dohler

I'm amazed at the numbers here too. When I made this, I set the "No devices are validated" answer at 96% and thought to myself "That's too low." But, I don't think the question should be closed prematurely just because the laws of physics dictate the answer. The fact that so many people are willing to bet against the laws of physics is interesting in itself.

This question leaves out the possibility that Yahoo might remain an independent company and make a deal with no one.

Actually, I take that back--it needs to be voided, but because the "Never" and "She dies first" options cannot be interpreted to be exclusive.

I don't think it needs to be voided; I think most people, after reading the question, will interpret it to mean "By A", "After A but by B", "After B but by C" and so on. Everyone on this site knows and expects questions to have mutually exclusive answers. If everyone invests as if these answers were exclusive, and if the question is settled that way, there shouldn't be a problem even if the text of the question is technically incorrect.

I think shadowfax was questioning whether there is any support for a 90% starting value based on current news reports. Who has suggested this? If it is anyone less than John McCain himself or a powerful GOP insider, a starting value of 90% Yes to this question would seem to be grossly out of line with the available information.

Dropping out of the US Democratic primary is vague; I assume what is meant by this is "US Democratic presidential nomination race".

Over what period of time? In what markets?

Actually, after some Googling, I can't even figure out what Nokia Aveon is--all the hits are in foreign languages and don't seem to pertain to a particular phone model. Can anyone find out what Nokia Aveon is? If not, I suggest this question be voided.

But see http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/03/obamas-super-bowl-ad-join/ -- Obama has purchased *local* ads that will run during the Super Bowl in 24 states. Does that count, or does the question apply only to what are normally thought of as Super Bowl ads: the national ones?

@nigeleccles: That sounds like a good solution to me. Perhaps instead of having the generic "flag for review," you could have several different ways to flag, so that we can simply click "Request amend settlement date." If a settlement date is amended, give all buyers a short window (say, two days) in which they can cash out at the rate they bought in at.

But in order to satisfy the question, Gaza would have to be a "state," not just independent. Some countries recognize Gaza as a state, but as you point out, Western countries do not. So in order for the question to be answered "yes," there would have to be wide recognition of the Palestinian state (otherwise it's not a state), and a lack of continuing control of airspace and territorial waters by Israel (otherwise it's not independent).