newswrangler

For some reason "previously gored runners don't count" comes to mind ...

The suspect flags photo that accompanies the CNN story sure don't look like 'trashed flags' !

(maybe it's time for another question, "Will the "DNC American Flag 'story' turn out to be not true?")

In response to the accusations, DNC spokeswoman Karren Finney released the following statement:

"American flags were proudly waved by the 75,000 people who joined Barack Obama at the Democratic Convention. John McCain should applaud that, but instead his supporters wrongfully took leftover bundles of our flags from the stadium to play a cheap political stunt calling into question our patriotism. On the same day he agrees to join Barack Obama at Ground Zero on September 11, John McCain attacks the patriotism of Obama supporters who so proudly waved the American flag at our historic event in Denver just days ago."

<http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/06/mccain-camp-uses-discarded-obama-flags/>
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Maybe ask if Sarah Palin will be asked, and respond to, a specific question ... could be along the line of <http://www.hubdub.com/m14245/Will_Vice_Presidential_Nominee_Joe_Biden_Respond_to_Plagiarism_Questions>

...but it could also be in a different format. One could create separate markets for specific questions (that would include background on why it's a relevant question).
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Oprah has already publicly stated she won't have candidates as guests before the election. Accordingly starting odds are off for that option.

What would have been a surprise to me would be if the 10:00PM - 11:00PM time slot on NBC did not rate higher than last week!

NBC carried the NFL Season opener (NY Giants against the Washington Redskins) last night, and that coverage spilled over into the NBC 10:00 - 11:00PM time period (only the NBC ratings for that time slot settles this question).

It will be interesting to see what the actual final ratings are for both speeches!

My prediction is that New England will win the game, but the point-spread is too high, thus H$ goes on Kansas City ;-)

Found the article: "Odds are Vegas not pleased"

"...Patriots' 2-7 record vs. the spread in their last nine games. [last season]

"Actually, the Patriots all season long have been a thorn in our side," Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton, said. "It's a team we just cannot figure out. We took it in the shorts for pretty much two-thirds of the season."

<http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2008/01/24/odds_are_vegas_not_pleased/?page=1>
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Many people would pick New England to win that game, but do the same number think they'll win by 16.5?

Heh ... I read an article sometime last year, about "Why Las Vegas Hates the Patriots"... as I recall, although New England was consistently winning, Vegas sports books were consistently losing because the Patriots didn't hit the point spread. Guess the only way a New England fan could win a bet in Vegas was to bet against them!

Ideally, point-spread questions on HD would have the vig backed out ;-)

Not surprising however -- as was mentioned in the comments for this 'related' question, <http://www.hubdub.com/m15280/RNC_Will_Sarah_Palins_speech_draw_more_TV_viewers_than_John_McCains>, NBC carried the NFL Season opener (NY Giants against the Washington Redskins) last night, and that coverage spilled over into the NBC 10:00 - 11:00PM time period -- which is specifically what settles this question.

I predicted McCain would beat out the Palin in the other question, but this question suspended back in August, otherwise a bet on "McCain" would have likely been a sure winner.

Nielsen can flesh out which candidate had the most viewers -- which would be interesting to know (but that data wouldn't settle this market).

Continental Airlines Announces Fee for First Checked Bag on Domestic Flights

"HOUSTON, Sept. 5 -- Continental Airlines today announced a $15 service fee for the first checked bag..."

<http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/continental-airlines-announces-fee-for-first-checked-bag-on-domestic-flights,529250.shtml>

Whatever happened to good-old-fashioned horse sense?

What ironman288 said.

Heh -- Sanders was sentenced to 50 hours of community service -- with the Office of Hennepin County Elections. ;-)

AFAIK, this cannot legally be done.

What yonemoto said.

Hmmmm ... no questions about "faked birth certificates" yet.

Easter Egg: Type "about:internets" into the Omnibox.

Wowza! If this weren't Texas (or a couple of other states) this would be a no-brainer!

This question has been clarified this afternoon by a category editor. Hopefully the clarification will soon be added to the Settlement Details.

"Turks and Caicos are part of Caribbean"

The category editor has clarified the settlement details today for this question:

"The Auction company uses a buyers commission fee which will be counted on top of the sold price"

Heh ... some friends of mine had two girls. They wanted a boy, so they 'went for it'. Had another girl.
"Well, what are the chances...", they asked... and planned for yet another. Girl !

With four girls, they rolled the dice, and had a boy!

"Wouldn't it be nice for baby 'John' to have a brother to play with", they said, and 'went again'.

Bingo! Another girl!

End of story ;-)

Yeah -- I misspoke. I ought to have said the NFL previously agreed to move-up the kickoff (not delay).

"At NBC's request, the NFL agreed earlier this year to move tonight's season opener from 8:30 p.m. to 7 p.m. because of the potential convention overlap, said Greg Aiello, a spokesman for the league.

"Aiello said the average game last season lasted 3 hours and 3 minutes, a duration that would leave give McCain plenty of time to speak in prime time.

"McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker said yesterday the prospect of an extra-long game has caused some concern: "I had talked on background with a Republican convention planner a couple of weeks ago who said, 'Don't mention overtime. Overtime is our rain-in-Denver scenario.' "

"NBC is contractually obligated to carry the NFL game until its conclusion. It plans to switch immediately to the convention once the game is over."

<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090303255.html?hpid=topnews>

Yes, but the NFL agreed to delay the kickoff to enable viewers to watch both.

That still presumes the RNC can manage it's prime time schedule... as the NFL isn't gonna wait beyond what they already agreed to (according to published reports).

I don't disagree with any of the above comments -- and, at the end of the day, I made my prediction on "no".

I think this was an excellent question!

This market was re-opened today by a category editor.

Reason: "Recent attack does not appear to involve any Pakistani permission."

@ curios -- thanks. I read the link that you sent.

Please know that my responsibilities on this site are very limited in scope.

What I saw was two questions that asked about "September" RBA interest rates, and as there had already been a rate cut (the day before) in September, I "suspended" the questions to give the category editor for the "Business Category" time to review the questions.

It may have been that you meant for the questions to ask about October -- I don't know. All I do is "look at what is in front of me" -- and (it's a judgment call) -- if a question looks like it may need some form of clarification, I may "suspend it", and a category editor picks up from there.

I do not have the authority, nor the functionality (ability) to either "un-suspend" (reinstall), or edit a question, nor can I "void" a question, nor can I send an email to a question creator-- only a category editor can do that.

BTW, in the meantime, another RBA question was created for October, by a user who has also created other RBA questions in the past. I see that question is also now suspended by a category editor.
<http://www.hubdub.com/m15233/What_will_the_Reserve_Bank_of_Australia_do_with_the_official_cash_rate_in_October>

I hope this helps clarify the process ;-)
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@ dragonfangxl -- it isn't the first time someone didn't understand what I wrote/said ;-) (and I really appreciate your asking!)

The first paragraph is teasing/suggesting that there's a commercial, yet "un-commented about" by me, that I think might be the winner... but I wanted to give my cent-cent thoughts on the Coca-Cola commercial first.

The fourth paragraph depends on folks knowing the "history" of Charlie Brown and Lucy's relationship -- especially as it relates to the "football trick" that lasted for years. The quickest (shortest) and perhaps clearest read on it is found in good 'ole Wikipedia, under "History": <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_van_Pelt>

Once you read that, the "second to last paragraph" may make sense to you -- if you then go back and re-read all of the comment, and then watch the commercial again -- watching for that "two-second scene" ;-)

Obviously, folks don't have to "know the history of Charlie Brown and Lucy" in order to enjoy the commercial -- it's just that for those who do, there are, in my view, amazing subtle elements -- that make this an outstanding commercial!

^^^^^^^
Forgot the citation -- "People who like this sort of thing will find this the sort of thing they like"
-- Abraham Lincoln 1809-65: judgment of a book, in G. W. E. Russell Collections and Recollections (1898)

<http://www.askoxford.com/quotations/721?view=uk>
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@ pulloverthatasstoophat -- without praising nor burying Keith Olberman, he was repeating a (now famous) book review President Abraham Lincoln once gave, " "People who like this sort of thing will find this the sort of thing they like". (I heard the reference to Lincoln in his comment.)

"It wasn't her speech... it was her daughter's."

-- David Letterman

Breaking News -- Sarah Palin's video canceled at last minute.

(what was that about void rate? ;-)

Maybe they will show it later in the convention?

I think there's a "sleeper" within these videos that may likely win (with an opportunity for serious H$ as well) -- but first, some thoughts on the Coca-Cola commercial ;-)

No stranger to exceedingly high production values, Coca-Cola certainly has the budget to maintain those high production values... and this commercial is no exception!

Like others have commented, 'this commercial made me smile' .. but "why"?

After watching the commercial, I was happy that Charlie Brown "won" the Coke. What ran through my mind was all those many years when Lucy would promise, and promise, and promise not to pull the football away when Charlie Brown went to kick it, and every time when Charlie Brown went to kick the football, Lucy would move it :-(

So I was happy to see Charlie Brown win!

Then, after watching it a couple more times, I *noticed* the scene -- lasting only a couple of seconds -- that appeared just before Charlie Brown "secured" the bottle of Coke.

Who's in charge of what I think and feel? ;-)

@ htlsales -- to my read, the link you provided only refers to "politics" returning to the convention ... as they only conducted "required (boring) convention business" during the first day -- no "political speeches".

FYI, I predicted "yes" on this question ... but without link(s) to something, for example, that shows the time the convention was supposed to start, along with the time it did start, I'm not optimistic that this will settle as "yes".

This question has been unsuspended by a category editor.

"A sockeroo debut for the CW's '90210' "

Teen drama averages a 3.0 in target 18-34s

"The CW’s reboot of “Beverly Hills, 90210” earned loads of hype, and the ratings lived up to it. The new “90210” scored the best series premiere in network history and pushed the three-year-old channel to a rare primetime victory last night.

“ '90210' averaged a 3.0 in the CW’s target adults 18-34 and a 2.6 in 18-49s, according to Nielsen overnights, winning the night on both measures and tying for the highest-rated evening in network history in the latter. Among 18-34s, it was the network’s third-highest night ever.

“ '90210' became the CW’s highest-rated scripted series in history among those two demos and women 18-34, where it averaged a 4.3.

"It was also the highest-rated premiere in network history among 18-49s and the highest-rated scripted series premiere among the other demos, no small feat since the show was two hours long.

"Perhaps most promising for the CW, “90210” grew in virtually all the major demos from its first hour to its second, airing from 8 to 10 p.m., albeit by single-digit percentages. Among total viewers, the show averaged 4.9 million.

"The CW’s strategy of debuting its shows three weeks before the Big Three seems to be working thus far. Earlier this week, “Gossip Girl” and “One Tree Hill” also set a record for the highest-rated Monday in network history.

"Still, it will be a few weeks before it becomes clear if the strong initial results were simply sampling or if viewers will stick around."

<http://www.medialifemagazine.com/artman2/publish/Overnights_50/A_sockeroo_debut_for_the_CW_s_90210.asp>
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"As of now he has spoken in person at the RNC."

Do you mean he has not spoken at the RNC?

The suspend date for this market has been changed by a category editor:

Category Editor Clarification
The suspend date has been moved til the election. If he campaigns with him before then it will suspend/settle then. This market asks about an event and not whether that event will occur by a particular time, and because it is event based, suspend date can be moved without effecting market.

@ robbuerkle -- "Did it start on time? No."

Do you have a link to a news article that states (shows) that? If so, that might put part of this debate to rest.

@ curios -- you may very well be correct, and if the category editor agrees with you, your question will be unsuspended very quickly. I appreciate your questions!

"Will it be reported that Bristol Palin visited Gloucester, Massachusetts, within the past year?"

<http://www.hubdub.com/m9756/Will_any_prospective_parent_be_charged_with_a_crime_related_to_Massachusetts_pregnancy_pact>
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"Before her speech, the convention will be shown a video about her made by Sen. McCain's creative director, Fred Davis, narrated by actor Jon Voight." -- Wall Street Journal

"Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee who revealed Monday that her 17-year-old daughter is pregnant, earlier this year used her line-item veto to slash funding for a state program benefiting teen mothers in need of a place to live.

"Earlier today the Associated Press reported that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, opposed funding to prevent teen pregnancies, a position that Palin also took as governor. "The explicit sex-ed programs will not find my support," she wrote in a 2006 questionnaire distributed among gubernatorial candidates."

<http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/02/palin_slashed_funding_to_help.html?hpid=artslot>
.

Whaaaaat? You don't like Wilson? Is Spalding more to your liking? Olympia?

This market has been reopened by a category editor.

@ jamalpeter -- the "is this a duplicate question" prompt that a user sees as part of the 'create a new question process' isn't as good as it needs to be -- it doesn't always present all of the relevant questions. Hopefully this functionality will be improved soon ;-)

@ emmag -- the clarification that was added to the question, but not included here in the comment thread was, "Those exact words must be used to count".

@ randburg -- I flagged your comment and requested the category editor to respond to your question. If you get a response, please do post it here so Erik and all users will know.

hmm... ponders Jindal not being in any Republican primary against McCain.

@ onedave -- yeah, I know. I didn't know if you were asking, as referenced in comment #7, if Maui County would "count", or not. Apparently you weren't. ;-)

@ onedave -- to my read, this question asks, "...before July 25, 2009?"

The information I read in your link states, "...the Maui County Council on Friday passed Hawaii's first municipal ban on plastic shopping bags. The law takes effect in January 2011..."

Obama Maintains 6-Point Lead in today's settlement.

@ 101airborne -- dieseldog's "feeling" about "meeting a super user" was accurate ;-)

I suspended your question as the 2d and 3rd outcome options overlap -- that is, they both would settle as "yes" if the correct prediction was "4".

Many times corrections to the options can simply be made by a category editor -- however, if the duplicate #4 was just removed from the third option ("4-5"), then the resulting likelihood for the single result of "5" might not be accurate.

I confess, with so many hurricane stories, I don't know if a category 1-5 hurricane has hit Florida during 2008. If not, then this question would also need a "None" option -- otherwise it would be voided at settlement time if there weren't any category 1-5 hurricanes that hit Florida during 2008.

Let the category editor know what you would like to do, by sending a message via the "Flag for review" link, and/or, if you have questions about either editing or rewriting your question, feel free to post your questions here in the comment thread, and other users (super, terrific, outstanding ;-) will be happy to assist. (You can only use the "Flag for review" link once per question.)

Welcome to Hubdub!

@ tisha -- the best way to find out how a question will settle is to flag your request to the attention of a category editor, by clicking on the "Flag for review" link to the right of the prediction graph. This sends an email directly to the appropriate category editor.

I made my predictions based on my read of the question, and the background, as, "Will there be any reports of looting when or after Hurricane Gustav strikes?"

Which is why the option, "None of these clearly describe winning sport", is the appropriate winning prediction, in my view.

@ morgie -- do you have a link that shows the total? I took a look at CBS2, but could only find the map.

Two Olympians will appear on (separate) Wheaties cereal boxes.

Gymnast Nastia Liukin and decathlete Bryan Clay will get their own special edition Wheaties boxes, General Mills Inc. announced Thursday.

@infernalmachine -- thanks for the clarity!

I agree that there are no options for "is in hospital" on any of the other dates ... the problem with the earlier clarification was that it (incorrectly) introduced the status of "being in the hospital" on the same day of discharge ... when that status wasn't intended to apply to any of the options.

On the other hand, 99% of the wagers on this DOW question (for the same day) were correct when the winning outcome was virtually known.

What an interesting difference! Only 22% of the wagers were on the correct prediction on a DOW question that was suspended when the outcome was not virtually known.

@ valornhonor -- On February 5, 1997, a jury unanimously found Simpson liable for the death of his ex-wife and Ron Goldman.

@ thomismydad -- there is no reason to redo this question. I have flagged your requested edit to the attention of a category editor. While H$500 was wagered during the minute it took me to do that, those wagers can be voided if the user requests it, based on their understanding of the question before it is edited.

@ jenniandboys -- is it asking to be settled now?

I, too, think there would be exit polling on Election Day that would settle the question. If not, it could be voided then. This is one of the ultimate questions for a prediction market!

@ tarpash -- Good question!

The best way to get a category editor's attention to ask for a clarification like this is to hit the 'flag for review' link - the little icon next to the market graph. (At the current time you can only flag a market once.) It is also helpful to post your question here in the comments (as you have done) -- chances are that if you have the question, other users may as well!

The category editor has updated the Settlement Details as follows:

"Question will settle as "yes" if either Wellesley or their insurance agency announces that the painting has been found and is with no damage that would impact the overall value by October 1, 2008. As reported by a major mainstream news source or on the websites of the college or the insurance company."

Specific references to what a "no" settlement is are no longer included.

@ notablenotices -- The best way to get a category editor's attention to request an edit like this is to hit the 'flag for review' link - the little icon next to the market graph. (At the current time you can only flag a market once.) It's also helpful to post the correction here in the comments (as you have done) -- alerting other users to your intended text.

"If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 8th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 7th."

In my view, this clarification confuses the straight-forward intent of this question, and obfuscates accurate predictions by users.

Applying this "clarification" to all the other options, if a user believes the Dalai Lama will leave the hospital on September 4th, they would actually have to pick "September 3rd", as according to this clarification, "If Dalai Lama leaves hospital on September 4th, that means he would have to be in the hospital on that date to get discharged, otherwise he would have left on the 3rd".

Hubdub is not about "trick questions", nor questions that are not "clear and well-structured".

A simple edit to the last option would correct these problems: "After Sept 7th".

Adding clarifications to the actual "Settlement Details" would also make all clarifications easily available to all users -- especially new users.

Each were sentenced today to fourteen years’ incarceration for conspiracy to commit health care fraud.
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Wow! 99% winning predictions on this question, where the result is virtually known hours before the question closes.

I was impressed when I first saw it.

The blush soon came off the rose however, for releasing it early -- and, as you posted, it's already on YouTube.

Would sorta be like VISA releasing their "Congratulations, Michael, on winning eight gold medals" commercial early ...

McCain's "historic commercial" could have been a class act -- and historical. Instead it strikes me as hollow.

@ valornhonor -- the best way to have clarifications made to your question is to flag them to the attention of a category editor.

Including them here, in the comments, is also, in my view, a best practice, so that all users know about them. Hopefully, there will be a confirmation of the final clarifications soon.

The commercial has already been shown on multiple broadcast outlets.

This question was resettled today by a category editor:

"The 41st medal appeared to be won on the 22nd. After further discussion, the question will re-settle with cut off time being on the 21st."

Great question !

@ jenniandboys -- thanks for the clarification.

The clarified settlement details now read, in part, "A color on color tie (i.e. Silver with Silver stripes) would settle as patterned"

Should that be ... "Silver with Silver stripes will settle as "striped" ... and 'silver on silver pattern would settle as "patterned" ' ?

[flagged]

@ akkie -- the above link, showing a 2.3% drop, is for the Rightmove index for August 18, 2008.

The results for the Rightmove index on August 28, 2008, shows a decline of less than 2% (-1.9%) during August, when compared to July.

<http://nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Aug_2008.pdf>.

@ notablenotices -- I sent a flag about this (comment #1) more than 24 hours ago, trying to get clarification. Since then other comments have been posted with views by users. I haven't had a response yet to my flag, nor has there been a clarification in the comments.

Settlement details now say: "Question will settle as "yes" if either Wellesley or their insurance agency announces that the painting has been found and is irreparably undamaged by October 1, 2008"

I believe the original Settlement Details said, words to the effect of, "Question will settle as "yes" if either Wellesley or their insurance agency announces that the painting has been found OR ... something about "found/recovered but reasonably damaged" by October 1, 2008."

With this edit/clarification, in order to settle as "yes", the painting (1) has to be found AND (2) has to be "irreparably undamaged".

I do not know what "irreparably undamaged" means, as opposed to "not damaged".

In my view, the intent of the question was to settle as "yes" if the painting was found/recovered -- even if it was damaged.

[flagged]

"A category editor will make official clarification in the settlement details. All users should read the settlement details before wagering on a market."

As stated in comment #7, the Settlement Details for this market do not contain any clarification as to the Settlement Date.

In my view, users reasonably made predictions based on reading (1) the question; (2) the market background; (3) the settlement details; and (4) the comment from the creator of the question, who stated in comment #3, "Yes suspend time is also settlement time.".

There were no clarifications to the contrary in the Settlement Details, and accordingly, in my view, this question should settle at the end of today, August 27, 2008.

Would a silver tie, with a silver pattern to it (silver on silver) settle as "A pattern other than striped or solid".

And would a silver tie, with one silver stripe (silver on silver) settle as "Striped"?

The suspend time has been changed to 2:45PM Denver Time, 4:45PM Eastern Time, by a category editor.

Unfortunately, this decision allows only 20 minutes for any members who may wish to change their predictions.

The 12-hour window on "frozen predictions" will be over at 4:25pm EDT.

Note: According to the edited settlement details:, if this eviction occurs during 2008, this market will settle as "No".

@ laaleelaalee -- in comment #3, you wrote: "Yes suspend time is also settlement time."

What is confusing about that?

As the "suspend time" was today (8:00AM EDT), how is the "settlement time" anything but today?

I agree that this question ought be settled at the end of today's session of the DNC -- which would be after Vice Presidential Nominee, Joe Biden, speaks.

As has been pointed out, this was what the question creator, laaleelaalee, stated in response to the question asked in comment #1.

In my view, significant clarifications by category editors ought be publicly made in the comments thread -- especially when questions are asked and answered in the comments thread. They also ought be made in the Settlement Details -- if not the market background. In my view, category editors ought not go against the wishes of the question creator, when those wishes do not compromise the integrity of the question.

To only make clarifications in 9pt type, buried in the "action details" of the question, is not fair to users.

The Suspend Time for this question needs to be changed to 3:00PM Denver Time, 5:00PM Eastern Time, as the vote itself may begin before the existing suspend time for this question.

The "12-hour window" will be over at 4:25PM EDT -- allowing those who have made predictions the opportunity to change them, and/or cash out positions.

@ chett -- if you have a settlement link, send it in via the "Request Settlement" link.

You have now edited the text of the market background to read: "The market refers to the head of the conspiracy, the Father".

Multiple mainstream media reports refer to the "brother" as the "main accused". There are no reports, that I have seen, that refer to the 69-year-old father (on social security) as the "head of the conspiracy".

In my view, you are substituting your interpretation/understanding for that of numerous published reports.

"drug users made rants" ... no credible threats... no "legal" threats
insufficient to say threats were "operational"

News confrence is streaming live:

<http://www.9news.com/video/player_live_16x9.aspx>

"Plot" is not confirmed .... charges don't rise to a "Federal level"...

I so wish you would!

"Head" may likely refer to the "clan" ... which was the "head" of ... "a massive network that became one of the main heroin suppliers for western Europe. This would be similar to the usage of the term, "family" in organized crime in the US, and other places.

" 'It [clan] has been one of the principle suppliers of heroin in western Europe since the middle of the 90s,' the prosecution statement added."

Additionally, to my read, the defendant facing the more serious charges is one of the two brothers -- not the "father".

"The main accused, a 42-year-old Kosovan, was arrested in Macedonia on August 2, 2003, and extradited to Switzerland.

"He is charged with participation in a criminal organisation, drug trafficking and money laundering.

"One of his brothers, aged 28, and his 69-year-old father, who before his arrest lived on social security in Kuenzelsau in Germany, have been charged with involvement in a criminal organisation." Accordingly, it would seem likely that, if found guilty, there may be different sentences for the different charges.

<http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=24&art_id=nw20080818131158654C618397>
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Why couldn't this question settle, while this one settled as "1" ?

<http://www.hubdub.com/m12849/How_many_typhoons_will_hit_the_Olympics>

Why did this question settle as "1", and this question couldn't be settled?

<http://www.hubdub.com/m12705/Will_a_typhoon_make_landfall_in_China_during_the_Olympic_Games>

I really like reading about the movie "mistakes", and used to be an active participant in these markets.

I did stop making predictions in these markets, after weeks would go by without a single entry, and then -- on the very last day -- several entries would be posted that would move the prediction to the next category.

Several times, entries have been posted on these (different) questions, and then a day or more later, they were deleted (I presume by a "moderator".) Accordingly, it would be possible to have different "winning predictions" on the same settlement date -- depending upon the time of day.

I'm in favor of earlier suspend times on virtually all questions, however an earlier suspend time wouldn't have any effect on the activity I've described.

@ pitchedoutsideleg -- one source is here:
<http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KWASEATT92&graphspan=custom&month=1&day=1&year=2008&monthend=8&dayend=26&yearend=2008>

I show 15.38 inches of precipitation so far, for 2008.

@ orlin -- as you well know, the way to get a question corrected is to flag it with the correction. Adding it to the comments is also good to alert users, but doesn't get the question changed as fast as it could be by flagging.

Only 99% of the predictions were correct on this market that suspends 15 min before the result is known!

Go figure!

This market has been resettled by a category editor, with "26 athletes or more" as the winning prediction.

@ infernalmachine -- if you're asking for clarification from a category editor, in addition to asking in the comment thread, you ought send a flag via the "Flag for review" link. That will send an email directly to the appropriate category editor.

@ infernalmachine -- if you're asking for clarification about "acts of war", etc., from a category editor, in addition to asking in the comment thread, you ought send a flag via the "Flag for review" link. That will send an email directly to the appropriate category editor.

This market has been resettled by the category editor.

@ infernalmachine -- if you're asking for clarification from a category editor, in addition to asking in the comment thread, you ought send a flag via the "Flag for review" link. That will send an email directly to the appropriate category editor.

hmmm ... for £6.99 one can purchase their very own INSTANT NUN KIT !

<http://www.mr-bens.co.uk/p59512/INSTANT-NUN-KIT.html>

Seems like expectations may be falling ...

The idea of organising a beauty pageant had been pushed by the nuns themselves, he said, adding he expected roughly 1,000 candidates. -- AP 8 hours ago

<http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jY7xdCTni2Jyq2Zfh1e6VGNVLmYA>

Rungi said the idea was first suggested to him by nuns with whom he regularly prays and works. He hopes there will be dozens of submissions once the Web site is started. -- AP 4 hours ago

<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gPJtWK3gasmyYhL3ytjNCb55xgnQD92OR0680>

This question has been reopened by a category editor.

@ rogerkni -- how would your proposed question settle if there were multiple outcomes?

Here are some responses Senator Biden's campaign gave at the time:

"Biden's office said the senator admires, supports and respects the Indian-American community — and also sought to explain his gaffe.

" 'The point Sen. Biden was making is that there has been a vibrant Indian-American community in Delaware for decades. It has primarily been made up of engineers, scientists and physicians, but more recently, middle-class families are moving into Delaware and purchasing family-run small businesses,' said Margaret Aitken, a Biden spokeswoman.

" 'These families have greatly contributed to the vibrancy of the Indian-American community in Delaware and are making a significant contribution to the national economy as well,' she said.

"Earlier Friday on MSNBC, Biden added, 'It was meant as a compliment.'

"Supriya Christopher, executive director for the bipartisan U.S.-India Political Action Committee (USINPAC), tells CBSNews.com that Biden's comments were taken out of context and she did not consider them derogatory or racially charged.

"Christopher dismissed blaming Biden's poorly-received comments on his speaking style.

" 'For anybody who's been in office that long, I'd hope he'd speak extemporaneously,' she said."

<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/07/politics/main1785303.shtml>

"The American flag bearer in the closing ceremony will be Khatuna Lorig, an archer who has represented three countries in her Olympic career: the former Soviet Union in 1992, Georgia in 1996 and 2000, and the United States in 2008. Lorig, 34, who was chosen by fellow athletes, was born in Tbilisi, Georgia, and immigrated to the United States in 1995, but did not get her citizenship in time to compete for the U.S. in 2000 or 2004. Her parents still live in Georgia, where Russian forces have been battling Georgian troops in the breakaway province of South Ossetia."

<http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/olympics/2008135035_olyclosing24.html>

Excellent question!

Queen Elizabeth II has invited Britain's Olympians to a drinks reception at Buckingham Palace on October 16 after a royal spokeswoman said the monarch had been taking "a keen interest" in the games. -- according to published news reports.

Both the Associated Press and CNN report Senator Joe Biden has been selected as Obama's Vice President nominee.

<http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-joe-biden-vice-president-barack-obama,0,4044104.story>

Changing the definitions of the options on this question has significantly changed the intent of my prediction in this market. The original option (#2) was "cut a hole in the side of the house". My prediction was made on option 3, thinking that the original "option 2" would NOT happen.

Accordingly, please void my individual prediction. (flagged)

Gee! -- 95% "winning predictions" on a question where the outcome is virtually known. Good job.

Another day of 98% winning predictions on a question where the winning outcome is virtually known!

This market has been re-settled by the category editor:

"After overlooking the market again with other admins the argument as to why no jail time, just fined should be used as settlement makes more sense. The employee did receive a fine and got no jail time so it's clear that option 2 does fit into settlement perfectly. The problem came with me arbitrarily using punishment in my thinking of the market. Sorry for the confusion here."

Olympic beach volleyball gold medalists Kerri Walsh and Misty May-Treanor will appear on the Late Show with David Letterman, on Wednesday, August 27th, on CBS.

Many people are sentenced to both "jail and probation". Including "probation as "punishment" is not what this question ever asked ...

The market background stated, "Snyder faces up to one year in jail and a $250,000 fine when he is sentenced on Aug. 20."

There was a clear option created for this market, "No jail time, just fined", that was satisfied by the decision of the court.

Yes! Affirmative! Done! Thumbs-Up! Fired!

"Dr. Bill Shanahan, assistant professor of communication studies and coach of the debate program at Fort Hays State, violated the faculty code of ethics, university officials this morning said at the conclusion of their investigation."

<http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08235/906283-100.stm>

@ dieseldog -- "Other" would only be a winning prediction if the court's decision didn't fit any of the listed options. You'll only need a very small container of popcorn, me-thinks ;-)

@ dieseldog -- the settlement link you provided contains this:

"A former Internal Revenue Service employee who snooped into athletes' and celebrities' tax records will serve no time in jail.

"U.S. Magistrate Judge Gregory Wehrman ... sentenced Snyder to probation and ordered him to pay a $1,000 fine."

The correct settlement, in my view, perfectly fits the decision of the court: "No jail time, just fined".

There was no "out of court settlement"; it was not "dismissed"; and there was no "Other".

I lost on the incorrect settlement, however I anticipate "change" (I can believe in ;-)

As I read the Hubdub rules, in order for this to settle as "Yes" any acquisition or merger would have to be completed by December 31, 2008 -- an announcement would be insufficient.

"2.3.3.4 Business Category

* Unless otherwise specified, questions asking whether company X will be acquired (or merge with company Y) by date Z will be settled on completion of the deal, not on announcement."

This question was, in my view, incorrectly settled. (flagged)

Here's a salute to pics4d -- who created this question!

@ dieseldog -- I betcha Destry "has a little list" of all the related questions ...
There's also a (small) army of admins and super-users who can suspend questions ;-)

@ mrperfkt -- when I do a hard refresh on that page, I still get "Aug 7th"

When I go to "Records" <http://results.beijing2008.cn/WRM/ENG/REC/index.shtml> the page is dated today, August 19, 2008.

Clicking on the link "Swimming" still takes me to "Aug 7th".

@ onedave -- see comment #20 (and add six days to what was said there ;-)

@ robnation82 -- Welcome to Hubdub, and great to see you created a question on your first day!!!

The question, as presented, likely cannot be objectively settled -- as the outcomes you listed aren't specific (or definitive) enough, and likely wouldn't be reported by a major mainstream news source in the way you have presented them. Hubdub depends on major mainstream news sources to settle news questions.

The outcomes you listed also potentially "overlap" each other, so there could be more than one "correct answer", and the settlement date was set for less than 24-hours. Sometimes setting the settlement date is tricky, and I hope the glitches associated with that are corrected by the HD tech team soon.

It's also very helpful to include links (URL's) to "background articles" that relate to your question, so that other members can "read about the subject" before they make predictions.

Can you post your question again -- perhaps "narrowing" your question, and provide background links to relevant (news) articles, and with "outcomes" that don't overlap?

@ rogerkni -- unfortunately, a flag can currently only be used once.
After that, you can add a comment here, or by using the "Contact Us" link (located at the bottom of every page), and ask that your message be forwarded to the appropriate category editor.

(I have flagged this question for you, so there ought to be a response shortly.)

Amazing! 96% "Yes" predictions on this OPEN question, with the results virtually known! -- will have to wait another hour before this closes, and see how accurate these predictions are.

This question may need to be resettled as "No".

Total Ridership for May, 2008 = 2,577,000
Total Ridership for June, 2008 = 2,560,000

Ridership in June fell short of May by 17,000 riders... thus June was not Amtrak's "best month ever".

May: <http://www.amtrak.com/pdf/0805monthly.pdf> Page A-2.2
June: <http://www.amtrak.com/pdf/0806monthly.pdf> Page A-2.1

The furry with the singe on top. :-(

"The State of the Union is an annual message which the President of the United States gives to Congress, usually an address to a joint session of Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate). It has occurred in January (except for six occasions in February) since 1934.

"Sometimes, especially in recent years, newly-inaugurated Presidents have delivered speeches to joint sessions of Congress only weeks into their respective terms, but these are not officially considered State of the Union addresses. The address is also most frequently used to outline the President's legislative proposals for the upcoming year. For these reasons, a State of the Union address is generally not given in years in which a new president is inaugurated.

<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union>

Well ... let's see what this does to the market precentages:

NBC reports that Micheal Phelps will not attend the Closing Ceremonies.

Wow -- another market that suspends 15 minutes before the answer is known, with 99% winning predictions!

A H$10,000 wager makes wayyy more than a new user receives for joining Hubdub.

Hi sateena -- welcome to Hubdub!

While the questions of "what's with Caylee's grandparents?" is a question of significant interest, the way the question is worded makes it difficult for it to be settled objectively. Hubdub tries to settle questions based on reports in "major mainstream news sources" ... so there would need to be an authoritative source to settle this.

There also may be more than one "reason" why the grandparents waited ... so there might need to be "multiple outcomes" -- that don't "overlap" each other (so there is only ONE winning prediction at settlement time ;-)

Including a background link (URL) to a news article is also recommended, to let other members read about "what's going on", and enable them to make accurate predictions on a question.

Can you think up a question about the grandparents that is worded differently?

Jury questioning in the Phil Spector murder retrial is now set to begin Oct. 14, 2008.

Yeah -- a human interest story ... maybe someone a little inspirational ... like, I dunno, Dara Torres?

Dara Torres: The Oldest Olympic Swimming Medalist in History

"Dara Torres, 41, became the oldest swimming medalist in Olympic history on Sunday. She has twice retired from swimming and has a 2-year-old daughter, but keeps returning to the sport to add to her medal collection.

" 'The water doesn't really know what age you are, so it doesn't really matter when you hit the water what age you are,' Torres said after anchoring the U.S. team in the 4x100 meter freestyle relay, Reuters reports. 'I'm hoping that my age paves the way for other athletes, who maybe think they are too old to do something, to get back in or continue in the sport.' "

<http://www.usnews.com/blogs/planning-to-retire/2008/08/13/the-oldest-olympic-swimming-medalist-in-history.html>

This question has been reopened.

@ fingers of fury -- yeah, I knew that, but there was this category editor with an itchy finger, look'in to settle this based on your link ;-)

I would cheerlead for this question to be voided if it ties, rather than add an arbitrary "determine the winner the by value of medals" qualification, after the fact.

Also see this similar question:
<http://www.hubdub.com/m11492/How_well_will_Hubdub_predict_the_winner_of_the_2008_Presidential_Election>

@ rogerkni -- I would cheerlead for a separate question(s) to be created. I agree that the clarification that was made on how this would be settled diminishes the importance of the question, and makes it, in my view, a question more on predicting "stage presentation" than it does on "new product announcement".

Be sure to explain what you mean about "product transition", and consider multiple outcomes when creating your question ;-)

@ fingers of fury -- yeah, as a result of the "dependency hearing" that was held on August 5th -- this news just became available.

This picks up from where this left off (in comment #5), where a dependency petition was ordered (during what was supposed to be a "capacity hearing").

"Once the dependency petition is filed, state law dictates that a hearing be scheduled to hear evidence about whether Semaj and his siblings “will suffer serious abuse or neglect” if they remain with Booker.

"Should a judge find that such a danger exists, he or she then can order the kids removed from Booker’s home and placed into the custody of foster parents or a relative."
<http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/430545.html>

The judge found that there was danger, and Semaj along with his three brothers — who range from 2 to 12 years old — were taken from their mother's home after the August 5th hearing. (Sakinah Booker's youngest child, a 5-month-old girl, also was taken from the home then, but has since been returned to Booker's care.)

The capacity hearing (a hearing to determine whether Semaj could understand right from wrong when he allegedly broke into a Tacoma apartment in early July) has been postponed until Sept. 17.

Before the capacity hearing takes place, there will be at least one "first set fact-finding hearing" on Sept. 15th, with another fact-finding hearing, if necessary, on Oct. 13th.

@ pixelpaws -- yes, the question will remain suspended until one of the candidates announces their VP choice.

The conventional ;-) thinking is that because the Democratic National Convention begins on August 25th, that at least Senator Obama will announce his choice before the 25th.

I dunno -- none of the options mention "Florida" ... I read all of the options as options/outcomes for the question, "Will the weather disturbance Fay, make landfall in Florida ...". I dunno why one option would be singled out to be non-inclusive of Florida ... but I can see how some members might read it that way.

@ bigken1 -- I can totally relate! I first predicted "Other/None" ... I think because of a feeling of being jaded about things such as this (coupled with unions and tenure ;-) But, on reflection, I changed my prediction to "fired" (and doubled it just now ;-) Not only is it, in my view, the right thing to do... but there are other faculty, alumni (donors), as well as parents and students (and prospective new admissions) at stake -- and the state legislature -- all of which would, I think, place significant pressure on the University to fire the guy, even if they didn't reasonably know what to do already. Then again, the way things sometimes work, those would all be arguments for "Other/None" ;-)

@ guibraguim -- the best way to contact a category editor is by using the "Flag for review" link -- located just below the prediction options. That sends an email directly to the category editor. Posting a request in the "comments thread" is great as a secondary notice ... letting other users know what's going on, etc.

I thought it was awesome that the students remained casual and calm about it -- either sitting in their chairs, or leaning against the wall -- and there were just enough individuals who stepped forward to prevent harm or injury to all concerned. Had it been a room full of "adults", I really think the outcome would have been much different.

This suspends at 12:00 PM PDT.

BTW, her mother gets bailed out tomorrow -- $500,000 cash. (It's a TV deal I would bet.)

This may (or may not) be the article referred to in Texas Monthly.
(If it is, it probably ought be included within the market background)

State of Play
What the 2008 presidential race means for Texas.

<http://www.texasmonthly.com/2008-08-01/feature4.php>

There is, however, a significant distinction between the two examples. The impeachment process in the US involves the affirmative action of two legislative bodies (House and Senate), acting independently, while the parliamentary model in Pakistan appears to use a combined process (47.(5) "The Speaker shall summon the two Houses to meet in a joint sitting...")

The distinction is significant.

In my view, using your time line of the process would be analogous in the US to a bill being read out before the House, and declaring that because 39 Articles of Impeachment are pending in the House Judiciary Committee, which were presented to Congress by Rep Dennis Kucinich, that President Bush has been impeached.

While I appreciate your attempt to thread the needle of "defining the moment of impeachment in Pakistan", at the end of the day, impeachment has never been done in Pakistan.

I have no doubt whatsoever that numerous, varied and authoritative mainstream news sources will report if Musharraf has resigned, or if he has been impeached, or if he remains in office. As those are the settlement details that govern how this question will be settled, is there any need to try to apply a Hubdub definition that may result in being at odds with the rest of the world? ;-)

lol - dieseldog -- thanks ;-) (I didn't apply ;-)

In my view, this is not about "an irate citizen" -- rather it is the interpretations of world leaders, mainstream media, and the decision making process of Musharraf himself that ought be used to "define" impeachment for this question.

In a similar manner, the House of Representatives voted and passed Articles of Impeachment against Richard Nixon. Nixon's decision was, from one point of view, could he resign and get Marine One before the Articles reached the Senate?

In my view, Musharraf faces a similar-in-sentiment decision about resigning ... or not.

Wow! That interpretation would, in my view, declare Musharraf as impeached before any vote to impeach is taken!

Said differently, if at 47 (8), members of Parliament don't pass a resolution to impeach -- (which would mean Musharraf wasn't impeached), your interpretation would already have him impeached!

"If, after consideration of the result of the investigation, if any, a resolution is passed at the joint sitting by the votes of not less than two-thirds of the total membership... the President shall cease to hold office immediately on the passing of the resolution."

Like most parliamentary procedures, nothing changes/happens until a vote is taken.

@ guibraguim - fantástico!

This is such a good question -- from a member who joined today ((welcome vadchen ;-))
This question is, as they say in poker, the nuts as concerns the issue of Georgia and Russia!

To my read, "starting the process of granting membership" means that Georgia (along with Ukraine) would be granted "Membership Action Plans", the first step toward joining the Alliance.

[This was in the first linked reference in the background.]

'Course, even if my sense of what it means is accurate, it needs to be confirmed and endorsed by a category editor.

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Aug. 15 -- "The last of Pakistan's four provincial assemblies voted unanimously Friday in favor of impeaching President Pervez Musharraf, leaving him with few options as the threat of his ouster looms."

Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, August 16, 2008; Page A08

Read more to put this in context:
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/15/AR2008081502694.html?hpid=moreheadlines>

line breaks display AFTER refresh (go figure)

hmmm ... line breaks didn't "take" on my last comment. They did on my first comment, and on yours.

test (should be a break above this line)

*Interesting* -- I didn't know that! (first President to attend outside US) (nice prediction! ;-)

An interesting Bushism:

"The reason I'm going to the Olympics is twofold: one, to show my respect for the people of China; and two, to cheer on the U.S. team," Bush said this week. Then he thought about that for a second and reversed the order, saying pride in U.S. teams is his top motivation." (LA Times)

The commenting thing is pretty unintuitive -- or maybe I should say "hidden". Were it not for email alerts, I doubt I would ever know i there was a comment left!

And ANOTHER 94% "Yes" market today.

Only 96% winning predictions on "yes" today.

I could easily make more with one wager than what a new user on HD receives for signing up!
-- if I made predictions in this market that suspends 15 minutes before settlement!

Does Bigfoot exist? These men have evidence

San Francisco Chronicle

(08-15) 15:25 PDT Palo Alto -- Irrefutable evidence came to Palo Alto on Friday.

"It was brown and fuzzy and looked very much like irrefutable evidence of a man in a gorilla suit.

"But it wasn't, said two Georgia hikers in baseball caps who rented a hotel meeting room to tell the world that they had found the dead body of the creature known as Bigfoot...

"But the hikers did present three photographs of their find. The clearest one looked like a man in a gorilla suit.

"The fuzziest one - the one that looked like a banana inside a tortilla - depicted what Whitton said was Bigfoot's jaw. That photograph was airtight proof of the existence of something that looked like a banana inside a tortilla. ..."

<http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/15/BAFN12C0SB.DTL>

Bernie Mac's Funeral [to be] Picketed by Westboro Baptist Church

"God Hates Bernie Mac" Says Fundamentalist Christian Sect

<http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/957387/bernie_macs_funeral_picketed_by_westboro.html?cat=8>

Did I get the date wrong ;-)

(This is my first attempt at using this "comment feature"!)

@ orlin -- the best way to capture the attention of a category editor -- to make changes, or for any other reason -- is to send a flag, via the "Flag for review link".

As a follow-on to what the "impeachment" steps are, in comment #5, above, there's this:

"Musharraf's office said an impeachment could drag on for months because the procedure is not laid out in the constitution and there is no precedent in Pakistan's turbulent 61-year history."

<