About me
I'm a neuroscience grad student with a side-interest in prediction markets and futarchy (government by prediction markets)Friends
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Net worth: H$24,888
Predictions made: 461
male, from Pasadena, United States. Member since Tue 29th Jul
Questions created
neuronexmachina created these questions.
Open questions
13 predictors (1 day)
How many Supreme Court justices will be appointed during the next presidential term (ending 2013)?
Current forecast: Three (36% chance)
16 predictors (1 day)
What will be the next US launch vehicle to send humans into orbit?
Current forecast: NASA's Ares series (30% chance)
46 predictors (1 day)
Who will land the next human on the Moon?
Current forecast: Chinese government (46% chance)
2 predictors (1 day)
How many successful launches will SpaceX have by the end of 2014?
Current forecast: 23-35 (16% chance)
12 predictors (1 day)
Will NASA cancel the Ares I rocket by the end of 2009?
Current forecast: No announcement prior to end of 2009 (35% chance)
7 predictors (1 day)
How many successful launches will SpaceX have by the end of 2009?
Current forecast: 4 (12% chance)
40 predictors (1 day)
How many in the US will die in terrorist attacks during President Obama's first term?
Current forecast: Less than 10 deaths (29% chance)
7 predictors (1 day)
Will James Randi's One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge be successfully claimed?
Current forecast: 6% chance
94 predictors (1 day)
What will President Obama's approval rating be after his first 100 days in office?
Current forecast: 70-79% (42% chance)
7 predictors (1 day)
What will be the outcome of Justin Sharatt's slander lawsuit against Rep. John Murtha?
Current forecast: Lawsuit is settled with monetary compensation (48% chance)
211 predictors (1 day)
Who will be President Obama's Secretary of Defense?
Current forecast: Robert Gates (current Secretary of Defense) (86% chance)
10 predictors (1 day)
Will the "Fairness Doctrine" be reimposed during Obama's first term?
Current forecast: 48% chance
35 predictors (1 day)
Will Hillary Clinton become the Senate Majority Leader by the end of January 2009?
Current forecast: 7% chanceSettled questions
31 predictors (1 day)
Will rumors that Sarah Palin is a grandmother be confirmed by the November election?
Settled as No
32 predictors (1 day)
Will Sarah Palin make a trip to Iraq or Afghanistan before the November election?
Settled as Neither
99 predictors (1 day)
Will Governor Sarah Palin play Tina Fey on Saturday Night Live before the November election?
Settled as No
27 predictors (1 day)
Will India's Chandrayaan-1 probe successfully send data from lunar orbit?
Settled as Yes
91 predictors (1 day)
Which Presidential/VP debate will have the most television viewers?
Settled as Vice Presidential debate
10 predictors (1 day)
Will Armadillo Aerospace win Level 2 of the Lunar Lander Challenge this weekend?
Settled as No
16 predictors (1 day)
Will Gallup's traditional or expanded poll model be more accurate?
Settled as TieVoid questions
33 predictors (1 day)
If McCain is elected, how many in the US will die in terrorist attacks during his first term?
Voided
25 predictors (1 day)
If McCain is elected, what will his approval rating be after his first 100 days in office?
Voided
25 predictors (1 day)
According to CNN's post-debate poll, will more Democrats or Republicans watch the VP debate?
Voided
6 predictors (1 day)
