this question should be voided.

This question should have a suspend date since it is supposed to end on April 15th. The suspend date should probably be far enough in advance of the end date that late investors are not given an unfair advantage.

For good or ill, Microsoft has a way of getting what it wants.

kruijs, you should have a "some other user" option.

I find it interesting that there are Hubdub admins creating such poorly structured, ambiguous and contentious questions. I felt badly when I created the question, "Will alleged pieces of the dead spy satellite show up on Ebay?", which caused a lot of controversy, and I have strived to only create questions that are unambiguous and can be settled objectively since. I'm not surprised by the general poor quality of questions created by users, but I would think the admins would hold themselves to a higher standard. To do so would be self-serving, since I'm sure the category admins spend considerably more time dealing with contentious questions/settlements than on the run-of-the-mill variety.

I'm not casting stones at any individual admins, or users, just pointing out an area for improvement. I think the entire Hubdub community, users and admins, could do a much better job of creating well structured questions. I find myself flagging many questions in which I would invest, if they were properly constructed.

The official FIA Formula One website is http://www.formula1.com. http://www.formulaone.com is a manufacturer of protective films for automobiles.

I agree. An improvement in methodology from your previous temperature difference questions, meanderingsearcher, and more challenging to predict! I did make a fair bit of H$ on those questions though ...

I put equal predictions on both options because I don't want to be accused of trying to game the site 8^)

Thanks for the edit tomg, this could have been very controversial otherwise 8^)

I think I'm going to create a Hubdub question, "What is the maximum amount of H$ anyone made on the settlement of this question?" What do you think? I'd be surprised if anyone successfully gamed it (without using multiple accounts).

Someone wagered H$100 on the community without even knowing what the community was supposed to be predicting! That's pretty cool. It was either one of my friends looking to tease me, or my kid Skipper, who is trying to get family bragging rights, or someone impressed that the community is, in fact, 2 for 2 predicting the outcome of the Formula One Grand Prix. Or, all of the above 8^)

Hey newswrangler,

You must've missed the derivative of the created out of whole cloth derivative here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_this_Question_Correctly_Predict_Whether_the_HD_Community_Will_Successfully_Predict_the_Outcome_of_this_Event_4865/view

At least I manage to include the links in the background some of the time ... 8^)

The background is missing! OMG, I'm soooo embarassed! Here it is:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Formula_1_Who_will_win_the_Bahrain_GP_in_Sakhir_Manama_0642008_2744/view

Admins, please add the link to background info.

newswrangler, thanks for alerting me to the paste-o.

I'd like to have confirmation that the numbers of outcomes speculated on, mean exactly that number and no more. I can see Spitzers emerging at settlement time claiming that they wagered on one outcome occurring, bit three of the outcomes occurred, so that means one of them did!.

I do not think that was the spirit of the question, and think it would be contrary to common sense to settle this question in that manner, so I would like Ryan to state that the the number of outcomes listed in the question means "exactly" the number of outcomes listed in the question occurs.

newswrangler, the question is, "Will the USSC strike down the DC handgun ban?", so it seems to me that anything other than an affirmation of the US Federal Appeals Court (can't recall the district) ruling on D.C. vs. Heller would have to be a No. It does not seem to me that remanding would satisfy "strike down", particularly since the Appeals court already ruled that the 2nd amendment guarantees an individual right to bear arms.

I'm concerned about the possibility that USSC will remand the case back to the appeals court based on the seemingly overwhelming Constitutional case presented by Heller, and the US Justice Depaartment's tacit support of the DC ban. Remanding this case will be USSC's only method of avoiding either affirming that the 2nd is an individual right, or casting a bunch of individual unenumerated rights (roe vs. wade comes immediately to mind, but there are many others) into legal purgatory.

How will this be settled if the case is reamnded back to the appeals court? I'd expect that it would be No, but I'd like to see a clarification either in the comments or settlement details.

The best quote I've heard about this possibility was, "I hope she sues, it would be fun to see someone in a courtroom who's hourly rate is higher than the attorneys".

I invest in these questions when there seems to be enough difference between what the question proposes, and the weather forecasts, that it appears that the odds do not reflect the true probability of the outcome.

Just make sure you're right if you do 8^) I went Yes on both, but I still haven't caught up to you!

I don't think that would work. The money you are about to invest affects the odds, so if you put a lot on No, and then tried to make a killing by betting nearly enough to make it Yes, the odds would reflect the amount you invested in Yes. You would lose money.

What do you mean by major breakdown? A car that cannot complete the race due to a mechanical failure or accident? You should try to be more precise in wording your question, and in the settlement results. There have been lots of questions whose settlement was very contentious because of ambiguity in the question and settlement details.

Don't let the editor decide ... look what happened with the Spitzer questions! If question were more precise, and settlement details were more precise, "Spitzer" wouldn't be a HubNoun (R) defined as "A Hubdub question that cannot be unambiguously and impartially settled".

Numbers kind of guy? I thought InfernalMachine claimed to be a poet elsewhere in the comments 8^)

I'm with meanderingsearcher, since I just put some H$ on No. This looks like it might be close, meanderingsearcher, you might want to post the settlement source(s) in the comments. Otherwise we could have another contentious question like those on Elliot Spitzer's resignation.

TW, Hubdub needs more Truth Wranglers. I'm trying to step up and help 8^)

All predictions made on 3/12 should be voided. In fact HD admins should find out when this was first reported by a mainstream media source and void all predictions made after the fact.

I'm a little concerned that this is an in-play questions. The suspend date is near the end of the time periods listed as choices. I don't believe InfernalMachine intends to game this question, but I think it should suspend by the middle March. Otherwise, users can wait and get in after some of the choices are no longer viable.

I didn't see a way to get any history for Cairo on your site, plus the history for Cambridge Bay seems to be only the past 24 hours. But my point was that weather questions should include the site(s) to be used for settlement since the temperature in Cambridge Bay is unlikely to be reported upon by the mainstream media.

I think they rock! I cleaned up on the last one. MeanderingSearcher you should cite a specific website to use to settle these questions. The rules recommend NOAA, but I'm not sure whether they cover Cambridge Bay, and Cairo! I recommend weatherunderground.com.

@markov,

I concur. A very early, contentious thread. This is what beta is all about!

The settlement details say the temperature difference is 118.7°F, so this _should_ have settled as "No" based on the sources selected for settlement.

@InfernalMachine are you _really_ a poet? In the sense that writing poetry is what you do for a living? If so why aren't all your comments in verse? 8^) Is writing poetry a job, like I show up in my cubicle every day, or is it more freelance, like writing a novel?

Inquiring minds want to know. If you don't respond in these comments in a day or two I might just be tempted to turn this into a question on Hubdub ... "Is InfernalMachine _really_ a professional poet? As reported by HD user InfernalMachine". Just kidding! (about the HD question that is)

It's complicated, but I like it. I'm happy I'm not the only user trying to promote the community's ability to predict events. I'm not sure that futures markets are known to correctly predict multiple simultaneous outcomes in divergent areas, but it _is_ an interesting question.

@donal, it's easy to impose a standard. Just ask Microsoft to include in the next service pack for Vista ;^)

@InfernalMachine, okay I'll accept the blame/credit for HubDerivatives. And thanks for taking it to (yet) another level. It was always about promoting the community's ability to correctly predict events, not personal gain (as evidenced by the fact that my 13 year old son, Skipper, is trouncing me ... I claim he has more time 8^).

Is the question really, "Will McCain ask ...?". I would expect that to be settled as Yes, if McCain was reported as asking either Pawlenty or Sanford to be his running mate, even if they decline.

TruthWrangler, was that your intent in creating this question? I'm not being contentious, just trying to clarify things. I have a whole H$100 invested in Yes, so this is (not so) obviously of (less than) critical concern to me 8^)

I was worried that I'd be blamed for creating HubDerivatives! No chance of that now 8^)

mozrules,

This would be a difficult question to game even with the collusion of another Hubdubber. If you (hypothetically) wanted to game a question by conspiring with another user there would be _much_ easier questions to game than this one. I'm amazed that it's even 2% away from 50-50. Too bad it doesn't suspend for 3 weeks, I could make a killing 8^)

Popular vote? Sorry Ryan, I have to take exception to that. POTUS is elected by the electoral college, not popular vote. If the Hubdub admins are willing to do a district-by-district analysis of how the electoral college vote works out, adding Nader votes to the Democratic candidate, that is okay (don't forget MD has agreed to have all their representatives at the EC vote with the national popular vote). Otherwise, I think this question must be voided.

And likewise, anyone who believes the original Apollo landing were staged isn't going to be convinced otherwise by high-def photos allegedly taken by a Japanese lunar orbiter.

Poor Fisi 8^(

From Renault last season to Force India F1 this year. Quite a drop in terms of available resources.

Rohan,

The issue isn't with predicting this, it is with settling it. It can't be settled until it is is settled, since who settles it is the answer. If it is to be settled by "the first admin who sees it after the suspend date", how do any of the admins know _how_ to settle it?

It depends on the odds, and hence on the predictions themselves. I haven't taken positions on my questions yet, but I'm thinking Yes on both.

Thanks Nigel. My expectations were in-line with your clarification, that this question should settle as Yes if the F1 question's highest percentage accurately reflects the winner of the race.

I'm not sure about betting on No, the odds do favor that outcome, but it does not account for the accuracy of community predictions. If you believe that futures markets are above-average predictors, you should bet Yes.

InfernalMachine challenged me to take it to another level, that questions is here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_this_Question_Correctly_Predict_Whether_the_HD_Community_Will_Successfully_Predict_the_Outcome_of_this_Event_3025/view

This is ridiculous. The answer can't be known until after the question is settled, so how do you settle it? IMO, this question should have been voided since as a self-referential questions it violated the rules. I had no stake in this question so my opinion is not giuded by self-interest.

I recommend checking northwestern NJ media sites. We had 7" here in SW CT, usually NW NJ has more. If you're gaming the system at least work at it!

Mine too .. kids 8^)

Skipper,

You better not! Pull a stunt like that and you might _need_ your old laptop.

An Average American

I've been looking for a good question, with international appeal, lots of possible outcomes, not too much prior community investment and the possibility of predictability (not a question like, "Will the first letter in the NY Times Sunday Headline be a consonant?") to base this question on.

My intent is to promote the community's ability to predict outcomes, but I'm worried that I will be remembered as the Hubdubber who first created HubDerivatives.

This is impossible! It can't settle until it is resolved, and it can't be resolved until it settles. I think the question, "Will this be settled as a No?", was _much_ more clever!

I put a few H$ on this question and then asked for settlement requesting it be voided. The US was first to the moon in 1969 (I remember being allowed to "stay up late" to watch it. Live in black-and-white grainy 1969 TV 8^). Hubdub needs a power-user question vetting process to ensure that questions like this are rejected, and the question creator knows why, so they can submit a well-formed question that can be settled fairly.

I had entered a suspend date of 2/29/2008 at 23:59pm PST, but it isn't showing in the Settlement Details. Can an administrator please add this?

Umm, the Dow isn't going to close on February 18th because it isn't going to _open_! It's President's Day here in the USA. This question _MUST_ be voided.

http://www.nyse.com/about/newsevents/1176373643795.html

I think the settlement details for this question should define what "succeed" means in this context. I invested in this question under the assumption that "succeed" means "hit". Is that the case?

Ahmadinejad is certain to condemn _anything_ the US does. Nice touch to include Iran in the question.

I might have misunderstood this question in the comment above. The Supreme Court agreed to hear Heller vs. DC, does that mean they can bail out after receiving briefs, and tons af amicus briefs, without ruling and send it back to the appelate court?

That would totally suck! (I don't own any guns, but I do think the 2nd Amemdent is an individual right)

Are you trying to game the system? The Supreme Court agreed to hear the case of DC vs. Heller. This is a foregone conclusion.

BlueSeaMiami,

Do you have evidence that the NOAA and WeatherUnderground temperature sensors are the same, or co-located? And what is your basis for considering the WeatherUnderground an unreliable source? Personally I believe that in most cases private enterprises are more honest than the government. NOAA could be under-reporting the temperature in DC to validate it's budget requests.

What if the missile hits the satellite, but some large pieces still make it to earth? How will the question be settled in this circumstance? What if it is hit by the missile and one large piece lands in the water and another hits Australia (like Skylab in 1979), which wager wins? Not to mention that the missile might launch it into a higher, more stable, orbit.

I'm thinking this belongs in the "Circumstances have changed, question gets voided, category"

Is this question about cumulative snowfall for the year, or snowfall in a single storm?

When the settlement details contain a website to use for settlement, that should take precedence over other sites. IMO, rohan asked a well-formed question with clearly defined settlement details.

Flagged. There are several US states on the east coast missing, not to mention states in other countries in the Caribbean and Mexico. Not to mention that there is no, "Other" choice.

Based on the new, proposed, rules it should be ambient temperature. Including wind chill it's already well below zero degrees in DC. I'm hoping the weather (greater than zero Celsius) holds 'til midnight EST, then I'm going to send a settlement request 'cause the suspend time is in PST so everyone in a time zone west of EST could predict a forgone conclusion.