bgrigore
Net worth: H$256,066
Predictions made: 2942
from Romania. Member since Fri 18th Apr
Comments
bgrigore left these comments.
1-5 points or England wins? no odds will need to change
Thanks all, I hope I got it now properly, http://www.nber.org/cycles/jan08bcdc_memo.html.
As I understand the question, it will be settled as yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research officially recognize that America is in recession until the suspension date of March 19th, 2009.
As I understand the question, it will be settled as yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research officially recognize that America is in recession until the suspension date of March 19th, 2009.
GDP down 0.3% in third quarter, http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm.
That is recession, if not you should otherwise "fall into recession" define.
That is recession, if not you should otherwise "fall into recession" define.
In my previous comment, first paragraph, last word, instead of "evaluated" it's "overevaluated". Sorry I could't correct it otherwise.
If you bet on unlikely but possible events, like I do, the best odds you get are near suspension time because this is the time most people bet and place their settlement bet and not a market bet. This is the time the favorite usually gets highly evaluated.
I try to get to the primary sources of information, instead of news, this gives you a chance to better odds and better exit if necessary.
I always keep almost half of my money in cash, to be prepared if I find good opportunities, also this gives me a sentiment of confidence.
I look on what questions other people are betting: last three questions on the home page, friends bets on your dashboard, this way you can save time on finding good questions. Also many questions are part of a family of questions (like questions about a movie, or a series of sport event, or a business market), maybe you don't like that particular question but this leads you to its family of questions. Most families of questions have similar or same suspension date so you will find them all by looking through questions closing soon.
I try to get to the primary sources of information, instead of news, this gives you a chance to better odds and better exit if necessary.
I always keep almost half of my money in cash, to be prepared if I find good opportunities, also this gives me a sentiment of confidence.
I look on what questions other people are betting: last three questions on the home page, friends bets on your dashboard, this way you can save time on finding good questions. Also many questions are part of a family of questions (like questions about a movie, or a series of sport event, or a business market), maybe you don't like that particular question but this leads you to its family of questions. Most families of questions have similar or same suspension date so you will find them all by looking through questions closing soon.
Before placing a bet I look not only to odds in a question but also read information and news on it, look on other people bets and who placed them, evaluate the "not public bets", also look to market's evolution (graph) over time and read comments.
If I like a question but don't like the odds for the option I want to make I just mark the question with a small bet (preferably on options with less than 10% or even 1% odds if possible), keeping the question on my predictions board and monitoring it until I feel my option gets enough better odds. That saves time because good questions are not usually easy to find. And I look more on questions that I like and already know something about, the evolution of odds over time for the question.
Shouldn't the two Obama wins alternatives and the two McCain wins alternatives start from the same odds? My proposal is 45 each for Obama and 5 each for McCain.
The current data for California hispanic population reported by US Census Bureau is 35.9% for 2006, data estimates added probably in January 2008, the next reports will probably be in January 2009 for 2007.
I don't understand if the question refers to data that will be reported next year or to data for 2009 that will be probably reported in January 2011.
I don't understand if the question refers to data that will be reported next year or to data for 2009 that will be probably reported in January 2011.
Yes, it's open.
"Stock Markets Open On Columbus Day
Government offices, the bond markets and many businesses will be closed Monday for Columbus Day, but the stock markets and other exchanges will be open. Bond trading won’t take place."
"Stock Markets Open On Columbus Day
Government offices, the bond markets and many businesses will be closed Monday for Columbus Day, but the stock markets and other exchanges will be open. Bond trading won’t take place."
@mork: ref suspension of market: There is another market "On which day will the DJIA close higher than it opened?" where Monday 13th is present as open for trading.
chris, you are right http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602098&sid=aiz5QIq94nrw&refer=world_currencies
kruijs, the settlement source is fine, I am not sure what could be the source of information as regards the exchange rates of Iceland Krona these days. The 96.31 rate was an error on the site but is now corrected.
anyway I am happy that on hubdub it's only play money http://www.openmarket.org/2008/10/07/everbank-can-multiply-your-financial-woes/
kruijs, the settlement source is fine, I am not sure what could be the source of information as regards the exchange rates of Iceland Krona these days. The 96.31 rate was an error on the site but is now corrected.
anyway I am happy that on hubdub it's only play money http://www.openmarket.org/2008/10/07/everbank-can-multiply-your-financial-woes/
the rates for Iceland Krona provided by exchange-rates.org are somehow misleading, I checked the rate for Wednesday, Oct. 8th, - which were missing in the links provided above -, when I placed my first bets a few hours ago it was 127.58, and now is 96.31, on the same page, here http://www.exchange-rates.org/currentRates/E/USD ...????
hope the rates reported by the exchange-rates.org site will be consistent with those reported by Central Bank of Iceland, as per here http://www.sedlabanki.is/?PageID=183
hope the rates reported by the exchange-rates.org site will be consistent with those reported by Central Bank of Iceland, as per here http://www.sedlabanki.is/?PageID=183




