mozrules

Someone has to watch CNN all day long to confirm if they show any clips of past derailments, etc? Glad it's not me! hehe
Seems to me that if Amtrak wants more people to take the train, they should have their National Train Day on a work day, when most people are likely to try alternate commuting methods...

I love when people add some background history to the questions - good job, epicur! :-)

I didn't wager on this question, either, but glad to see it was settled reasonably.

If someone asked "Were there any fatalities in Kosovo due to riots and unrest in March?" would anyone really answer with "No, there were no fatalities. But there was one death." That doesn't make any sense.

Kudos to Lesley for letting logic prevail. :-)

I can't believe the question ended up being about the definition of the word 'resign'. Because really, if a person is to say Spitzer did not resign from office of the Governor on Wednesday March 12th, then wasn't he at least 'resigned' to resign, and thus fulfilling the question after all? ;-)

lol theonecalledmichael - according to hubdub, there hasn't been a resignation yet.

just goes to show, you can't believe all the news you read or saw on tv yesterday! ;-)

"What I'm going to do is settle the market now for the likelihood of a resignation next week. This is due to the official response stating that Spitzer had not "resigned." "

I just hope on Monday we get as many news sources reporting "Spitzer resigns today" as we did yesterday...

"Welcome to hubdub, the only site on the world wide web where Eliot Spitzer did NOT resign on Wednesday, March 12th."
;-)

Voiding questions as simple as this one should've been just helps keep things in perspective - no real dollars are involved here, so everyone's opinion/interpretation of news reported by major media sources can influence and change the outcome at any time.

Oh, to have made HD $235 on this prediction would have been such sweet, sweet joy. Alas, I shall enjoy yet another Voided victory - one of many bittersweet moments to savour, and a growing number by the day.

I jest! (sort of) Although I can admit this question has been one amusing ride. :-)

Wow, good point, bcguelph - unless clicking on the "History" link above is giving erroneoous information to its users, maybe hubdub should settle this question according to their own provided info, LOL! They even quote the President, nice.

I just have to wonder why a few people here can think Spitzer did not resign, but by Google's account, 5,676 media outlets all got it wrong.

I think if you hand in your notice of resignation today, you resigned today. Effective date notwithstanding. As does every major news source, except hubdub.

I'm just glad they removed this question from the frontpage of the website. It was embarrassing to think newcomers would see that hubdub users feel there is a 62% chance that Spitzer did actually not resign today, as they watch the news reports on tv and read the newspapers or websites saying the exact opposite.

Great, we know when it's effective. When did he tender that resignation? Dated March 12th...

The definition was already addressed around comment 118 or so.

He did give up by formal notification (2) today and will officially relinquish (3) the position on Monday.

So, void if both parts do not match? Never mind what the news reports or Spitzer himself says?

LOL

Oh, that article? That's not the first sentence, unfortunately, that's the byline. Here's the first sentence:

New York Governor Eliot Spitzer Resigns Effective Monday Amid Links to Prostitution Ring
Wednesday, March 12, 2008

NEW YORK — New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer resigned in disgrace Wednesday after getting caught in a call-girl scandal that shattered his corruption-fighting, straight-arrow image, saying: "I cannot allow my private failings to disrupt the people's work."
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,337108,00.html

Oh, I'm sorry, did the FOX News source you linked just say he resigned in disgrace WEDNESDAY and NOT Monday?

Hmmm No link. And not even a complete sentence to put it into context. Sounds pretty official to me.

hahaha belarusia, too funny. Yes, because everyone knows, throwing more money at the problem equals a solution, huh? ;-)

Actually, until just a few minutes ago, I didn't have ANY money left to add to this question, but of course, some other question I wagered on this week was just voided, which is getting pretty routine around here.

Anyway, I haven't added any money to this question, since I would expect that those wagers would be voided after Spitzer's 11:30 press conference this morning when he resigned, except some people keep throwing money into the question hoping still hoping he won't resign until Monday, despite what the news says.

akbeast - He did not tender his official resignation? hmmmm Any links to back that up?

Governor Spitzer Officially Resigns
March 12, 2008
New York governor Eliot Spitzer officially tendered his resignation today after being caught up in a high-end prostitution ring. Spitzer, who was governor for less than 15 months and had a profound effect on changes in the music industry, said his resignation is effective March 17.
http://www.fmqb.com/Article.asp?id=616533

By all accounts in the press, Spitzer resigned today, and apparently it's only this site here that didn't get the memo.

The question did not ask when he would resign his position, it asked when he would resign. He did - today. The position change takes effect Monday. Not a single person has posted a link stating otherwise - that he will resign on Monday. In fact, if you google it, the only reports were that he would resign Monday came BEFORE his official news conference this morning - all headlines AFTERWARDS state he resigned today.

If it settles in my favour, I will have made HD $235. No biggie, not even worried about how much I wagered, but I DO want to see questions on this site settled appropriately. This past week my experience has been much surprise at the number of questions I've seen voided due to reasons I just cannot figure out. I was hoping this would not also turn out to be another example.

Still waiting for those links....

I did READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE which is why I posted the links for them. I am trying to find something, ANYTHING, to link that states otherwise! Until then, I keep reading over and over (IN THE WHOLE ARTICLES) about how he resigned Wednesday and it's effective Monday.

And no matter how many times I READ THE WHOLE ARTICLES it never changes from HE RESIGNED WEDNESDAY.

Thus, I asked for other links to compare. But hey, if there aren't any, I'll understand.

All over hubdub we see this familiar statement:

Settlement rules: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Why no links to major news sources indicated he has NOT resigned yet? hmmm
I want to see it in writing somewhere other than the personal opinions expressed here in this comment section.

If it isn't going to be settled by a news source, but rather by personal opinion, then maybe HD should reconsider their "world's news forecaster" slogan...

Spitzer Resigns, Citing Personal Failings
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Published: March 12, 2008

"Gov. Eliot Spitzer, whose rise to political power as a fierce enforcer of ethics in public life was undone by revelations of his own involvement with prostitutes, resigned on Wednesday, becoming the first New York governor to leave office amid scandal in nearly a century.

The resignation will be effective on Monday, and Lt. Gov. David A. Paterson will be sworn in to replace him."

If hubdub is going to make settlements based on major news sources and settle this as a 'No' , then someone needs to tell the NY Times they don't know what they are talking about. It clearly states, resigned today, to be effective Monday.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/nyregion/12cnd-resign.html?bl&ex=1205467200&en=823faf9a1e1c976c&ei=5087

You are right, can't dispute that.

The NY Times says he resigned on Wednesday, and the resignation will be effective on Monday. I can't dispute that, either, and that to me, simply and clearly answers this question according to a major news source.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/nyregion/12cnd-resign.html?bl&ex=1205467200&en=823faf9a1e1c976c&ei=5087

belarusia - And he never said "I will resign on Monday", either. Else I think he would've waited until Monday to say anything if that's what his intention was. Why choose today?

Steph has already provided an example of resigning to mean "to give up" or "to relinquish".

Personally, I think as of his news conference this morning, he has quit his job as Governor and relinquished the position to David Paterson, with an effective date of transferrance of title on Monday, but nonetheless, effectively having resigned today, asnwering the question posed here.

Otherwise, how do you explain the hundreds of incorrect headlines being published as we speak?

lol Steph

hmmmm indeed.

Those analogies are not helping prove your point. If in fact Spitzer had resigned before giving a press conference, then he would have said resigned, past tense. He had not resigned yet, and thus did not phrase it that way. Does not mean that when he did say I am resigning that his intention was not to resign now, however. No one here is arguing that Spitzer meant to say "I resigned" during his speech.

Though we are quoting news sources now, however, which indicate that by the time the press conference was over, he had in fact resigned.

Right, because he cannot stand in front of a camera and say "I resigned from the office of Governor" before he actually does it! His quote is admitting what he IS DOING now, not what he already did, since it had not taken place yet.

Semantics.

"To argue that Spitzer has resigned, one must answer this question: Who is governor of New York? It is not David Patterson, just as the person elected in November will not be president until January."

So you are saying that when we have elections in November, the person with the most votes doesn't actually win until January? No, in fact they were elected in November, with the title/position becoming effective in January.

Spitzer resigned today, Paterson will be Governor effective Monday.

I can't believe every major news source, except for hubdub, got this one wrong, then.

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=wn&q=spitzer+resigns

You would think AFTER his press conference, at least ONE of them would've gotten it right and said he will resign on Monday.

How did he fool so many journalists and respected news sources into saying he resigned today?? Impressive.

The question does not state when will he transition the power over to David Paterson, or how much longer he will remain governor after resigning.

The definition of resignation is: the act of resigning; formal notice of this
(http://www.yourdictionary.com/resignation)

If anyone is able to post a link to a major news source with a headline stating something to the effect that "Spitzer will Resign on Monday", I'd definitely be willing to consider that as a possible outcome. Unfortunately, all I can find today is "Spitzer Resigns", which I thought would answer the question.

Oh, isn't he the one who resigned? And later changed his mind? I didn't realize we were wagering on that prediction. So, if Spitzer changes his mind, then we can worry about that later, right?

I've noticed these HD questions are getting more and more difficult to interpret, and is definitely losing its appeal, especially with the number I've wagered on being voided this past week for reasons I'll never understand.

Anyway, I agree with Chris - you hand in a two week's notice and your boss accepts your resignation, right? Just because the transfer of power hasn't taken place, doesn't mean you didn't resign.

(LA Times - "Eliot Spitzer, the uncaped crusader who built a political career out of taking on all manner of legal miscreants, just resigned, effective Monday, as governor of New York ...") ALL major news sources are saying he resigned today... and it will be effective later. The question asked when will he resign, not when it will be effective.

When you have every major news source indicating Spitzer resigned today, it just feels weird that HD interprets it differently, when this is a news-based site.

I would be very surprised to see the NY Times, Washington Post, etc. run the same "Spitzer Resigns" type of headlines on Monday, that they are running today.

If we cannot base our predictions on what news sources report, what's the point?

It will be painful to see all the wrong news headlines indicating he resigned today, when HD tells us differently.

Just seems like resigning is one thing, transition of power is another. He resigned today, formally gives up power on Monday.

Washington Post says:

New York Democratic Gov. Eliot Spitzer resigned from office moments ago, just two days after revelations surfaced about his involvement in a prostitution ring.

"I am deeply sorry I did not live up to what was expected of me," Spitzer said at a news conference at his Manhattan office. "For this reason I am resigning from the office of governor."

Spitzer will be succeeded by Lt. Gov. David A. Paterson, a Harlem Democrat. Paterson, who is legally blind, will become New York's first African American governor. The transfer of power will take place next Monday, at Paterson's request.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/03/spitzer_resigns.html

So much for being settled by major news sources, then.

REUTERS new service also says he RESIGNED today:

New York Gov. Spitzer resigns amid sex scandal
Wed Mar 12, 2008 12:04pm EDT
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer resigned on Wednesday amid a scandal over a $1,000-an-hour prostitute, cutting short a career built on pugnacious investigations of Wall Street crimes."
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1062947520080312

NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer resigns
1 minute ago

NEW YORK - Gov. Eliot Spitzer, mired in allegations he was a client of a high-priced prostitution ring, resigned from office Wednesday, saying "I cannot allow my private failings to disrupt the people's work."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080312/ap_on_re_us/spitzer_prostitution

I realize this is getting ahead of things, but I like how most articles say:

"Gov. Eliot Spitzer, reeling from revelations that he had been a client of a prostitution ring, will resign today, some of his staff members said they have been told.

Mr. Spitzer is scheduled to speak today at 11:30 a.m. at his Manhattan office, and the resignation is to be effective Monday, aides to the governor said."

So, it seems as if major news sources feel he can resign today and have it be effective Monday, which would then mean today is not just an announcement, but an actual resignation?

Will be interesting to see how this gets interpreted. :-)

Thanks for the prompt clarification... Yeah, I was thinking in PST terms, until I looked at the Al Jazeera website and noticed they have the date across the top so wasn't sure if that was the case or not.

And I wasn't trying to be too picky about the wording regarding "story" it's just that I've been seeing almost every other question I answer this past week get voided and didn't want to jinx anything for your question. ;-)

1. Thursday March 13, 2008 - using the date stamp on their website? (Mecca and GMT)
2. Are there ever any stories on the front page of Al Jazeera? Or are you referring to pictures with headlines as "a picture and story"?

A settlement on this would be appreciated...

Right - there's that word "tribes" again... There are no more TRIBES of Fans and Favourites... doesn't mean they aren't still fans or favourites! The tribes just aren't separated into Fan Tribe vs Favourite Tribe. It's strictly Airai and Malakal tribes, composed of fans and favourites.

If you had quoted just a little bit further, you would see: "...with their tribe split evenly between four Favorites and four Fans, it was clear that either a Fan or a Favorite would have to flip."

In fact, the whole article you quoted from (<a href="http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor16/recaps/1605/index.php?viewall=yes">this episode's recap</a>) continues to call them Fans or Favourites. Too many examples to list...

I am going to guess the question was worded as such for the specific reason that previews showed tribes were going to be mixed up and the way it is worded currently prevents any confusion about which tribe a fan or a favourite may be a part of.

That's why the question breaks it down and asks will a fan/favourite male/female be eliminated.

I am confused. And I do not think this question needs to be voided, or exactly what tisha's comment refers to.

Why does the discussion about who is on which "tribe" need to become an issue??

The question is: "WHO will be voted off the next episode of Survivor? Fan/Favorite-Male/Female?"

That does not ask anything about a tribe in my opinion.

For example, as far as I know, none of the male favourites who were brought back from previous seasons will suddenly become a male fan just because the tribes might get integrated.

In fact, there is already a hubdub question about the tribes and this would have been removed for being redundant, if it was asking which tribe loses a member.

See: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Survivor_Which_Tribe_Will_Have_a_Member_Voted_Off_in_Episode_5_of_Survivor__Micronesia_3416

Agreed.

Yeah, Christian won. This needs to be reviewed!

But if there are "30 plus" reported on that one settlement link provided alone, even if there were not any reports of 2.5 or greater anywhere else in the world, the answer is still "30 plus" correct?

Kobe - 52pts
Dirk - 30 pts

Dear DJIA,
Please rally?
kkthnxbye.

Definitely appreciate the questions, bayou! Thanks!

12,694.28? Sigh.

Six mere points away from being a billionaire.

I love me a good rally, but wouldn't mind if this one picked up just a bit more, lol.

Indexes shed gains after housing-related rally
Wednesday February 27, 2:33 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks turned slightly lower on Wednesday afternoon after earlier gains on news of the lifting of lending caps for mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac proved short-lived.

Gonna be one of those last few minutes of the day rally sort of days?

Stocks Rise As Regulator Lifts Caps on Fannie, Freddie; Bernanke Comments Please Investors
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080227/wall_street.html

Wow! Congrats on breaking 250k, dude! Makes my 10k and 74th ranking feel rather lame, heh.

hahaha skipper!! Pretty much my sentiments exactly. I almost tried it, but then the mathematical possibilities boggled my mind and I just couldn't do it. It's at 50-50 right now, which is kinda what I would expect it to end up at. (And no, don't feel the need to make a Yes/No question asking if this one will end up 50-50, lol)

Tricky suspense date for this question... I would've thought maybe one more day might still be teasing enough.

I wonder if "DJIA" might be a better keyword than 'Dow' for this type of question? Should be picking up news about the Fed signalling a rate cut today, for example...

I don't think I would feel right to wager on a question in which I have a direct influence on the results - or at least a direct influence on the opposite result of my prediction.

I don't know about the 'cannot be gamed' part - you might not be able to game this question in your OWN favour, but if you were trying to wager on some other hubdub question like will someone be in the top ten or have a certain amount of HD by a certain point, you could have them wager one way on this question and then wager a large enough amount to skew the percentage just before settlement to help them out, right? Just wondering.

Thanks for the update, swilson...

Also, checking the Mega Millions webpage, they show the jackpot as being only 12 million for the net drawing on 2/26.
http://www.megamillions.com/

Oh wow, I just realized that, too!

no kidding, lol

hehe does that work? maybe I should try it..
rally, rally, rally!!

Well, you'll be able to hear about the debate all over the news tomorrow, but there won't be as much discussion regarding what you will have missed on Survivor. ;-)

Which time zone? 9:30pm PST Wed is Thurs EST, right?

I thought the original question asked ".. by the 20th of Feb.." or something similar, but now specifically states Tues, 19th Feb by 22.00 PST? Do people go in and further clarify questions after predictions have already been submitted? Seems like I've noticed subtle, yet substantial changes like that before on other questions, hmmm.

Anyway, settlement is showing first Yes, and now, No?

I am guessing this was a no?

"Jumper" leaps to top of North American box office
Sunday February 17 2:56 PM ET
http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20080217/120328900900.html

In an unprecedented strategy, all four newcomers opened on Thursday -- a day earlier than usual -- in hopes of pulling in some Valentine's Day business from couples. Including Thursday sales, "Jumper" earned $33.9 million, "Step Up 2 the Streets" $26.3 million, "The Spiderwick Chronicles" $21.5 million and "Definitely, Maybe" $12.8 million.

I am hoping that's what it means, as that's what I interpreted it to mean when I initially wagered on it... Although since that time, I've been noticing that's not always the case for some of these questions on hubdub, so it's hard to say. I definitely see a need for more specifics on how some questions will be settled, and this might be a good example, as it does appear too open ended.

"Therefore the question is if either she, her husband or a representative will confirm pregnancy by tomorrow." Actually, that's not what the settlement rules say. The settlement rules only list TWO options for making the determination: "her" or "Brad Pitt's rep". Does not include Angelina's representative or Brad Pitt himself confirming or denying.


Interesting. Because I think if the question had been presented with the settlement rules as: "Will Angeline Jolie's pregnancy be confirmed or denied by her or Brad Pitts rep before before February 15, 2008" then the percentage of Yes/No predictions would be very different. For example, if she is pregnant, and Angelina's own rep confirms it or Brad Pitt himself anounces it, then the answer will be settled as "No" since the settlement rules limit the confirmation or denial to her or Brad Pitt's rep?

Kinda defeats the purpose of the question. And I am thinking I need to cash out if it's going to be that restrictive.

The only question I see above is "Is Angelina Jolie pregnant?" with no further clarifications. So, seems to me if nothing is said to confirm one way or the other before the settlement date, this question should then be voided? We could find out the next day she is pregnant.

Need to remember to be more specific about categories than just "Sports" so the related news links show up...

Wow, not only did the question retroactively remove the winnings and deduct money, but now the question description has been changed after the fact to "Appearance at the US awards, Amy Winehouse - will she appear?" which means something entirely different from when I originally answered this one. I think in situations like this, the questions should be VOIDED if the settlement is going to keep changing so drastically. Or at least in the future keep a question open until the original settlement date so you do not have to go through something like this - and not allow people time to cash in, as that option was effectively negated for those who voted yes and thought we had gotten it correct due to settlement payment!

Not seeing any reports that the OxyContin was not prescribed to him, but even if it wasn't, it's a prescribed medication, not an illegal drug.

Doh! Wish I had seen these comments sooner! Did not realize it meant EXACTLY .25 basis points.
:-(