jtwilkins

http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL08797545.html

Hubdub won't work with out better moderation. Look at the news then look how many people wagered on this prediction after it was reported he was dropping or suspending his campaign.

You can't make a bet that something is going to happen after it actually takes place.

There is 2 questions in this prediction. 1) Will Hillary offer Obama a the spot of Vice President 2) Will he accept

This question is poorly worded and should be no where near 50% to start. The question also does not state a time frame for the Prediction to become true. The Prediction is also a compound.

Please clarify if your count for most delegates includes predicted superdelegates or not. There is all ready problems with a similar Prediction for Super Tuesday and where or not the superdelegates count for settling the question.

People need to stop putting settlement details in the Prediction's description. The description states, "Based on the mediation talks headed by Koffi Annan" and the end date is effectively Friday 2/9/07 so I would say this would imply a intimidate step down as a result of the talks not a step down even a week or a month from now.

I recived this response from a hubdub moderator which in my opinion should have been a public reply for the reasons that it involves everyone invested in this Prediction.
"Hi jtwilkins,

According to the NYT site Clinton is ahead in Super Tuesday delegates. The question author made it clear he wanted the market settled via the data on the NYT website. Where are you seeing Obama ahead on the NYT site?

Regards,
Ryan

Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor"

To this I replied:
The data on that page includes information for a count with out the
superdelegate count on a state by state basis and if you look at the
page it even has a link for delegate. So with your reasoning I can
come to the same conclusion to support my statement. The web page
tells you how many commited delegtes there are along with the count of
committed delegates + superdelegates. To further support his claim the
question author linked this address in there description, "Reference
page for this market can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/ref/us/politics/2008delegates.html"

In this reference page the NYT states, "Pledged vs. Unpledged (Superdelegates)

There are two kinds of delegates assigned to each state by the
Democratic National Committee — pledged and unpledged (commonly called
superdelegates).

Pledged delegates are chosen by each state's nominating process and
bound by the process, while unpledged delegates are not bound by any
state elections and include all of the members of the Democratic
National Committee and elected officials such as members of Congress
and governors."

There is two important facts on this page. First supedelegates are
unpledged which means uncommitted. The second paragraph clearly states
pledged (committed) votes are chose by voting (which is stated as an
important part of the question due to the point of super Tuesday) and
that supdelegates are unpledged and unbound.

*****From this page linked in the Perdiction's description as a
reference that originated with the Prediction how do the words
"Unpledged" and "not bound" which define superdelegate equal
"committed delegates" for the determination of this Prediction.*****

Hubdub can not make major assumptions when ruling on questions
specifically when those assumptions contradict a Pridiction's linked
reference page.
I also hope that Hubdub is not making prediction rulings based on
keeping its user base happy as opposed to making fair accurate
rulings."

A superdelegate is an estimation not a committed vote because superdelegates can flip there vote at anytime before the convention. The description even states this, "What really matters in the election is the number of delegates a candidate receives."
Obama is ahead in committed delegates after super Tuesday.

It is stupid questions like this that makes hubdub pointless. This question started at 50/50, and there is no way Gore can just enter the race tomorrow. So all this question does is give the people huge amount of dub money for a zero risk investment.

Any direct link to this video? Searched all over with no luck finding it.

She's into politics no way she would make an official announcement on "Super Tuesday"

I is 3am est.. I think it is safe to call this one. Even perez hilton doesn't have any crazy midnight sneak in c-section rumors posted.

Why is this question suspended another question just like it went live?

Settlement rules: As reported by HD DVD Promotion Group in major media.

There is a group that is paid to promote the standard. As stated in the settlement rules when they give up or funding by HD DVD backers pull funding then it is officially over.

How is this starting at 97%-100% chance for a guilty verdict against Pirates Bay. This person isnt even tying to give an accurate prediction, stuff like this is going to make money and prediction profit worthless on the site.

Please let the users decide for themselves and allow the higher quality prediction questions rise to the top.

How do you have a question that can not be answered until December 2008 and the voting ends on Mon 31st Mar 11:59pm PST?

And also what does around mean? Worse case someone will buy them out for there name and the Treo line so there is really zero percent chance that the name Palm will fall off the face of the earth in 2008.

Had this question in my head and I think it is much better posed and odds given then the other Osama kill/capture question.

I thought the twins bet would be more interesting. Some Chinese tabloids are reporting twins. I think it is pretty solid guess now she is pregnant. But with twins that is why I only gave it a 30% chance, real should have given it more like 10% but I am still feeling out how to pose good questions.