diana

Hello everyone, we are a bit puzzled here at headquarters. The issue with settlement is that the 60 days have passed and we don't know if the report is in or when/if any of it will be released to the public. We've decided that waiting until June 15th is decent. If there's nothing released by the market will be voided.

I also agree. Why not push it to June 16th, keeping the market liquid? As for the background, I know what you mean, but there should be a little something for those who aren't up to date on the topic!

Ok, the suspension time has been extended after user request. Also in the news, I found this interesting:

"Mattel’s implied volatility, a measure of anticipated stock price volatility used in the pricing of options, rose 14 percent to 33.8 percent from Tuesday’s close, making it one of the afternoon’s top volatility gainers in the U.S. options market, she said.

“The interest in the July calls suggested a whiff of confidence among option traders that the Barbie maker’s legal smack down against the Bratz creator has some merit...”"

http://blogs.reuters.com/shop-talk/2008/05/28/barbie-bratz-legal-tangle-drives-up-mattel-options-volatility/

If it was paid out as a void, it was because the prediction was placed after a news story broke out. All predictions are automatically voided if that occurs. Sorry!

To respond to a message that this market was closed prematurely, the HubDub rules state that:

"The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is 'Who will Edwards endorse?' and the suspend date is February 5th then the question should not be interpreted as 'Who will Edwards endorse by February 5th?'"

If the dig opens up again, there should definitely be a new market.

Yeah, "other" is pretty much a safety net. Good thinking!

Hm, this looks like a definite "no" by the may 31st deadline....Is it fair to let it slide until the 31st? I think these news reports make it clear that he won't jump until later.

Any suggestions for a suspend date? I will set it to sometime in the summer for now but we can change that based on user suggestions.

Hey paulcroft, you were completely right with your prediction. I just read a report that the death toll could rise to 50,000. It's quite sad.

The settlement request article states the following (I think it's not final yet and I couldn't find any other articles online that said that the appeal had been won): MSBC then sent letters to Congressional representatives who requested ATF reconsider their decision. ATF said they would and will publish their opinion within 45 days. A letter from our local supervisor requesting ATF approve the bottle cap made it into the hands of a local newspaper and the rest is history!
http://www.weedales.com/try_legal_weed-about_the_weed_ales_bottle_caps.htm

http://pageoneq.com/news/2008/VIDEO_CNN_reports_California_marriage_ruling_impr_0515.html

Oh CNN...

Wait, what is this question based on? What's the background?

Mork, you seem on top of this. When will the trial come to a close? I'm trying to figure that out.

Hey guys, the Hubdub team fixed the settlement, so that people who did not get paid for their correct prediction the first time, should have been paid the second. Let me know if there were any problems. -- Diana

original blog post: http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/05/09/living-with-demons-how-much-did-rosemarie-fritzl-know/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080502/wl_nm/sudan_planecrash_dc_6

There was a settlement request for this story, but a Beechcraft 1900 is not a large commercial plane.

I'm trying to get in touch with the creator of this market, but I believe the market infers "which commercial plane will crash..."

This is nuts---I predict some lawsuit markets to be made in connection with this.

She wasn't kidding about that whole 'rehab' thing...

I don't know about you, but RyanAir has not been my friend. I'm so mad, I can blog!

I was just informed that the cutoff time was set to 2008-05-05 03:50:00, so the voids were all correct. Sorry!

Let me look into this. If the prediction was made after the article date/time, it automatically voids. A lot of people are saying it was voided, so it might be a glitch. I'll investigate guys.

Since there have been pictures of the daughter as a little girl, we would have to qualify current pictures of the daughter to settle as a 'yes.'

Hey mrperfkt, I changed the date. Let me know if there are any issues.

His wife may be completely innocent, but 24 years is a long time to not look in the basement...Especially when four people were living down there.

I wasn't sure when the painting was going to be auctioned. I'll move the suspend date so more people can make predictions if they desire.

"The painting will be on public view in London for the first time at a special exhibition at Christie's and will go on sale on the other side of the Atlantic as the highlight of Christie's New York Post-War and Contemporary Art Evening Sale on May 13."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/arts/main.jhtml?xml=/arts/2008/04/11/bbfreud111.xml

this is sooo not legal.

To address rohan's suggestion: If there is no announcement on the reason for the crash made by Aug 20th (6 months from the market's opening), then it will be settled as “Other/No reason given."

It's all about Tesco Custard Cream biscuits anyway!

Definition as well--also no one can amend initial odds once the market is open.

What is this hoax business? Background?

Here's a news link: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/15/AR2008011503663.html

Do we have any idea for a suspend date?

Why suspended so early, orlin?

Did the Declaration of Independence have any relevance in National Treasure? It's been out for a while too...

I didn't know that! I wonder how Sigmund would analyse this painting in particular. ;)

Let's discuss auction market rules here (I'll post this in other auction markets too): http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/auctions_to_settle_or_not_to_settle_that_is_the_question

Let's discuss auction market rules here (I'll post this in other auction markets too): http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/auctions_to_settle_or_not_to_settle_that_is_the_question

Thanks newswrangler! I just posted a response and I'm interested in what users think about what the 'auction policy' should be. These auction markets are fairly trendy now and I think we should all be in general understanding about when we should suspend/settle these markets. I sense a Get Satisfaction topic coming on...

Hi anaverageamerican,

Thanks for that suggestion. I completely agree with you, but some other think that it's 'safe' to settle when the auction's bids rise above the market goal (i.e. $100,000 in the case of the above card). I do think it can be left open and I can push forward any of these ideas in creating some 'auction market rules'. Also do we all think that markets such as this one should be left open until prior to the auction's closure (say 24 hours)? If the markets are left to be fluid, then users are free to buy out at any time. No one is going to make a profit buying in right now. Thoughts?

Thanks!

Diana

Daniel Craig makes such a wonderful Bond. No one tops Connery though. ;)

Human error, guys. I'm really sorry. I didn't catch the 11-year-old girl part in the market question--I tried to access the link, but when that didn't work, I assumed the article that was sent to us contained the background info.

The market is now reopened and I am catching up on the Madeline Neumann case. Sorry again.

Still checking...auction site is down or something?

I think I found the reason as to why there was no payout for some users. This market was created Fri 28th Mar 9:58am PST and I found chull's 31st Mar (published at 1pm ET) news article to be the first indication of charges filed against the parents. From what I can see, people who bet correctly got paid. Let us know otherwise. Sorry about that confusion.

Well, the IOC decision is clear in that they won't 'scrap' the relay. In all the news articles I came across, it appeared that the IOC would not 'shorten' the relay either--I think individual portions of the relay will definitely be changed at the local level (i.e. San Francisco and Indonesia's sentiments to alter the route); however, there was no IOC decision on this. The route is definitely subject to change. If someone has an article that the IOC decided to shorten the route, bypass cities, etc, we will change this for sure.

Can anyone access the auction site?

Hi guys, I've brought up auction settlements with the team and we definitely think that the rules should be adjusted as following: If the auction bid rises above the market's goal--like it has done here--then it should be settled despite the risk that the sell might not be achieved in the end for whatever reason. I'm not sure why, but I can't connect to the auction site, so once I am able to do that, I will settle the market. Thanks for being patient.

That's interesting, epicur. Mosley appears to have apologized, but only for the embarrassment that it has caused, not for his behavior. Classic! If this is the case and no one "fires" him per se, then I suppose he would have apologized and stayed in his position.

Also this might lead to a good market:
There is growing opposition towards Mosley, and at this stage it appears inconceivable he can win a vote of confidence via a secret ballot of the FIA General Assembly to take place in Paris on June 3.
“Accordingly, CAA’s President, Tim Shearman, sent a letter dated Friday, April 4th, to the FIA formally asking for Mr Mosley’s resignation.
http://www.autoracingdaily.com/article/max-mosley-rumors-lessen-calls-for-resignation-increase/

I'm not keen on how the vote would work, so someone who is more familiar with the FIA could perhaps set a market based on this upcoming vote?

Cheers, Diana

Come on, Fox news? I wouldn't take it seriously--besides, this market is just for fun. As for the recent spike, I really have no explanation.

Hubdub has suspended this market and we are moving discussion here:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/terrorism

Hi everyone, this market was settled earlier today, but for some reason, something happened as the settlement year registered as 2007, causing all predictions to be voided. We are investigating this and hopefully all settlements will be safeguarded in the future. Again, I'm really sorry for those of you who participated in this market. Best, Diana

The British Airways website earlier today has made no statements in regards to bags being cleared. This market will run in accordance to settlement details: 'As reported by British Airways announcing the baggage backlog is, indeed, cleared and off to the owners.'

meanderingsearcher stated that the auction would be in March--it looks like the gun will be up for auction again, so this will be settled according to the results of the March 2008 auction.

Let's wait to see what unfolds:
Formula One great Jackie Stewart warned on Sunday that Max Mosley's involvement in a sex scandal could have a commercial impact on the sport and called for the FIA president to resign.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/motorSportsNews/idUKL062024120080406

There have been a few settlement requests, but we will go with the settlement date.

Apologies, newswrangler is completely right.

In the event the auction does not happen, how about we settle it as "less than $500,000"? He sounds really serious on his website, but June is a bit far away. Good point, kruijs.

Cool, the outcomes can't be amended, so we'll take that to mean "12 or more days" - Diana

Hi Johann or anyone else participating in this market. The Hubdub team has been trying to figure out the background information of this question. Could someone send me a link to what this question is about or a link to where will will find the information to settle this market?

I just watched the video attributed to that article--freaked me out!

I think this should be settled by an initial report--a similar plane crash market used that for settlement. Thoughts?

I think this is a great market, but as newswrangler pointed out, news coverage has not indicated that the auction will end June 25, 2008 (Couldn't he set the auction for a week?). The auction is set for June 22, 2008. Also, I have read various articles quoting his life to be way more than $391,000. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/03/17/webay117.xml

I'd say a 60% chance that he will get that much is way too low. I'm going to void it, but this is a really interesting story. Could you amend this and repost it, meanderingsearcher?

Sorry duckie, I had to delete your comment. Bleep it next time, please!

This question has just been changed to read '$7.7 million or more' - Diana

I wish I found a painting worth £3 million in my sitting room!

Also, I will void any personal bet based on this market change if anyone desires.

Ok, so based on newswrangler's article, the suspension date has been extended. That article came out March 7, 2008 and the only mention to the investigation is that the police are still looking. I do not want to extend the suspension date indefinitely, so I'll set it to June 1, 2008.

I initially added the suspension date because this market was floating around with hardly any activity. Lesson learned.

So I think this story has somewhat died. All I can find is that the parents/or a parent might be American: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2008/02/01/abandoned-baby.html

Since there isn't an end date on this one, I will just set it for tomorrow, March 23, 2008. I hope no one has any objections to this!

I'm confused by the wording of this market--do you mean sign a contract by April 1, 2008 or actually do it?

I wish the temperature in Edinburgh would shoot through the roof!!

Since nothing turned up by the suspend date, the suspend date has now been extended. If nothing turns up (in the news) by then, we might have to void.

The issue with this market is that it can be interpreted in several ways--illustrated in the issues brought up in the comment section of this market. I think the best way to prevent these questions from being voided is to be specific as possible. When you say 10 inches of snow, make sure you state something that indicates "more than 10 inches" or "less than 10 inches"...something to avoid confusion! Thanks for the market though; I am just trying to be fair!

Hi, we've discussed this market and we are leaving it open. We have looked at the articles and taken comments into account. Even the rhetoric of the articles does not specify that it was an act of terrorism.

Great question, but Hubdub has decided that the figure isn’t independently tracked. In the future, try referencing Alexa or Compete on markets like this. Thank you.

We enjoy these comparative weather questions at Hubdub; however, based on the lack of specifications, this particular market will be difficult to settle seeing that we would have to calculate weather differences at multiple times of the day. If this market was to refer to the "lows" or "highs" in each respective city, it would be a better market. We are currently discussing these markets over at Hubdub and we will be amending our weather rules. Thank you!

The question was settled using national weather service websites:

Low In Norman Wells:
-21.4°C
http://text.www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nt-21&unit=m

High in Dallas, TX
http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDAL.html
85°F calculated to 29.4°C (Calculated from http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/tempfc.htm)

Difference: 50.8°C

The Pentagon analyzed debris using radar. I can't find any source confirming the actual physical inspection of debris.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/dead_satellite

I believe she's writing at the moment, but I agree it's doubtful that another Harry Potter book will be coming out. I'm a bit skeptical about the starting likelihood for this market--no uproar thus far though.

She got her visa! This was just settled correctly!

Nice try!

Sorry about all the confusion! Based on user response, we've agreed that we should void this market based on the question's wording.

New Kids? They're quite old now. Also, why is it that there are so many reunion tours happening? I blame the Spice Girls.

That is so scary! Let's hope it doesn't happen again.

Thanks to this question, I now know that DeBakey is a pioneering cardiovascular surgeon! Hopefully he will make it to 100.

Sorry, you can't create a market with a 99% likelihood--also there is absolutely no way to determine this.

This is a great question! I know if I bet on this one I'll probably get it completely incorrect!

Well, I think it generally means that the satellite will damage a populated area i.e. a city of some sort. I'm willing to let this one ride.