bayoubear

Hello Bayoubear. I had two questions that I was unable to cash-in last night due to the Hubdub service outage. Can I get my wagers voided so I don't have to take over $7000 in losses on two questions I was prevented from cashing-in by the downtime?

These were the two questions:
http://www.hubdub.com/m45254/Will_DOW_open_up_on_June_23rd
http://www.hubdub.com/m45257/Will_NASDAQ_open_up_on_June_23rd

Good job Bayoubear on Big 3 automaker Q, you jumped right on it just now! Thanks. Not so sure I'm betting correctly on Yes but we'll see won't we! This market has now become more interesting after Ginsburg stayed the sale. Interesting constitutional Q re: constitutionality of TARP. I'm hoping the Supremes will overrule TARP because I believe it does violate the constitution by putting treasury power in the executive branch when the Constitution says it should be in Congress's hands, but I'm guessing not. We shall see!

Yeah....research on that site aint boring, lol.

Thanks for wrapping that up!

Here's the Q:http://www.hubdub.com/m32964/Will_the_Sasi_Intelligent_Vibrator_still_be_a_best_seller_on_the_Feminist_Porn_website_in_June_09

And here's the settlement link: http://goodforher.com/shop/home.php?cat=130&sort=orderby&sort_direction=0&page=2

I've posted the settlement link under details as well on the Q's page.

Thanks,
C2R

Open Letter to Management of HUBDUB

I have had a fun time for a while with your website. I really believe you have a very good workable and innovative concept here. The unfortunate thing is that some of the people that function as category editors are killing it. There are some genuinely good ones, Tisha Dejmanee, Jim Pettit and especially Jenni Peterson and John Neblett, to name a few. Unfortunately, there are others that are chronically late with settlement, do not communicate with players and, most infuriatingly, void questions for arbitrary and sometimes bizarre reasons.
For a site that heavily depends on users’ willingness to make it work, it is not smart to piss such people off for no reason. It is very frustrating to spend time creating questions only to have a juvenile who can’t even spell, construct a cogent sentence or understand basic concepts of probability void them (yes, I’m talking about Jacobs). I will give you an example of what I’m talking about. My market asked the high/low/neither question for high temp and set the starting odds at 40% for hitting the high limit of 92 degrees at a time when the forecast called for a high of 90 (2 degrees below). My reasoning was that if the forecast calls for 92 degrees, chances are 50-50 of actually getting there. So, when they call for a high 2 degrees below the high limit of my market, the odds must be somewhere below that 50-50. The CatEd voided my question arguing the odds should have been 60%! I quote his explanation: “The odds when the market was initially put up should have been much closer to 60% for reaching 92, this even though it might not reach 92. This is because 60% odds don't represent anything certain either but are much closer to the probable reality of the situation” (note the elegant turn of phrase) How can the odds of something predicted NOT to happen be greater than 50%??? http://www.hubdub.com/m39743/What_will_the_high_temp_in_Washington_DC_do_next_Will_we_hit_92_degrees_or_60_degrees_F
The last void was also annoying and what makes it worse is that he lies afterwards about having communicated about the issue previously. There is no comment from him on my previous rain related markets, nor can I find an e-mail. He is hurting your business and you need to take decisive action before he ruins it. A site that depends on the goodwill of its users needs to enhance the user experience, not annoy users needlessly. I created 195 markets, some with over H$200,000 wagered, posted 460 comments and earned over a million H$ in under 6 months. You have a limited number of active players, why would you risk losing them? My friend randburg, 3rd on the leaderboard has also reached his limit and is about to go elsewhere. Others before him have done the same. Randburg’s suggestions on how to improve the site and those of others have been ignored. I felt compelled to post this letter because I truly believe that there is great potential for this site to grow and thrive, but only if you listen to the words of your customers, something any successful business knows it must do. The future of hubdub is in your hands.
Respectfully,
Martin, AKA Tuff_sledding

Hey bayoubear. Can we settle the ASX question at GMT +10? I think there's no doubt that's the correct time.

Greetings Bayoubear,

Before I create any additional questions, I was wondering if you had reliable settlement sources for any of the other asia-pacific indexes like the Shanghai Composite (^SSEC), Singapore Straights Times (^STI), Seoul Composite (^KS11), or Taiwan Weighted (^TW11). Thanks again for refereeing ALL of the worlds stock exchanges - it can't be an easy task! :-)

Hello Bayoubear!

It looks like the "Will the DAX open UP on Wednesday April 29th" question was incorrectly settled as NO today.
http://www.hubdub.com/m39906/Will_the_DAX_open_UP_on_Wednesday_April_29

4607.42 DAX Previous close
4617.01 DAX Open on April 29th

DAX OPENED UP 9.59 points
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/dx/dax

bb, you are one of the Administrators I know, so I am turning to you for some help. There seem to be some players that do not appear on the leaderboards. I don't know who to contact to address this problem, but it seems all the markets that deal with leaderboard rankings and numbers are potentially inaccurate when we have these stealth players. I know of one multimillionaire who does not show up (fingers_of_fury). Do you know about this and do you know who may be able to fix it?

Hi Bayoubear,
is there some word order problem in my business questions?
I have a preference for "up" and "down".
Thanks

Hi bayoubear...

Hate to be a bother, but I think the %'age change on the DAX for April 16, 2009 was closed with the wrong winning selection. It actually closed up 1.31% not less than 1%. Can you re-close this one with the correct winning bet?

Thanks.

C'mon, bb, bet some HDbucks on all those awesome questions you're creating. I am counting on you to get to Oracle by May 15th, but you're not playing.....
You're not gonna get there at this pace, but I know if you get serious you can get there with ease! GO BB!!!!

Thank you for the tip. I will work on this and let you know my results. I'm very busy right now, but I should have it done within the next month or so. What I really would like to know is how far in advance does the market begin to make "accurate" predictions. At least for the stock market questions, from the graphs, it appears that the market isn't very good until near the end. Kind of like horse race betting.

Maybe I should start taking %'age snapshots hourly, to see how the market changes.

Thank you.

Paul

Thanks John!
Regards

Hi bayoubear. Thanks for accepting my invite. I noticed that you create many of the stock market questions. Do you keep any statistics on these markets? I'm doing research into how prediction markets perform. If you have any historical data on your markets, might I be able to gain access to it? I would really appreciate anything you might have that would help me to analyze these markets.

Thank you.

Thanks for fixing the gas market for me! I'll try to keep my ADD under control from now on, lol.

Thanks bayou!,
you are a great sport, let me know if i can return the favor,
ken

hi bayoubear.

Glad I can send you a message now... I sent the below two to tisha to try and correct the faux pas I made. Happy to pass these questions on to you.
Hope u doing well. Sorry for "meeting you" in this way. I dont usually predict on the matters you oversee.
best of luck, ken

Hi tisha,

I would like to ask for your help in the following mixup..

I think I made a couple of boo boos.. I just put two questions out about this season's hurricanes and tropical storm frequencies, but i know there were some last year.
I realize that this is likely a faux pas in protocol, as it is up to that person to put out these questions.. (but i just thought , WOW, it is april and the season starts in June),,, so i devised these two questions.. Can you contact whoever is "in charge" of these questions, and offer him/her mine, and/or just cancel mine?

thx, ken

Oops, another favor,
I can't shout to bayoobear, because he isnt a friend of mine, so can you tell him I would be happy, if he would like to reinstate his question (dealing with hurricanes and tropical storms in the atlantic), and sorry for stepping on his toes.. (of course, if he doesn't care, fine to leave as is.. HIS choice.. No biggy for me , either way)..
sorry for giving you extra work..
thx, ken

Hey bayoubear!

Can you please fix this question for me...http://www.hubdub.com/m37866/Gas_up_or_down__Which_comes_first_for_regular_gas__200_or_220

the last option should read "gas does neither before may 3rd"

Thanks!

Thanks Bayoubear!

Wanted to ask about Nikkei question on March 31st. My account shows the question as 'voided' can you please tell when my account would be updated.. Thanks.

No problem...you make a good point. It is hard to tell when it's been done, unless I do like I did today and take note of the balances before and after the adjustments have been made. There probably should be some more 'official' way to make such adjustments and notify the players.

Thanks again!!!

Thanks Bayoubear!
Sorry for the mistrust.

Thanks for the reply. Is it actually clear that he has resigned for sure, or even offered a resignation...? It doesn't make much sense that he refused one day and agreed the next...

On the German rail question, Kruijs has been buying Yes on hubdub "like crazy" for the last 24 hours, and I have looked everywhere and couldn't figure out why. Considering that the CEO refused to resign the day before, I am startled that the next day we now have some kind of offer of resignation?? Somehow, that doesn't sound right...I hope this question will be carefully checked out before settlement. At the moment, it sounds questionable, to say the least...

Heya Bayou... Why is the Dow Jones close market for today :

http://www.hubdub.com/m36778/Where_will_the_DJIA_close_on_Wednesday_March_25_2009
suspended?

It's still Wed. morning?

Hi Bayou,
Are you going to do, "Where will the Dow Jones open Monday"?
Thanks,
Steve

Thank you for fixing my market!

What time does the DJIA inplay open for the next days bidding..I keep missing out and all of the good early positions are taken ...
Thank you in advance
Ejayz

GM Bayou,
choice 3, "DJIA opens between 8,075.56 and 8,075.55"
should be DJIA opens between 8,075.56 and 8,077.55

Thanks. I think the problem is that Marketwatch didn't have a good mechanism to deal with the close due to the holiday. I'm not saying you should take anyone's winnings away, but for those with other positions, it would be great if the question was reopened.

Bayou,
The oil question was erroneously settled prematurely. Nymex trading in crude was closed yesterday, and the quote you saw on marketwatch wasn't an official closing price. It was from the overnight session. This session isn't used for official closing prices, and this is why today, you see the previous close was 36.51.
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=3343724
Shouldn't this question be reopened?

Sorry about the problems on the oil rig, must have created it too fast. Thanks for catching the problems!

Hi Bayou,
Though it says you unsuspected the oil question, it's still suspended.

I don't know the official settlement, but Oil closed about 36.50, nowhere near 35.

Hi,
Is the oil question based on closing price, or intraday?
Thanks
Steve
http://www.hubdub.com/m27239/_Oil_up_or_down_Which_comes_first_by_January_31st__55_oil_or_35_oil

Hey bayoubear! Thanks for accepting my friend request. Looking forward to placing more predictions in the Business category. AlanD

I think this needs to be suspended, since the Texans beat the Titans last week in Houston, unless I'm missing something.

http://www.hubdub.com/m23543/NFLWill_the_Tennessee_Titans_remains_undefeated_on_the_road_during_the_regular_season

Never mind, I see you settled it.

Bayou,
RE: oil. According to my charts, the Globex oil contract first ticked below 40 @ 11:28:20 PST.

Hi John,
Is it possible to create an online device that shows the Dow changing like at CNN Money ?
In the Business Categorie ?

Cheers

Hi John,

The widgets I gave you for the inplay markets don't seem to be auto-updating, Do you know of any consistently auto-updated markets we could use?

Ryan

Thought so...let me check...don't mean to ruffle any feathers

Hi John,

I agree for the most with you about the lottery issue.
Did you tell this to buckeyetorn too ?

Cheers

Hi bayou,

Why did you reject the Dow Cents Change Lottery from buckeyetorn ? And why in that strange way ?
I think its a good and funny question !

Regards

Hey John,

Talked with Nigel about a change I've put in for the DJIA Inplay markets. From now on could we have this widget code embedded (It's a live DOW widget)

<!--DO NOT EDIT BELOW!- WIDGETS: http://www.sanebull.com/widgets -->
<div align="center" width="210px" style="font-size:12px"><iframe width="210" height="410" style="margin-bottom:5px" src="http://www.sanebull.com/widget_world_watch.jsp?market=all" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<a href="http://www.sanebull.com/live-news" target="_top">Stocks News</a> <a href="http://www.sanebull.com/m">Stock Info</a></div>
<!--DO NOT EDIT ABOVE!-->

Cheers,
Ryan

When will this question be unsuspended?
http://www.hubdub.com/m23331/Will_the_Dow_Stay_over_7000_in_2008

Hi Bear
I've put relevant starting prices for gold v dow v oil, 3 horse race. Does this look ok now?
Pete

Hi Bear
On gold v dow v oil 3 horse race question: I just plain forgot to put in the starting points (to much of a good time in the sixties). Could we use the prices as they stand now ie DJIA 8458.76, oil $51.18, gold $814.30. Sorry to be a pain. In future when creating questions I will save it and recheck it after some thought rather than just rushing into print.

Also, I never had any reference to Christmas when I wrote the question & insist that you remove it.

WTF is wrong with you?? I intentionally submitted the question and it was approved. You can't go back and change now and tie up H$ after positions are established. Well, obviously you can, and that's what sucks about Hubdub, the "all powerful" and arbitrary administrators, and this whole system. I'm only sorry I wasted my time here.

HI Bayou, I just submitted this question and wanted to make sure it's ok before there is any action on it. Thanks.

Sorry,
but Futse 100 has opened down with 13.4
Prev. Close:4,232.97
Today Open :4,219.57
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/?sid=123797
http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=gb!ftse

Could you resettle this.

Re: Porsche Q: I'm an IDIOT! I misread the Q while submitting my settlement request. The Q asks, by how much is turnover (i.e. sales) higher than profit (which was further defined as net profit by the market maker). I had calculated percent increase in sales, which is not what the Q asked. I understood the Q when I bet on it, but forgot when I submitted my settlement request.

This source http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g5Wle3rsgGX96oVuPecMPU0k949gD94A7QB00
reports that net profit was 6.4 billion Euros, while sales were 7.5 billion Euros. Therefore, should settle as Profit Is Not Higher Than Turnover.

My bets lose either way-- was just trying to be helpful the first time, and blew it, sorry. BTW the actual net profit reported above, is very considerably less than the preliminary estimate by Der Spiegel so one wonders what kind of adjustments were made by the accountants prior to finalizing the numbers.

Hi bayoubear,
can you look at the question about Nikkei, which today has closed at 9,521.24

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225
and has to be settled.
I made it request for settlement, but no answer for several houres.
Thanks

Hi bayoubear, I was wondering the process for settling a question. I don't understand why the fed funds rate, which is officially announced around 11:15 Pacific time, and immediately disseminated in the media, isn't settled.
http://www.hubdub.com/m16779/What_will_the_US_Federal_Reserve_do_with_the_fed_funds_rate_on_102908
Thanks,
Steve

Bayou Bear, what the hell happened man, like a month ago we were neck and neck and now you have 3x as much H$ as i have! I am gonna give you my password and you can play my account for me, okay?

Sorry bayoubear,
but I do not make bussines questions for one player.
Let someone else do it.

In addition - I'm very disappointed in your yestarday's decision for FTSE closing.

what happened to the other indices ?

they open at 9.55 their time not yours so set it at 8;55 there time (not yours) and close at 4.30 their time so so close at 3;30 this is the time from the site

put time in India and work at from there bse opens at 9.55 am and closes at 4.30 pm

where have the new indices gone you made a promise to give it a two week trial

i notice that orlin has done a new ftse which in its self is OK but as said before the ftse opens on its last close i have already put 1000 on no which will/or may be correct

any it does not matter it will make it a level playing field, we are in this world. as a side line i lost a fortune in 97 crash

when are we going to get other indices back we are battling down under to advance

Don't mind a bit re the adjustment to suspension date on the airline water market, go for it!

Thanks, that means a lot. Did you register w/ gmail already? I hadn't used THAT function previously.

Hey bayoubear,

I was surprised to see that I hadn't already invited you to my list of friends, thought I'd done that a long time ago. Anyway, you should know that when I'm trying to come up with increasingly tough goals for myself on HD, your prolific question creation is a benchmark I often measure myself against, you set a high bar!

Congrats on your "A" and thanks for the plethora of questions you create!

Hi bayoubear and congrats on the addition of the "A"!
GOOD for you!

Don't hesitate to ask. Our super user forum was incredibly helpful and you will find amazing help from all the other category editors and admins. I have posted all my contact info, please don't hesitate to contact me.

Hey there. Congrats.

Thanks! I won my first prediction on where Dolly would make landfall, but then I had to shutdown the computer because we started getting weather and power outages. Thanks again for the great visit!!!

Ray

Hey Friend! I thank you for including me on your challenges. I don't do sports or the Dow, but enjoy all of the rest of your questions! Many Thanks.

Is the July 7 in "What will be the weekly retail gas price released by the EIA on July 7, 2008?" correct or am I missing something?

I lived in Biloxi until Katrina. Had the screen name and just never gave it up. I'm in Nashville now. Took almost two years to get the house fixed so I just sold it.

You are the leader in DJIA questions. Why not ask where the DJ will close on Monday, June 30th. Suspend it at noon on Friday. Just a suggestion. It will weed out the "glass half-full" and "glass half-empty" players.

Thanks,
Tom

Your question Will Alabama man be tried and/or convicted for wife's death in Australia in 2008? is excellent. Been doing some research and there are way to many variables at the moment to make a prediction. Researching the Coroners report as well as the other evidence provided so far seems to leave the case very shaky as to whether or not an extradition is even possible. As soon as some of my other predictions are settled I will make a prediction on this one. Great job on this story!

I can tell you that your question about Big Brown is not going to settle. It has led to discussion regarding consistency. I can assure you settlement is not going to happen at this point.

Hey there. Great job on the creative markets. Can you do me a favor, I want to include some of your markets in our in play system. If you could create markets for game 5 and email me the link that would be excellent (destry71@gmail.com). If you could format the questions so they are similar to the other nba in play questions that would be great. "NBA Finals Game 5 (6/15) - then the question." That makes it much easier on me when monitoring questions, also if you could include some that suspend at end of first quarter, half, third quarter, and end of game. It is easier to suspend a handful of questions after each period than 20 markets at end of game.
Thanks... Destry

i'm de-friending all people. no offense to you or the other people. this site is gettin to be a joke. the admins rip people off and theres no recourse. some of the super users are just as bad. they suspend when its in their or their friends interest...don't suspend the same way. i find myself gettin all fired up over a silly site that has H$...lol i'll still goof off on the site, just not gonna be around as often. you make some good questions, keep up the good work. goodluck with your betting.

didn't get on in time to bet on your nba question. sorry.

i try to not bet on death questions either. just a personal choice. hope you understand.

i suck at predicting the dow. doubt i'll bet on it much in the future. hope you understand.

i suck at predicting the dow. doubt i'll bet on it much in the future. hope you understand.

didn't get on in time to bet on your nba lottery question. sorry.

Visit my blog at http://rohanm33.wordpress.com/

Rohan

I'm just getting ready to leave....yep, this is accessible here...making a stop on the way home for the usual...shouldn't be too long

I sure did. I guess this site is "accessible" where you are?

Oh Lord I did...........blew it all the way across the board...

take a big hit on the NCAAB?