bigken1

Since the top number is 25, but some of the numbered items relate to more than 1 person, assume each number accounts for 1 unit in answer?

I agree with diesel. How do we clean up this stuff?

Great question Jenni

If W writes a book, I think he should name it something like "bush league", or
"It's good to be king"

i think the spider will be dessicated by now.

Isn't there a rule about not ending sentences in prepositions, or some such thing like?

I do not think it will go as shown in the picture , does this count as a no?

Hey everyone, as valor said, "why so serious"?

Here is a reference to carnac's thought processes...

http://www.poppyfields.net/poppy/songs/oldwoman.html

(sorry to give your magic trick away)

I think if bush did not authorize any particular crime, then he should just pardon them anyway, for all the crimes. Simply because he failed
to authorize a particular crime should not count against his staff, for an oversight on Bush's part.
Pardon my ignoration too, and all my other such stuff, whatever.

These are good points jbreed and bayoubear. I will ask that it be voided..
ken

Great question, paul, but (and sorry about this), how is cease officially defined? If you smoke every day, but then
say stop on day 100, did you cease on day 99, or on day 100? Because one might say you ceased on day 99, and didn't do it after that. Do you have a definition for this? thx, ken

It is my understanding that a cabinet position, really just means someone who officially attends the Cabinet meetings. So, although traditionally, such people oversee departments, such a person does not necessarily have to do so. It could be that they are dealing with a current crisis (like an "auto czar", or "chief of urban policy", or "environmental/climate change czar", etc..)

Sure, turkey must travel around a lot on thanksgiving, like Santa Claus at Christmas. :)

(don't really mean it, just a joke)

There was a line I remember from somewhere (anyone know where?) "they must be guilty or they wouldn't be here"
(supporting why someone was in jail or being tried, etc.)...

Nice question capecod!!
there might be some clarification required for how settled. Because, the ones that were "ordered released" so far HAVE NOT been released. So, do the people have to be released, or just "ordered released". (the releases are being considered again, by the bush admin, to see if they can be reversed)... The wheels of justice grind very very slowly. It is like a Kafka story!! Please let me know how you decide.

The problem I had with her was one simple thing. It was that used her position to do an end run around the judicial process to serve her own self-interest. I call this out and out corruption of the highest order.

What kind of VP or P would such a person make? Who is she working for? Not us, i think ,but herself.
I don't mind that she is egocentric. I do not think anyone who gets as high as she would not be. I don't mind that she probably has 1% as much knowledge as me; she can probably run circles around me in false accusations and innuendos, etc.. but I do not want to vote for anyone who is so totally, and obviously corrupt.

Simple..

From the movement towards the 0-1 values, I think it is clear to a lot of people. Thanks for remarks raider.

It was my intention (and I tried to change the question wording) to indicate that the new positions be created by inauguration day (or be decided by then). Hope this is clear, or can be accommodated.

I personally do not think they will travel overseas, mainly because of their lack of popularity, and that such travel would likely be extremely unpleasant for them. So, I think the initial odds are fine. On the other hand, I do see the probabilities going up, but I think they will go down, when the new year starts, and we do not see any travel occurring.

HI dragon et al.

Well, I was trying to create a question that could be answered based upon actions (whether certain people traveled abroad) in the future as freely as they did in the past. The wording that eventuated, I agree was not the best, but I haven't heard about changing it, and now many people have bet on question, so I do not know about that.

Dragon- we cannot ask whether some of them would travel more or less frequently if they were not surrounded by secret service - this is a hypothetical question, and we have heard about how our leaders shy away from these, so let us shy away from these on this site too, as they are untestable.

I agree with your comment that it is Congress' responsibility to declare war (or even act some way), when the President does not have a war authorization, but this is an endemic state with congress (the failure to live up to its responsibilities) - whether Democrats or Republicans.. so, it is a non-partisan issue...

Well, thank you all for your insights.

Sorry for the inflammatory wording. Much of the wording was taken from another question (which I stated at the end - but I had word # troubles in the writeup (it kept rejecting my input), so I said "taken from another ?").

If I had realized it would offend a number of people, I would have reworded it. If it can be done ex post facto, perhaps you can suggest a wording that would be better.

Wow. I thought it was going to happen.. Misread, I guess, what u were saying.. It seemed very severe -- draconian. with regard to the major setbacks...
I would not have suggested anything as major as having only a range of a few k to 20 k.. well anyway.. so, no proposals are actively being considered then?

Maybe when it wakes up, it will be in Kansas.

No problem jakethesnake with your comments.. I just wanted to clarify my suggestion.
I am not in favor of the quantization method that jenni says is being applied, as i thought her methodology suggests.
It seems to me there should always be some benefit to being ahead.. Just not as large as it seems to be..

Sounds great!! Can you also make it, so a person only gets ONE vote?
To prevent stuffing the ballot boxes...

Actually, let's get real. If a person runs for the presidency position, he is so totally devoted to his career, that
the welfare of the kids is not the highest thing on his list. I have the greatest respect for Obama, but methinks he does seem to be putting his ambition and his country ahead of his kids..

Great pixel! I think many of the turkeys pardoned might be his own people (Scott Libby, etc.)..

How come W is not on this list?

how does this settle if , for example the last two options are both met?

Great Question... valor.. better one might be, will he win any state (like those, or how many)?

When will 1 + 1 = 2 be debunked? When the level of education is low enough for people not to believe in the well-founded. If one looks at the level of education, the % believing in global climate change, global warming, or the Greenhouse effect varies directly with this factor. What do you have in mind? Everyone must agree? Or democracy?

Aliens fly them away, and turn them into UFOs and the take John McCain with them.. (how come this is not one of the choices...)..It is possible isn't it?

Nice question valor..
Clearly there are some questions about details. I put in a vote for the negative, just because of the odds..., but perhaps the west coast already settles the deal...Then i just threw my $ away.. I do that on long shots every once in a while..

Nice question deelilley.... I hate to bet on this.. , as I am so disappointed by his actions. I think he could well sink to a new low, below anything i might even imagine...

great question though!!!!

pixel, assume previous storms not included in the tally..

Well, I am trying to count all the people who will be voting for McCain, and I only get to five.

I said early on that I put my $ with no endorsement, as that is what I hoped for, but I thought he would come out for McCain...
Too bad, I didnt rely on my brain...

This will happen when anti gravity is developed. Why must we wait till 2018 for this to be developed?
We could use it now..

Wow val, are you Mccain, and are here when you're not campaigning? or are u palin? please post pic, so we can tell.

By the way, Congress has abdicated its role about declaring war, so this is the ceremonial side of our govt system, not the presidency. The executative side, the presidency, has become more like a totalitarian regime, since the congress has abdicated its role... ONe cannot simply blame the republicans either, since the democrats have also given W a free ride for the last 2 years.

I do agree that we do not know what O will do, but it is better than the alternative of knowing what Bush III will do -- business as usual. So, any chance is better than no chance.

thanks jenni, I looked them up..
I tried to write a note on the first one, but it needed another account.. so i couldn't .. here is what i tried to put in..

I put forth a question about all this on the forums, and was directed here by jenni.
Glad to see this is being addressed. I am not sure it solves all the problems, but glad it is being addressed....Is the current system it? It seems pretty good, but still a huge gap between rich and poor, which was the subject of my question....

Jenni directed me here...
Glad you all are looking into this and improving the site.. It works great... .. Just know that there is a large gap between rich and poor, and large moneyed people can greatly affect markets... which affects things....

I know in bridge/chess, they judge people's abilities, and one doesn't accumulate wealth.. so maybe these kinds of systems could serve as a guide to one's abilities, as opposed to a capital based system. Just a thought for an alternative.

Hi all,
I have not looked at your sites jenni yet. But since people are taking my wishes (to the extreme, by saying make everyone's H$ =, which of course I DID NOT suggest), let me make it the extreme in the opposite way.

Let's take everyone's H$ and give it all to the richest person, so everyone else has 0. Clearly these extremes both lessen the value of H$, so that H$ lose their inherent value.. What is the ideal distribution of H$? We CAN ALL AGREE that all = and all distributed to only one member of society are not the best. But what is the preferred distribution and how do we achieve it?

This is an interesting question that I am sure dragon will use his superior brain to figure out.

I think that settles the question as other. :)

I am not sure what car it was, but I saw one going that fast on the Beltway the other day. :)

Have had + and - feelings about her. But the way she has wholeheartedly supported Obama, shows a dedication to someone else, that she seemed to lack before. So, I am now pro-Hillary.

I do not know what position she would be the best qualified for in an Obama cabinet though (working on health care would be great, but there is no position, that would qualify for , in that regard). Perhaps she could be attorney general.... Any comments on what position she would/might hold?

hi pixelpaws,
you do not need math to answer. It is multiple choice, just throw a dart at your
computer screen, and whichever one it hits.. that is the one you choose.
NO Math
ken

Does the first one decide the location? (suppose there are more than 1, must we wait till end of year to decide how it is settled?)..

If one occurs on the satellite Io, does this count as somewhere else, and take precedence?

Great question Nadine..

maybe we ought to have a forum section dealing with people who are really out of sorts with some question settlement, etc..or just the state of the world, their life, etc.. I know drago, you will call me a tree hugger.. I just do not like to see sensitive people hurt..

Hey dragon, send me the 10 bucks, and u can have my vote.

Hey dragon,
Can I let go of the tree I have been hugging?

Nice topic, and comments. Let me give mine.

These kinds of issues were studied early last century by mathematicians (e.g. Bertrand Russell, etc.) dealing with the philosophy of language in his Principia. He found that there are mega type statements, which can lie outside the truth of the set of statements one is studying, or some such category about the system, but you cant include that statement in the set. One cannot apply the same logic to the mega statement, as one does to the set.... So, this can result in apparent paradoxes.... (they all tend to be of this class)..

Hope this helps......

Hey dragon,
Rather than blame Obama and Mccain for their different estimates on health care ins. costs, why not figure it out yourself, and see what you get?
Send your results to a newspaper (letters to editor)....

Right kasulked, So, Bush bought last couple. Now it's dems turn to buy one....O learned from W. M should have learned from Dukakis not to be so honest..

Hey dragon,
Good one.. Got me there.
I just think that the markets are way skewed by the overly rich, who can throw money at markets too readily...
Anyway, just my thoughts...I will go back to tree hugging if no one else feels this way, or even if the majority feels as you do.
ken

Naturally, I hate the negative ads too. On the other hand, I find some of the first use of such ads were a LOT meaner than these have been.
They had the Willie Horton ad which made Dukakis look like he was responsible for letting out a convicted felon. Also the early ads, showed nuclear bombs, trying to lead one to think that voting for the opposing candidate would start WW III.

Even though the present ones have not been great, they are relatively mild compared with the early usage of these ads. What I do not like even more are the ads by political action groups, so the candidates appear to be not responsible (like the Swift boat ads they ran against Kerry). We all know Bush could have put a stop to it in a second, but somehow did not have to answer to those ads.....I think this is something that could be changed, somehow... At least many ads have their innocuous saying "I'm X and I approve this message". I wish they had to use their voice for the entire ad, so it was all in their words, as opposed to the sickly voice of the anonymous announcer dishing dirt.

Hi Folks,
Here is some other info about "joe the plumber" from the AP. By the way, I think also worked for Nixon, doing "plumbing" in the watergate complex.....

'Joe the Plumber' says he has no plumbing license
AP Photo
HOLLAND, Ohio (AP) - Joe the Plumber said Thursday he doesn't have a license and doesn't need one. Joe Wurzelbacher, better known as Joe the Plumber, the nickname Republican John McCain bestowed on him during Wednesday's presidential debate, said he works for a small plumbing company that does residential work. Because he works for someone else, he doesn't need a license, he said. But the county Wurzelbacher and his employer live in, Lucas County, requires plumbers to have licenses. Neither Wurzelbacher nor his employer are licensed there, said Cheryl Schimming of Lucas County Building Regulations, which handles plumber licenses in parts of the county outside Toledo.

Nice question Nigel. Nice site jenni. I am voting for no endorsement, as that is what I hope for. Every once in awhile, my true idealistic nature leaks out. I usually lose $H.
I really think he will annonce for McCain..

Some of this seems to be in error. Jenni: you say: "The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of Hubdub, they are not official comments. " yet Destry says the same thing, so clearly this view is NOT solely yours, since you share the same view as destry.. What is up with that? :)

Thank you both for clarifying your feelings. I agree with a lot of the observations. ON THE OTHER HAND, I really feel that to use someone's personal appearance against them is not fair... Like the way the press used to draw Nixon (who I am no fan of, although he opened up our dialogue with China), with a 5 oclock shadow, etc. to make him look seedy. This is simply unfair. I think McCain got the one chipmunk cheek from some medical condition, and if he is not so vain as to have it corrected , that is a good thing..(i think).

I also think that McCain not choosing Romney shows an interest in being a "maverick", rather than the tried and true. But that is also some of his "erratic" behavior that Obama discusses..I think Obama is right about that. I do not think you go through years in prison, etc. without being scarred.
McCain seems to me, to be vindictive, in terms of his tremendous annoyance at Obama, because of his not holding town hall meetings, etc..

Yes, this is NOW unclear :( They have added the new info to get better statistics on the likely voters (expanded), as things are now different .. (and the question is the same) :( .

If I gather some parts, made from Alien material, like a meteorite, and make them into a space ship, would it classify as an Alien space ship? (i am not an Alien)...

Hey guido,

i was first to comment and said: "Let's all bid yes on this, so when it happens we can say we told you so. " So, I may have helped your insightful efforts a little, sadly, I guess.
good "luck" in this..

I think it will hit the atmosphere before it hits the car, the road, etc. etc.
Then again, it will hit the Earth's magnetic field before it hits the atmosphere, etc.

I do not understand on what basis (in the question) this last ruling is made. The question says nothing about this debate "not counting" towards the settlement. It is good to get an understanding, one way or another IN THE STATED QUESTION, but how can these rulings be made after the fact -- after people have already bet on the question....

Hi chris,

Well, if you need any help with the mathematical side of things, I am a physicist, so am pretty good at mathematical aspects. I had not realized that
"shorting" is the same thing as what I called a NOT operation -- betting on the negative of an event.

Well, all the details would be left up to Hubdub. But those could be similarly included in this separate section.

I was thinking of more common questions on Hubdub dealing with death. Like
when will the next large number of people die in a train wreck, or similar questions...

I agree! Of course you do, you are me.. Oh yeah, I forgot. Well please do not do this again. OK :(.

ps.. all the polls work by taking specific people.. hopefully they choose more independent people than all in
the same household... this is the important aspect... getting a good sample...

hi dragon...
what is ralph naders middle name, as you say.
so his name is ralph what nader. :)

Great question. You ought to be helping businesses engage in these kind of barter systems... etc..
Or even better, the business could shut down the intersection, so the only way to "go thru" would be to go through the drive thru lane, after buying a hamburger.... Or the business could simply put up a toll gate...like they do on the NJturnpike..

great question onedave... pretty neat!!

I also had some of the experiences of others about the difficulty in creating questions -- how much time it took, etc. then finding fault with it, etc.. etc..
I also see some of the (to me obvious) problems with a questions responses (not being totally inclusive about all the possible outcomes).

Also, I find the space in the description of question responses insufficient to completely describe the answers like sometimes people say 0-9 , 10-19, etc
when they really want to have it be 0-9.5, 9.5 to 19.5, etc.. but it takes up too much space...so it looks incomplete... hope this is clear...
anywa.y, i have done a couple, but i also think there are too many questions... (and i think it would be better to have a smaller number of GREAT questions than too many unclear questions!!)

Great question gtown.. I am none of these. can i turn myself in and gain H$ for none of these captured?

hi constable,
Nicely worded question..... Hope u write others. I enjoyed reading your writing style.
ken

Nice question... Too bad it does take a long time for these things to happen...Good luck with it.
I am betting no, but I hope I am wrong.

There are two Houses of Congress. For the bill to "pass" enacted into law, it must pass both houses. If this is not right, can it be clarified?

Not sure exactly what dieseldog had in mind, but I assume that the results are compared with the election popular vote! ... Isn't that right?

How does it settle if the most accurate is X, but Y and Z have the same results but are not the most accurate?
Not clear .. I think your intention is that X wins.. can you clarify?

Anyone understand why the different polls are so different?
are they biased? or use different areas of the country?
thx, ken

tisha, you have a wonderful attitude... It is great to have such a + person at HD...
ken

hi dragonfangxl,
It is not on each page within the forum. just on the top page of the forum topic... (the main page)..
hope this clarifies..
ken

Hi , i feel special.

yayyay
twice as much fun

WOW, I am surprised that my word is taken so forcefully. No people who really know me respect my word so much. I said "that's it", and no one has said another word... hmmm. I am going to have to try this at home..

There is no James Bond in the screenplay. It is a movie. The role is played by an actor. So, even the actor says the line, James Bond is not saying it.. There are real life james bonds, but they are not in the movie. The question does not make this clear. I hope this helps.....

Maybe this is why so many are saying no..I agree.

Fine markc. I agree. I found the stated % confusing, where it says things like .4 to .49, then .5 to .59 etc . This
is done to save space, but it appears to leave a gap.

Thank you tisha. I, for one, have stopped betting on these type questions.. I wonder if Hubdub could have some kind of special category, for those of us who do not want to bet on these type questions, do not have to see them. right now, they are located everywhere, (politics, general, etc..etc....) . maybe some category, like death related..or something like that, so they would be out of all the other categories..

maybe julieliu is sarah palin, or her daughter...., and they know the answer...

good idea rogerkni, me too... :)
I lost lots of H$ recently by missing bets by a hair margin.

I think i saw it on prison break.

Will this be settled as YES , if a puppy is born to a LAB (laboratory retreiver)? :)

Predicting yes on principle. If i used my brain, i would say no.

thank you.. seems reasonable.. (just was not sure)...

How is this settled, if some statement like " my opponents, john mccain and sarah palin...are following in the footsteps of the bush admin"...(where the two are lumped together)?

good question dieseld .. I guess if they find no traces of any disease ..... but i do not know technical term...

I haven't followed it either, but I think that there is nothing wrong with using one's personal acct for govt business, just the other way around, presumably.
Nice one jenniand boys on the anonmymous...
I would think that if the people were downloading her emails, there would be some kind of trail one could follow...

NICE comments smidge.... I agree totally...


btw a friend of mine once sent me an email which appeared to be coming from the white house... but i heard there are ways to find the real address.... so despite anonymizers or whatever, i would think all that stuff can be disentangled.... , but i know little with regard to the details...

ahh dragon, Well, then the ice must be obeying some laws telling it not to melt, even if warm currents pass underneath it, nor break apart if strong waves strike it. Not sure how i can get ginger to work with this. any ideas?
ginger.. hope u can brighten it up... Observations, to me, are sacrosanct, and one cannot rely upon a model to usurp their power....Else why do they bother to continue their observations?

Anyone know what that is, and I will calculate dist...

I am a little disappointed when i see the betting results (so far), as the distribution does not appear to me to be consistent with independent events for hurricanes striking the US. If each event has a probability of p (although the prob. will go down in time, as the season ends), then then the first has prob, p. I would think the second one would have a smaller prob, ~(1-p)p, as if the first one succeeded the second could not, etc. etc... but the data so far have the 2nd larger than the first... Oh well....Of course, i do not know what p is, anyway, but there likely is a good source for that...

how can one determine the "absolute minimum" before the year is up?

Well, I figure, it can happen, or if not, any number of mistakes can make it appear to happen. The human wishfulness can play a role, etc. etc. etc... So, there are lots of ways this can happen, even without a real cure being found..Then again, they also might find a cure too.

Let's all bid yes on this, so when it happens we can say we told you so.

Right carnac. I did it the other way around. I cashed in a lot of my $h , and then put a small amount on sdchargers, just to follow the market, and now I see I have lost half of it.... :(

Anyway, that's the way it goes....

Ahh, pixel, your question is already suspended.... Nice question both of you...
ken

I will see if i can find your question pixel

Like your comment fingers....

Hi, I thought isonomia was a condition of not being able to sleep..
(insomnia) :)
What a nice word. It should be true (the equality in politics and law). One person , one vote; justice is blind, etc.
but I am afraid in the US , it is not, sadly to say. Where are u located? Are u a lawyer? Your question deals with
global change; are u interested in this? I am.
well, take care, and great question again. I bet on a few, to get the ball rolling.

When you say "directly attack", do you mean physically? :)

Right, well, I finally figured out something. That is that the top people can try and arrange things to make money on this, and have money to manipulate the result of this market, so anyone like me (a poor schlub sp?) , can easily lose a bunch of $H.. Anyway, I will keep an eye on it, as it is an interesting question, but there might be some chaotic behavior near the end of the year... ....

Hey, great question!! isonomia..
by the way, what does isonomia stand for? anything?
Anyway, great question, and nice starting percentages too!!! Good luck on hubdub.

Oh, yes, perhaps the #2 thing is it.. I really don't read these questions so precisely as they need to be read...
getting old. :( ... Well, that must be it.. sorry folks.. still any thoughts on how u predict #2..?

I am not sure of this question.. Not what it means, but why people are predicting as they are.. Perhaps someone can explain (i hope). If orlin has the top money now, etc.. why isn't he being more preferred than sdchargers? (for example)... any thoughts? thx

I thought of some ideas related to this, and at the same time discourage "gaming", at least as I understand it....I just don't have the expertise to implement it, into the current format, or software used by Hubdub..
Still, in general, improvements along this line would be great..

great question markov!!!!

brilliant. Maybe though, for all her trouble, to agree to be on the ticket, she would want top billing?

The question seemed to first ask whether when the machine was turned on there would be reported damage. Now it seems we will have to wait until high energy collisions occur. I would think that in this time, someone will report "no damage" or words to that effect. So, I am reversing my position. The deciding matter is unclear to me. Nevertheless, I am quite sure that the collisions themselves will not do damage. Nor is it likely that turning the machine on will do damage, since they will already have tested the giant magnets involved, etc.... I think it likely that somewhere along the line someone will say "no damage."

Hi all,

Interesting question.. I am not so familiar with all the rules.. what is the "spitzer rule"? anyone?

Yes bayoubear,

I thought the 50 mile question which was earlier introduced when gustav was aimed at NO was very narrow. I was hoping to at least have a 50-50 chance (if it entered gulf), so there would be some guessing going on.. It looked close for awhile!!!! So 200 miles was good. I didnt choose it because of its closeness to texas. It just worked out that way. I never lived there, so I don't even know the distances that well...

there was a great movie with richard dreyfuss "moon over parador" about the same scenario for some south american country.. it is very funny!!!!

Hi Intlibber,what do you suggest should be used?

I am betting on McCain, but I hope I am wrong. I am always trying to separate my predictions from wishes. To be more objective with my predictions..

I think there's some kind of saying, about 'no one ever lost money in overestimating the intelligence of the American people'.

hi roger

I think there's plenty of people who lose interest, and/or cant be bothered with cashing in their $H. Not sure what is up, but not everyone can keep up with things...
This is my take on it. I also agree on the 10-13 option, and have been putting spare $ on this question for quite awhile. I wish it would settle sooner..OH well..

I thought some of this was cute ---- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GUeV358pDc

not that I agree with the prediction.. Those interested in this question might like a few minutes (not the whole thing)..

I thought some of this was cute ---- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GUeV358pDc

not that I agree with the prediction.. Those interested in this question might like a few minutes (not the whole thing)..

I think the same as you guys. Where are all the morons, that vote the other way? I can never figure out where all these dumb morons are? I never see them.. I guess they just go to the polls, and then go back into their caves? Or am I elitist?

Good question kruijs, but problem orlin states, and/also if person is now working in one region was either born, or did the Nobel work in another region..... Need some other answer to deal with these issues, like other or some such answer(s) dealing with these complexiites.. and of course, your other questions related to other prizes.

IT's a dog and pony show. They first bring the dogs, then the ponies...

Sorry for your trouble bayoubear. Thanks for your comment. When I saw Ike going towards the Florida straits, I thought that there was a possibility it could aim towards New Orleans. I thought I should give it a wide margin, as the earlier question of 50 miles was voided by the difficulty of defining the answer, within such a close margin. Now I see that it might very well make a close encounter (by the guesses now moving towards the <= 200 m). I think there is a large room for uncertainty though. I dont have any H$ of my own on this....

I hope for the people of NO that they do not get much of a hit, and also do not have to evacuate again.. Even that would be terrible, and they likely would not be so willing to do so..

Why are people placing their H$ on something that will not end till 4 years from now?

Destry, Of course you might have an impact.. Just by posting your opinion might have an impact.
I am glad that category editors have votes public, so it is open...

In any case, I am voting + on this. This is a signal of how cynical I am becoming. I normally would have voted no, as that is what I think "should" happen..But self interest of Alaskans would likely yield a + vote for him... anyway, we will see.

The online britannica calls the turks and caicos part of the bahamas... I hate to differ. I do not expect you to change your decision, as decisive decisions are important. Nevertheless, here is the site:

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/610193/Turks-and-Caicos-Islands

The earlier info, dealing with the plates, and how the caribbean sea is defined (in terms of plates) makes some sense geologically.


From a tourism perspective, it may be better for the bureau you site, for the islands to list them as part of the caribbean rather than the atlantic...(since the former is warm and the latter is cold).

In any case, I am minimizing some of my losses, and the hurricane has not arrived, nor do we know what hits dry land means.. I hope we can find out from some reputable source like the tourism site... :)

thanks for your efforts at clarification...

Sorry, can't resist seeing the humor in this.. Well, I have said too much already...

Hey! See if you can predict the outcome of this question I created. bigken1

It is a mathematics question.... these are sorely lacking on hubdub, i think... I do not know if this is good one.. appreciate any comments u have.. bigken1... so i can do better in future.

Let me say, I have no problem with tisha's clarification. It might be unfortunate (for my H$ :) ) to have this mean as she indicates, but I am fine with anything... It would be nicer to have clearer definitions when questions are posed, but i guess this is a continual problem on HD... , and with our modern usage of English, where we don't specify what we mean...

actually, i just looked at tisha's article more closely, and the map shows the caribbean sea, and caribbean plate, as not including the turks and caicos --- see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Tectonic_plates_Caribbean.png
which shows the map, and of course the other pictures which show the caribbean sea as NOT including the above islands (they show the large islands of cuba, etc. as being the northern most point of the caribbean)...

Also, of course, what does "hit dry land" mean? The first place rain hits dry ground? Or the eye passes over?

Well, obviously differences in human opinions on what words mean what objects makes differences in how we estimate probabilities!
the national hurricane center just lists all these islands as the bahamas --- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5day#contents

So, how are we supposed to know? if it is not defined in the question, what "other islands" means? and one term says bahamas, without listing which are the bahamas????? one place shows all these islands as bahamas, the other site (tisha describes) suggests all are part of caribbean, so why are some called caribbean and others not? The question needs to say what source defines which are bahamas, and which are not ---- it doesnt.

I am just a regular user.. what about asking admin? Is this a problem?, and if so, what is it?

tarpash, like these questions.. keep them coming..bigken

I couldnt find an answer if it just wanders around. So i put $ into the last two categories to cover the case, if Hanna does not make landfall in a US state, as this is "any other state"... like the state of non-existence.... but I am not sure this is what was meant. Any comments?

I think the heat from the Sun and Earth have, essentially gone, and the only way the temperature has go (generally) is down..Of course, statistical fluctuations are possible, from localized winds, but I'm betting they are increasingly smaller than the overall entropy preserving the temperature now, so unless a major storm from the south comes through, bringing entropy, I am not sure where the heat will come from...I think the only source is the ocean. The ice melt would have to be it, if this happens (allowing the ocean's heat to warm things up). Even if I lose, I will have learned something, so it will be worth it.

Any comments? I enjoy learning on this, so I am wondering why so many still have money in the 14 category.. Do these thermometers have their own statistical uncertainties, on the order of a couple of degrees? This would do it. Should averages of a number of stations be taken in questions of this kind, so we are predicting a real quantity, rather than, what amounts to, a dice? any thoughts?

The heat must come from somewhere.... The solar source is virtually gone. (and what there is is waning. ). The weather system transports heat. The oceans contain heat... etc. etc.. so, one must consider the sourcs and its variations.... Things are uncertain because of all the changing conditions..., etc... I am betting on the 10-13 thing too... Also have been pulling in and out of market too..

If she steps down, it would be because of self-interest...
It might be put in the context of family-related, but it would be self interest, not family interest.
If she cared about her family, she would not be putting stress on her daughter to rush into a marriage, etc.. etc... and under the scrutiny of the press for the rest of their lives, without their consent..(no time for that)..

Yes, of course it's ironic... He was quite willing to criticize Obama for being a celebrity/beauty, but then chooses someone who actually is, as a running mate! So, it shows how irrational he (as well as most humans) is. Anyway, I agree, although I am not sure how one totally defines it, in practice....

in any case, i fit rk725's criteria to appreciate the irony......, so i do....
if you do not , anyone, care to explain?

totally agree scott!
(about last comment)
Also, though, afraid your reasoning is a little off with regard to mother/grandmother issue. I am not the mother, but that doesn''t make me the grandmother...

mrperfkt, ryan, this is the way the calculation is done:
(from the hunting of the snark).
taking 3 as the subject to reason about, a convenient number to state, we add 7 and 10 and then multiply out by 1000 diminished by 8.
the result we proceed to divide as you see, by 992, and then subtract 17 and the answer must be, exactly and perfectly true.

The method employed I would gladly explain, as i have it so clear in my head, if i had but the time and you had but the brain, but much more remains to be said.

any questions?

I think it really could become activated if it threads the needle and enters the Gulf.... It looks on target, but it is still early.

sorry onedave, I think this is an interersting question, but the wording is convoluted. Unless you have a good site for posting which city , in which state receives the most rain, it is not likely to be something that is reported.... I looked at your site, but didnt see all the detail. do you have a site, which lists rainfall in each city from particular hurricanes? that can answer it?

I think they might say this state receives this much rain, etc. etc. but that is not what your question says. Perhaps I am wrong.. hope so.

I am not sure if the question could use rewording, but likely not worth it..

How can the first word be "my friends", or "thank you", etc.
wouldn't it be "my" or "thank"...?

heh fingers, what is that symbol with the 8 supposed to mean?
I only care about what she says, in the same manner i care to listen to Abbot and Costello.

good question moonglow.
With his closeness to God, I think he will even issue religious pardons on behalf of his staff. By the way, can he pardon himself?
That is the one, who really needs the greatest pardon. After all, isn't that where the buck stops?

You said "who is buried in grant's tomb". I thought it was grant. Who's on first.

Oh, wow. I just checked my facts, and Ike was born in Texas... So, that is where he first hit dry land... Hehehe..
sorry folks....

Considering that Ike led the D-day forces, I would think the answer should be France. I do not even see that as an answer. Why do i get so many wrong answers? Or maybe the question deals with when his mother gave birth? I would need to look that up in a biography, but i think they were from the midwest. Oh well.

I also know he went to West point, which is New York. As a new yorker myself, I do not consider any other places really exist, so why is new york not even given its own line? Normally I would ask for questions like this to be voided, but I am in a good mood today, so i will consider this question as some kind of out of touch joke.

Are other people out of touch, or is just me? This should be the real question. the answer is tooo obvious - other people.

It's amazing.. A real cliffhanger. There's a reason for warming actually. The melted ice from global warming allows the oceans to provide moderating effect on climate. Nevertheless, I am betting the other way at this point, as I do not think the effect is strong enough to go any further. I think it has already done its thing. I could be wrong. It only takes a small stochastic (statistical) fluctuation at this point..

Well, I am taking the 50 miles as more sacrosanct than the newspapers simply saying the storm hit new orleans, as they also will be saying it hits the US and/or louisiana, etc... so, the specific wins over the general, in my book.

There are different statements in the "settlement" details. ON the one hand it says comes within 50 miles, and on the other hand, it says "hurricane reported as hitting new orleans" This is what makes many, many questions ambiguous. There is TOO MUCH information (which are not self-consistent).

can anyone clarify which takes precedence . the newspapers or the location (and is it the eye center or edge, etc.) . Hurricanes can have monstrous eyes. Much larger than an octopus, for example, but they do not see as clearly.

Heh, great question.... I think question is well understood. Nevertheless, for future, numbers are better written as
60%>=T>55%... etc...

What is to prevent someone (a hubdub user) from sending in some mistakes and thereby raise the count?
I am not betting on this, so it doesn't matter to me... but such a thing bothers me... Any ideas anyone?

When I first started to Hubdub, I was shocked by some of the tasteless questions, and used to flag them for review.. Now I find myself betting on some of them. i am ashamed at this change, but i guess we all get corrupted by things.. I know I wish there was not evil in the world. ... Oh well, I do not know what else to say.
I think there should be some kind of "line". I don't know what it is, or where it should be drawn. Hope hubdub has some standards. Does anyone know if there is a line, and what it is?

It says it will be resolved "As reported by a major mainstream news source. "
Will a newstream source actually report that the letters ED are in the name?
Or must hubdub identify this, and notice it. :)

This question, like a number of them, is not well posed. The question asks "Will Arctic sea ice extent shrink to a new record minimum in 2008?", but then the question suspends in a week. This is before the minimum occurs, and the site for the solution is dependent upon a forecast model, not the actual data!

So, who knows how the answer will be settled?

Hmmmm..

I did exactly what you did mrperfkt.... and got the 32...
I did not realize it might be more difficult than the official site you reference.
I also checked to see where the extra swimming contest was (since there are a different number for
men and women), so used this for an extra check.
Am surprised how complex simple questions can be. This is the problem with things that are not mathematical, and are not "contained locally", but require assumptions and/or common understandings on word meanings, etc.. Oh well... that's life.

click both men's and women's events listed separately . The world records do not count, so I am only counting the ORs..

I just counted the women's ORs and get 16 too, but also another 16 for the men's too (heh, we count), making the total, 32. I also now count the total number of contests and I get 19 women’s and 40 men's , so that is different than suggested in the question, where it says there are about ~ 36. So it is up to the individual to count them right. My original question had a higher (than 36) number listed. Also, I didn't think that their timing might not be so accurate that they would list =ORs (which fortunately they do not have, but have a symbol for!).

In any case, with the number greater than 31, it seems like the last category will win (which unfortunately I did not bet on!). I am just a novice to all this, but hopefully will learn fast. Hope u all had fun, and I am sure some people won some H$ - those that can count right, and look up stuff on the web.

newswrangler, good one! :)
thx for comment tisha.
This news story on katie couric's eve news show was very touching..
Here's a site with
li'l smokey (couric's site) ---
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/08/18/couricandco/entry4360938.shtml

way to go mrperfkt and coolkraft, as the joker says in batman movie :“Why so serious?”
Let's all lighten up.

Well valornhonor, I really liked you batman quote!!! I have been laughing ever since..

intlibber, maybe we can agree to disagree. I am not sure all your numbers or statements are totally accurate, and arguing about exactly when faint signals started when indeed the industrial revolution did start early, but it was not much of anything. Plus, I am not, nor have I been saying that the SUN did not do anything before the recent increase in CO2 . I am a solar physicist, and agree that the Sun did do somethings!! (but now, i believe its normal role has been surpassed by mankind's changing the atmospheric chemistry). The sun can do a lot, as its long term variations can last for centuries . Climate can respond to weak signals if they are long term (secular) changes.., which the Sun does very well. But mankind's influences have been so great, they can influence climate from a shorter time period.. that's it.

Officially, I believe, a rocket is a satellite if it achieves orbit. I do not know how one distinguishes a satellite from a rocket, although usually a satellite emanates from the rocket... (but it need not be so). Just my thoughts re whether a rocket can be classified as a satellite....if the rocket does not achieve orbit, of course, then it is not a satellite... (it is classified as a sounding rocket -- as this is how the atmosphere was sounded -- measurements made).

Hi Intlibber,

Sorry, but i am again at odds with something you say... I find your statement - Vertical lapse rates will not be significantly altered., at odds with my understanding of atmospheric radiation balance .... My understanding is that overall, the atmosphere has a rough energy balance.. so that a lower atmospheric heating is balanced by stratospheric cooling . I think this was found originally by manabe and strickler... I could be mistaken. I am a solar physicist, not a meteorologist, but am interested in meteorology,climatology, etc... and the sun has a lot more convection and radiation than the poor earth does, so i try to understand these things generally..
well good luck...

hi notablenotices
There are 2 points, I guess you are addressing now.. One is the scientific question and the second is the political aspects or response to the climate situation and what to do / how much etc.

With regard to the scientific question, I feel the majority of climate scientist do believe climate warming is real. The exact extent of the warming, and even more importantly, the effect upon species, secondary effects upon weather, etc. etc. are even less well known. So, scientifically, there are varying degrees of knowledge... but the basic overall climate warming is understood theoretically, and observational support seems to be there.. Biological effects are less well known.

With regard to political responses, this is problematic, as people are generally out for themselves, and it is always easier to pollute (like throw one's garbage over the neighbor's fence) than recycle it, and/or get rid of it responsibly, so with global warming, most countries, the US in particular, are taking various self-serving stances.. (We won't agree, until all these other countries agree, etc. in terms that are favorable to us).. So, the politicians also have a vested interest, driven by lobbying, big oil money, etc. to simply ignore the problems, and/or pay off some self-serving scientists to raise questions about the whole effect, etc... As a consequence many, many people have stuck their heads in the sand for far too long.

There are a number of "solutions", some mentioned -- putting iron in the oceans to help marine organisms to grow and thus recapture CO2 and convert it to o2, etc. But , we are running out of time, as there are various feedback effects, wherein warming creates more warming, etc. -- the vicious circle ideas I mentioned...

The problems of population, war, etc. etc. are all in there thrown in too. so, it is a very stubborn complicated problem. I doubt very much, that global warming would wipe out all of life on earth, but it could bring down our current civilization, and/or change things drastically, so as to make it very, very different, like entering another "dark age" period, for hundreds of years or more, until thing somehow get back to normal, if they ever do... who knows?

thanks notablenotices,
Firstly, my last paragraph in the above comment is simply my own - NOT FROM THE WIKI site. sorry, i just wanted to add some comment.
I looked at your two sites, and shall look for your book. I see nothing there, that relates directly to whether the current warming is manmade. Just because natural variability acts one way (with a temperature change showing up first), does not mean that CO2 fluctuations induced by manmade fossil fuel burning cannot induce the same kind of temperature change.. Not sure why one wishes to hold on to the past, as if every future event must be identical to previous history from natural variability, when it is clear we are doing something quite different to the natural behavior of the Earth's cycles. (we are initiating the change), not the Sun, nor volcanoes, etc.
I presume the difficulty some people have in believing human-induced climate change has to do with wishful thinking. If not, then tell me what.
I also think it is helpful, for those with a scientific bent, to examine so-called "energy balance climate models" or " one-dimensional climate models." They track the incoming and outgoing radiation and give a clear picture of how such changes as co2 doubling would affect the temperature of the earth, or solar radiation changes, etc., etc. they are also a lot easier to understand than GCMs (global climate models or general circulation model) - which model the entire earth. Here is a good site for these models -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

thanks notablenotices,
I shall look at them... Here is a site that provides info on climate change --
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

It says (amonst other things) :
Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution.

Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1880s and accelerating ever since, the human consumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm to ~387 ppm today.[7] These increasing concentrations are projected to reach a range of 535 to 983 ppm by the end of the 21st century.[8] It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher now than at any time in the last 750,000 years.[9] Along with rising methane levels, these changes are anticipated to cause an increase of 1.4–5.6 °C between 1990 and 2100 (see global warming).

Temperature change can act to increase warming too, as when temperature increases, the air holds more water. Water itself (water vapor) is a greenhouse gas. This is one of the reasons why greenhouse warming is such a big problem (that the equations are non-linear - meaning there is a "vicious circle" kind of behavior involved. - that an addition to warming causes more warming etc. etc.). There must eventually be some kind of limit, but there is also a phenomon called "a runaway greenhouse effect" . this is what Venus has. It is when the radiation from the top of the atmosphere is so strong, that the bottom of the atmospheric temperature is no longer limited by radiation from the whole atmosphere. This happens when the gas is "optically thick " in the the infrared. It means that there is, essentially, no connection between the temperature of the planet and the blackbody radiation temperature of a black body in radiative equilibrium between the sun and outer space.
As long as the plane still radiates a significant amount from the ground directly to space, there is some attachment to radiative balance, but as less and less radiation goes directly from ground to space, the more it becomes "runaway". Once runaway, the planetary temperature can fluctuate even more dramatically due to various perturbations or fluctuations. All the chaotic weather events we have been having, I fear, are somewhat due to this kind of thing (but i do not know).

HI, how is question decided, if answer is between .x9 and .(x+1)0? (e.g. .195?)

This is not clear and should be modified to consider these numbers as they will happen about 10% of time -- (if you throw a dart at the real line, it has a 10 % chance of landing in one of these areas..

Nice question pixelpaws!! I also admire you for thinking up this innovative question and coming up with reasonable distribution of answers!!!!! congratulations. You have an A+ in my book.

I foolishly lose money every time I bet on the way I think things should go (ie. fired or suspended -- it is totally outrageous that he is teaching students this way). Invariably i lose money when I bet on the way I think things should happen... I think i should bet against what I think should happen, and would do better. It seems like the world is getting more and more amoral. Are our standards getting lower, or am i just naive -- (I think i know). Is there a hubdub question there, or not.. likely not, as no objective way to show it in a reasonable time.

hi folks,

here are some sites for books that clarify how climate models should be run...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model

if we could do it with some common ground, progress might be made...

there are numerous ohter sources, but it is good to start from something good.
ken

Hi all,

I agree that low sunspots equals cool sun (and "little ice ages"), etc IN THE PAST, but all these effects did NOT OCCUR with mankind changing the chemistry of the atmosphere, so the current variability may NOT be predictable by simply extending the past natural climate history into the future.. (this is not too complex to understand, but has not been totally elucidated. ). .

Intibbler , I agree with your little ice age material. actually, I am a solar physicist, so should like the Sun to be responsible for all the climate change... (but although i think it has been related to some of it in the past- as you point out (I AGREE WITH ALL THAT), do not believe this guarantees this does so in the future)...

Just imagine a function, say z, governed by 2 other functions , say z=x+y, with all three being functions of time, and lets say that x=sine t and y= 0, except for t>0, where y = 10.. Now, for times <0 z is a sine function, but for t> 0 because of the discontinuity y and z jump up by 10.. Mankind has introduced (within ~ 50 years which is short interval on climate change) a jump in the chemistry of its atmosphere.. Not so difficult to understand.. As gore says "an inconvenient truth"...

HI all, great additions again. I did purposely say "olympic records" not world records, as competing in the olympics is a one time in four years things "on demand" so to speak, and there are pros and cons for getting such a record -- pros -- you try to all get fit for that one big important day.. cons -- you are competing against all the other athletes (who themselves may take it away from you, even if u get an olympic record... and you are off your schedule, with flights, jet lag, lack of sleep, etc...) With all my olympic experience, i ought to know :) .

good luck all, bigken

HI Intlibber,

I do not understand your statement. Different planets have different amounts of their own type of greenhouse gas.The terrestrial planets (the inner ones) have negligible internal energy from gravitational contraction, and although their cores can remain hot from radioactiivty, their atmospheres are in general radiative balance with solar radiation. This means that they radiate an energy = to that from the sun falling on the planet. This only means that at a level in the atmosphere (for those that have atmospheres) where tau~ 1 (the optical depth~1) , the have a blackbody radiation temperature governed by the stefan boltzmann law... This is about 30 K cooler than the surface of the Earth.. The extra heating comes about by the properties of the radiation and convection effects (meteorology) within the earth's atmosphere. for those planets (e.g. venus) that have a LOT of greenhouse gases, the planetary atmosphere can be incredibly hot..(ave about 750 K!), due to greenhouse warming. for planets with little atmospheric greenhouse gases (like Mars) the atmosphere is a lot cooler (-63 C).. so, I am not sure what you are talking about with regard to warming from mankind on other planets...

I agree that the tundra, oceans etc. are playing a role in co2 atmospheric carbon balances, etc... also some of the other comments made (about underground coal mines and fires being a bad thing).. so there is no disagreement with a LOT of what is being said.. the whole problem is very complex and there are many issues -- population growth of course....

HI all,

thanks for all your great comments. I didn't have the right count when I first developed the question, and tried to correct it. But I didn't see some of the problems you all stated. I also noticed that I said >31 for the last entry. It should have been 31 or greater, or >=31. In any case, as written, I guess all get money back if it exactly = 31.
I also didn't know that the pool they have there is so exquisite for helping get fast times, and how much of a role the new suits would play in affecting the outcomes, but it really is exciting..
thx, bigken

thanks all for comment. Valornhonor - your question certainly stirred my interest! I am coauthor of a book dealing with climate change.. so, i feel i know something about question... Wish my, and the majority of physical scientists - Ph D., were wrong, then we wouldn't need to worry about problem.. Nevertheless, the CO2 has increased a