nigeleccles

How about 'How certain are you? Definitely / Probably / Maybe'?

I know one thing. If Obama doesn't win the presidency there will be a severe market correction in my Hubdub portfolio!

I was amazed that he was prepared to delay the game for it. I thought that would enrage fans. I've still not seen it but hope to catch it later on.

If Obama doesn't get elected POTUS then there is a good chance he might get elected POTROW (President Of The Rest Of World)!

I think General / Weather. Natural disasters are for all non-weather related natural disasters.

I do agree that there is more than a hint of sexism in this. She would be damned if she didn't look well turned out and she is now damned that they spent some money on it. I don't actually think the incident really says anything about Palin or the GOP campaign. Anyway, there kinda of is more important stuff to focus on...

BTW I hope instead of giving the clothes to charity they auction them off (perhaps on eBay like the governor's jet) and then give the proceeds to charity. Although if elected she's going to need her new thread's.

Thanks Destry. I was curious about what happened if a VP had to step up and then serve the remainder of the presidency as to whether they could then run for 2 more terms.

I've started to think that the VP role is fairly ridiculous. Instead of having a number 2 that the president knows, trusts and compliments them, they pick someone who helps them win a state or galvanize a constituency (read Palin, Edwards, Gore, Quayle, Bush Snr etc). The LA Times has a good article on it here: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-ackerman2-2008oct02,0,2539877.story

In the UK, if we lose the PM then the deputy prime minster takes over until the ruling party has an election of serving MPs. It hasn't happened in recent times but it wouldn't take longer than a couple of months.

Generally we've founded it is better to have fewer, bigger buckets. However I think in this example it is important to split out which way the vote swings.

This is a great question although I think the odds are very low. According to our election map the best way would be the "Oregon trail". The Southern route is blocked by Arizona, Utah and Wyoming.

North Dakota looks possible and Montana an outside bet. The challenge is getting through Idaho (currently 90% McCain). I don't think it matters how we count Michigan. If Obama wins Idaho he'll easily win Indiana.

I agree about Huckabee. Huckabee always struck me as the most genuine and likable Republican candidate. I also think that even though his views are conservative, he has a good relationship with the media who give him positive coverage. McCain also used to have a great relationship with the media but he seems to have totally torpedoed that. I read his interview with Time magazine and he basically refused to answer many of the questions and would revet to talking points rather than giving an honest response. I know there is a liberal bias in most US media but I just don't think a bash the media strategy is ever going to work.

One thing though is that driving is more fun in the US. Driving in Scotland is good but London and the much of the South East of England is like crawling through one big car park.

The pump price is dropping pretty quickly in the UK as well. Although I'll not convert our prices into USD / gallon as it will make eyes water. That's one of the reasons I walk to work.

Must have been a quiet day down the cop shop.

@valorhonor I guess Biden just isn't a news story in the same way Palin is (which is good and bad for the Democrats). However his Obama will be tested comment did get picked up. The problem I see with Palin is that she resonated with people who would have voted for McCain anyway. However she must surely alienate independents and the undecided (although those that are still undecided must be very confused generally!).

I would have thought McCain would be much stronger now if he had picked Romney. In times of crisis people tend to go for experience and judgement over hope. Even Gordon Brown who is robotic but experienced is doing well in the UK. One of the risks with Romney though is that he would be painted by the Democrats as another one of the Wall Street CEO's who caused the crisis in the first place.

One thing I've always done is check if bookmakers are making a book on the market. For that I use Oddschecker. The tricky bit is converting the odds into percentages. To do that set the odds to digital then divide 1 by the odds. (e.g. 3.00 would equate to 1 / 3.00 = 33%). If our price is below the bookmakers odds then buy otherwise if it is significantly above buy the other option(s).

An alternative to that is to use Intrade (if they have the same market). Works for me (especially when predicting on something I'm clueless about).

I actually thought McCain came across pretty well in the Letterman interview. The only questionable bit was when he had to defend Sarah Palin and he kept coming back to how proud he was of her and that her husband had won several snowmobile races (?). With the disaster which was the Couric interview I really doubt they are going to let Palin up in front of Letterman.

The bar we tend to set ourselves about whether something is news or not is whether it is covered by other news sources. This story has been covered on cable news channels so it passes. Should it be considered news? That's a harder question. With the new 'hot' algorithm if many users engage in the story and make a prediction on it then it rises to the top. Otherwise it falls to the bottom and no one sees it. That way the Hubdub community gets to decide what is news and what isn't.

Poor Joe. Anyway, the NYT is saying his taxes are more likely to go down under Obama's tax plan: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17joe.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

However I am sure he can cash in on his new found celebrity taking him above the $250k a year bar. Still sounds like a good deal for Joe.

Can someone explain how Obama's tax policy affects Joe's decision whether or not to buy the business? As I understand it Obama's tax policy would increase income tax for earnings above $250k per year. Therefore, in the UK at least that would be tax on the money that Joe paid himself after he had paid his costs including the loan he is likely to need to buy the business. My question is this: If it made sense for Joe to buy the business when he was paying 36% income tax, why doesn't it make sense when he is paying 39%?

Sorry to focus on the actual details. You can get back to mud-slinging in a moment. :-)

I've edited Danny to read 'Other' to include Girlband. Despite my own perchance for the generic named group they are 150/1 with the bookies.

We are missing Girlband (http://xfactor.itv.com/finalists.htm) but they are so terrible I think they'll get the boot in the next couple of weeks. Let's keep the market open and if Girlband wins we'll void it (and then I'll leave the country).

And more importantly the emergence of silly season news means the crisis is officially over. More dog stories please!

I immediately thought "I like that idea" and then I realized we already have it! Check out: http://www.hubdub.com/?period=1day&sort=closing

I'm amazed that in the middle of a financial meltdown brought on by easy credit that you are voting for more money to slosh around the system!

...and will be past you Tom in about a couple of weeks.

Yeah, I know. I'll regret that one.

Akoha getting a lot noise on Twitter. They still haven't presented so we will see if it is just that, noise. I think Yammer, OtherInbox and Adgregate were the winners on day one.

Sarah Palin is has a 40/1 chance of having a baby with Down's syndrome. Her daughter is 1250/1 chance. Without any more information it is 31 times more likely that it is hers

http://www.ds-health.com/risk.htm

The question is of course what are the chances that someone would stuff a pillow up their jumper for several months while in high office? I think that is even more unlikely.

We have had some internal debate about this question. This has been the one exception that we have made to the rule of not modifying live markets once they are created. However in this instance the question is so high profile and this is one of our most popular pages for new users we felt it made sense to restrict the other options. The probability of neither Obama or McCain being the next president is exceptionally low.

Longer term we plan to introduce a new market type which will allow us to add outcomes as the market progresses and to show only the favorites. Unfortunately this will be several months away. After some consideration in this instance the view is keep it as only Obama and McCain. Feel free to contact me nigel [at] hubdub [dot] com if you think we are wrong on that.

I can see Clinton, Gore, Biden and whoever McCain's VP potentially should be included. Let me discuss this with the team.

No announcement that I know of but someone is taking huge punts on other. Intrade is very volatile but Biden is still the 45% favorite there followed by Clark at 13% and then Bayh at 12%. No liquidity on Betfair.

Ah, very strategic

Do you know something we don't...?

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/8/google-takes-60-of-search-market-while-msn-loses-share

I'm doubling up on this one...

hope you are right - i am following you,,,

You might be betting too much. On these early markets betting a lot significantly moves the price. On your 10 bets what it is showing is the price you would get if you cashed out now. The bigger the bet the lower the price you will get (as it moves the market more).

Thanks - I've edited the question and changed the suspend date/time

Buying McCain at 40% - ballsy

To be settled as yes it is required that the two units are separated (even if that is within the same company).

It was a quick arb from Intrade

This is so cool. I wish I had seen the last launch. We should definitely have a virtual party for the next one.

Elon Musk is a hero - he will make it work.

BTW To convert digital odds (i.e. where 2.00 is an evens bet) into percentages what you do is divide 1 by the odds. Therefore:
2.00 equals 1 / 2.00 = 0.5 (50%)
3.00 equals 1 / 3.00 = 0.33 (33%)
etc

To convert fractional odds into digital just add a 1 to the decimal form. E.g. 6/4 = 1.5 which equals 2.5 in digital

@kruijs

Very good points. One clarification, Betfair is a betting exchange so does offer betting (I used to work for them).

Seen it. Amazing he managed to wind the smugometer down to only 'slightly nauseating' for a full 90 minutes.

Techno optimist!

I considered a number of factors before settling this as 'Shut down'. Firstly as a predominantly US news site, Scrabulous is shut down for the vast majority of our users. It can still be accessed in other countries but if we defined not being shut down as being accessible by at least one person then that would become absurd.

Secondly, across the three options 'Shut down' is closest to the current outcome. It clearly doesn't remain 'operational' for the majority of its users.

Thoughts?

LOL - this is hilarious. We need someone who has had both a Russian wife and a non-Russian wife to give us the conclusive answer. (Only joking, this is a voider!)

BTW There is a article on the site about Google Knol. It is in Dutch but there is one line in English:

NOTE: We sell steamcleaning equipment and don't sell our domain !!

(http://www.knol.com/nieuws/knol-in-de-media/google-werkt-aan-knol.html)

Go Knol!!!

Ha ha! Never link blind! I've fixed it now but I must say those Dutch cleaning machines look more fun than pediatric sports injuries (front page on Knol)!

If Apple release two or more products at the same event we will settle this as the first product announced.

Suspended due to breaking news: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/29/endgame-scrabulous-gets-wiped-off-facebook/

If there is no further news then we would have to void it. We would probably wait until the end of August before making that decision.

This article (http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/36947/118/) suggests they have been selling the clone since April however a Guardian article (http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/04/15/so_exactly_who_or_what_is_psystar_we_dig_a_little.html) questions if they even exist. Anyone got any more details on this one?

Yes they are.

Totally disappointed. It is not as if there isn't enough knickerless celebrities to go around! I'm sure Craigslist has Lindsay at least, maybe even a Britney.

I'll re-open it if it takes longer.

I've just found out knickerless celebrities aren't the only thing they are pretending to sell. Anyone for buying 'Steve Irwin dead'?

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/09/05/ebay_steve_irwin/

We voided other questions about registrations because they were too easy to game. This question isn't easy to game. It would require a user to create 100's of accounts to swing. If a user where to do that we would spot it. Therefore I think this question is fine.

But now TechCrunch says they are doing better: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/18/microsoft-searches-jump-15-after-live-cashback-launch/

I'm still betting they go South.

I would concur with Skipper on this one. Let me confirm with Jeff.

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/7/report-facebook-isn-t-launching-payment-system-next-week

I'm going with Silicon Alley Insider. They have a good track record on predictions (see http://punditwatch.hubdub.com).

This is a AFP report that they claim a Brazilian newspaper and Digg (!?) are reporting. They don't link to the original sources. Does anyone have a more reliable settlement source?

http://venturebeat.com/2008/07/15/google-pushes-towards-70-percent-of-all-us-searches-yahoo-microsoft-going-the-other-way/

Things going South for MS...

In your dreams fanboys!

AllThingsD is pointing at TechCrunch: http://kara.allthingsd.com/20080711/paidcontents-rafat-ali-speaks-so-heres-whos-next/

That's where my money is going...

mrchimp's comments have been deleted as they are offensive (he clearly isn't very happy).

Oh yeah, not much I am sure. Just. Don't. Mention. Southpark.

I can't comment about the starting odds on this one. I will leave it to the market to decide that.

heat in winter

:-)

Market looks good to me. Great picture BTW.

I think Obama is a man of the people and therefore will steer clear of pure breeds. I think he really needs a big dog although he's got two daughters and they might sway him into getting something girly like a poodle. Still I am sure his PR guys would veto that. I think the leader of the free world can't go wrong with a nice black labrador.

aha - I win!!! Lesley loses. 1 - 0 to me!

I don't believe they have released something that would constitute a response to the iPhone. More discussion here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/what_constitutes_as_nokias_version_of_the_iphone?utm_content=topic_link&utm_medium=email&utm_source=reply_notification

I've added the video from the stop the LHC campaign. Not sure if I fully agree with the campaign but the video is cool.

Don't worry I cashed in straight after :-p

What I expect isn't always the same as what I want but in this instance they are aligned :-)

I assume you know your celeb news...

The market is going against him but people always over-bet on stuff happening. Often nothing happens...

You dick - you just challenged me on a market I can't make a prediction on because I made it less than 12 hours ago!

No news so far therefore I have extended the suspend date to the end of the year (I made a mistake in my earlier clarification)

From my experience Alexa doesn't modify data more than 7 days previous so I think we are safe to re-settle as Predictify. As a side note, I have a new niece (2 weeks old) called Alexa. It is a lovely name but I am struggling with making the adjustment from thinking Alexa = wonky web analytics tool to Alexa = baby niece!

I've noticed this a couple of times before where Alexa adjusts their numbers at a later date (please someone build a better daily visitor tracking service!). We settled this on the first set of data available which showed Hubdub ahead (as noted by Jenni). I am undecided about whether we should re-settle. In entertainment we re-settle if the winner is subsequently changed however for earthquakes we settle on preliminary data.

Unsuspended so the remaining open part of the question (will Guinness establish the record) can be traded

Still not seen this reported but it will be. Keep an eye out for it.

This is inclusive of all iPhone sales including international and 3G

Good point though about the suspend time - I've moved it so that the market suspends 5 minutes before the 24 hour period is up. Now that's fixed can someone at Mozilla boot up another server (or 20) so I can get my copy!

As I noted in the clarifications (but didn't copy over) this only refers to the US. The iPhone was available through other carriers outside the US at the time of question creation therefore it would not make sense to include other countries.

Any information about whether this was announced or not? If so please ping me via a settlement request.

Twitter didn't go down however a small percentage of users did lose connectivity for a period. We had to make a call on this one but this minor outage doesn't really compare to previous complete failures. Other critics such as TechCrunch considered it a pass: http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/06/10/twitter-fails-to-fail-community-rejoices/

It is a close decision. The literal interpretation would be probably be Yes but I thought it better to interprete the spirit of the question. Escalate to Get Satisfaction?

It will be settled as who the BBC announces who the next doctor is (as per the settlement details). If it goes into 2009 then the suspend date should be extended.

We will settle at the outcome that is closest to the actual price (as per the settlement details)

This has got to be a cert. http://www.istwitterdown.com/ is a great place to check.

Great question!

ComScore didn't release their data until 15th of May last time so I think it is safe to let this market run into the first week of June.

Oh one other thing to watch with Alexa is they sometimes show sharp drops/spikes on the last day recorded. This subsequently gets corrected when it is updated. One to watch. Also if you want to use a tool bar to track Alexa rankings I would recommend http://www.quirk.biz/searchstatus/. It only works for Firefox but is a really light plug-in which gives lots of info. I wouldn't recommend the Alexa toolbar, it is bloated with stuff you won't want/need.

I'm now reviewing this question so I have suspended it. I've read all the comments here and emails from users and super users. I still need to fully discuss it with Ryan however I think we will probably have to void this one. This should be resolved by 9pm this evening (UK time).

Note we will settle this market on the results shown for May 31st even if we have to wait a couple of weeks for it. If Alexa is really dead then we will have to void the market (I think it is unlikely that they are dead)

I would assume given the background this is restricted to first names only. Valornhonor to clarify?

Stonking good question. I now eagerly anticipate Angelina popping!

We will settle as Yes if the majority of the founding team moves to the US

No need to apologise - it is a relevant and topical question (and I'm with you on PayPal...)

BTW I've decided to exclude myself from predicting on this one.

http://www.inquisitr.com/miley-cyrus-caught-again

I believe that this was prior to the question creation and therefore shouldn't be counted (but boy, there is no way I would bet yes on this question!)

@seanglass

Glad to see you drop by. To be honest, I created this market to test out embedding the Alexa widget and I also thought it would be a bit of fun to include companies in a similar space that had a similar Alexa ranking. I agree that Hubdub and Pikum are very different.

See you at the end of May - in our rear view mirror! :-)

As per the background we would only settle as a yes if the phone doesn't have the word iPhone in it. I personally think that would be highly unlikely given they are still selling iPods 7 years later.

I can't find sales figures on this. NPD report monthly however that only includes 5 days of the release period. Anyone else know? If you find them fire over a settlement request with them. Thanks!

My money is on the turkey. Come on Dustin!

Just added some more background. And I'm listening to CKUA. It's great! Although it feels strange listening to the graveyard shift at 10am in the morning.

If you want to check out the vibe in Edinburgh try http://www.forthone.co.uk/. What stations does everyone else listen to?

Technically, this question is in breach of the rules as it depends on a Google search number (which can depend on who conducts the search). However I think we should let it run. Destry, I assume you are going to exclude yourself from making predictions and provide us with the final answer?

While there is a lot of media interest in this deal I doubt if a "mainstream news source" will report whether the Microsoft logo appears on the Yahoo homepage. We will need a screenshot to settle as a Yes, otherwise we will settle as a No.

That wouldn't count as an acquisition. That is covered under the question rules item 2.3.4 http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion

Anyone willing to admit they watched some of the earlier shows. It would be great to have some insight into their current 'form'!

@randburg

On tightening the ship. I totally agree. We've come a long way in three months (I remember when Get Satisfaction seemed more active than Hubdub) but there is still a lot we need to work on.

@randburg

That is really interesting. One of the reasons we opted for play money over real money is that most people aren't comfortable with gambling (that reason and also we didn't want to go to jail!). With play money we could then challenge people by saying "Well if you are so confident, why not place your prediction on record?". The people who will have the most to lose are the professional pundits. We actually have something in development which will track some of the top pundits in politics, entertainment, business and technology. It should be released in the next couple of weeks.

Thanks everyone for highlighting your concerns about gaming of these markets. I've looked through the registration profiles of the last 500 new registrations and there is no evidence of gaming (including sexybaby, you guys should friend her and find out :-). We have had a surge new registrations over the past 2 weeks (hurrah!) which has been down to three things:
1. More people have been getting their friends to register (thanks! Keep spreading the word)
2. We got mentioned by Leo Laporte last Saturday. Leo is an A-list tech journalist who does the awesome This Week in Tech podcast
3. We were on the front page of Reddit yesterday (you may have seen the site slow down slightly as we dealt with the 12,000 new visitors they sent us - we've tuned the system so we can better handle that now)

We hope this is the start of much faster user growth so shoot high in your subsequent predictions!

Thanks everyone for highlighting your concerns about gaming of these markets. I've looked through the registration profiles of the last 500 new registrations and there is no evidence of gaming (including sexybaby, you guys should friend her and find out :-). We have had a surge new registrations over the past 2 weeks (hurrah!) which has been down to three things:
1. More people have been getting their friends to register (thanks! Keep spreading the word)
2. We got mentioned by Leo Laporte last Saturday. Leo is an A-list tech journalist who does the awesome This Week in Tech podcast
3. We were on the front page of Reddit yesterday (you may have seen the site slow down slightly as we dealt with the 12,000 new visitors they sent us - we've tuned the system so we can better handle that now)

We hope this is the start of much faster user growth so shoot high in your subsequent predictions!

kevinrose ups the ante. Here is his Tweet below (he is catching up):

kevinrose The new iphone is coming, I'm giving my old one to a random person following me on twitter - details coming on diggnation - tell friends!
http://twitter.com/kevinrose

@dieseldog the race is just between the named Twitterers and also Obama won't win now

Still trying to find a news report on this. Can anyone else find anything? Any CIA spies on the ground? 1 tank, 2 tanks, 3 tanks :-)

I guess we should give it till Monday otherwise we will have to void.

We are still waiting for the T-shirts to come back from the suppliers. We are trying out two companies so we can compare quality. Should be settled within the next week.

Just to clarify by asked to make an apology do you mean by a national newspaper, another politician or by anyone? I think a national newspaper is probably the best measure.

http://mashable.com/2008/05/09/who-woulda-thunk-it-google-still-wants-deal-with-yahoo/

Brin and Schmidt seem to still want to be friends with Yahoo. Not, clear if this turns into a deal though.

Leo Laporte has got to be the strong favorite. He has the chance to plug this on the TWiT show every week. That is unless Kevin plugs it on Diggnation and then we won't see him for dust. The other possibility is that Scoble turns his tweeting down to, say, only 100 a day and then everyone that un-followed him comes back and he romps home!

Silicon Alley Insider also think it is credible: http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/5/microsoft_buying_facebook_not_as_silly_as_you_think

Immortal line: Zuckerberg is smart enough to know that, the moment the "Microsoft-Facebook talks" leak hits the Wall Street Journal, Eric Schmidt is going to be bounding up and down on his front stoop with a counter-offer like a labrador.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-yahoo7-2008may07,0,264309.story

Shareholder revolt but doesn't look there is enough time to get the pitchforks out!

We are waiting to see if Tsvangirai accepts a second round before we go to settle. Still unclear if he will.

Yes, I'll also extend it to the date of the vote (need to find that out first).

I've extended the suspend date to the end of May. Let me know if you want me to pull the suspend date back a couple of days.

(Lesley's computer is broken so I'm World editor for the day)

Yes, that is in the settlement details.

We made an exemption on this case because it was such a big news story. It is being discussed in pretty much all the big tech blogs after Microsoft pulling out of the deal.

I guess it would be a dollar a word :-)

Steep discount on the price if they are really funny...

I would like one with "On strike from Hubdub" and a picture of the gnome sleeping under the tree.

http://twitter.com/ev/statuses/801530348

Evan Williams responds...

Don't want to affect the price on this one but...

To be honest we aren't very happy with the current default sorting mechanism (most active). It rates questions that are 95% plus too highly. Also it has a tendency to make the homepage a bit static and causes good questions to get buried in the later pages. Here are three alternatives we are considering to 'most active':
1. Sort by most number of users making predictions on that questions in that time period e.g. 12 users made predictions on this question in the past 12 hours (this might produce a similar list to most active)
2. Sort by positive change in trading volume over a 24 hour period therefore if a question traded H$20,000 in one 24 hour period and then H$30,000 in the next period it would have a rating of H$30,000 (this would cause questions to get picked up out of the back pages then get more trading as they hit the front page finally to pop in a kinda supernova and drop back to the back pages. It would also result in some questions cyclically appearing on the front page)
3. Sort by [trading activity] * [favorite %] * [100% - favorite %] e.g. a question with H$10,000 in trading activity trading at 50% would therefore rate at H$10,000 * 50% * 50% = H$2,500. That would rate more highly than a question with H$50,000 trading at 95% (H$50,000 * 95% * 5% = H$2,350) (this would remove a lot of the 95% plus questions from the front page)

I quite like some combination of (2) and (3). Any other suggestions?

When did the last Popemobile go up for auction? Any information on the make, model and year of his current land cruiser?

http://www.reuters.com/article/industryNews/idUSN2929900020080429

Apparently Cablevision might make a joint bid as well.

Lots of support for Red Ken around here. Much more than at the bookies. Paddy Power have Boris at 2/7 and Ken at 9/4:
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=8543

(To translate that into percentages; 2/7 means 7 chances in 9 therefore about 68%. 9/4 means 4 chances in 13 therefore about 31%)

That is in what us Brits call pants. Americans would call them underpants. Divided by a common language indeed. I'll update the settlement rules.

Not at all. I got Tom to research the question :-)

"All hat and no cattle", thats brilliant. I lived in Texas 3 years ago but I can't say I heard that one.

This could be a tough one to settle considering that all the companies are private. I am sure there is some way we could find out an estimate though...

Great question! I am currently travelling on Web Mission (www.webmission08.com) with Mark Prisk (www.markprisk.com) who is MP for Herford & Stortford and shadow minister for Business and Enterprise. I'll be working on him tomorrow to see if I can get him to sign up (and publically admit it!)

It appears that Angelina and Brad still aren't married therefore they would have to marry and then divorce for it to be them (Paddy Power are still taking bets on them though). It is a good question therefore I propose to keep it open.

After a user complaint I've removed the offensive comment exchange above. I'm not going to try to disentangle who started just please try to remain civil to each other, there are plenty of things to disagree on (politics, religion, sport?) without getting personal.

Please note that this conversation is bordering on breaching article 5 of our terms of service: "you agree not to use the Services: 1. to abuse, harass, impersonate, intimidate or threaten other Hubdub users". I am happy to start deleting comments but I hope that you can resolve your differences without resorting to that.

Thanks

Previously, we didn't have an agreed procedure in place to deal with gaming. Here is what we are proposing:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming

Let me know what you think.

Let's keep this civil.

After we were notified by a number of users that Satyaki was gaming markets we investigated to find that he had indeed created questions which he had subsequently made large predictions that indicated that the starting estimates were way out. We were slow in picking this up initially as our knowledge of Indian cricket leagues isn't great. In Satyaki's defence the questions were made (using his own account) some time in advance of the predictions. However it is fairly clear that this still counts as gaming.

After we concluded that Satyaki had been gaming we put him on the watch list which then shows up on his profile. This will remain on his profile for 2 weeks. If there are no further incidents of gaming then it will be removed. If there is his account will be fined.

We were slightly reluctant in releasing the public watch list marker as we don't want to create lynch mob justice. By all means make it clear that you don't appreciate gaming however don't let it get personal. Satyaki has been an active contributor to Hubdub over the past couple of months (and not just Roadies questions!). I expect he will emerge from the two weeks of purgatory a reformed character.

http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/04/01/googleskype-acquisition-or-partnership-imminent/

TechCrunch thinks the deal could be imminent.

Missing May because I am a clown. I'll recreate this with May now. Sorry about that.

Compete is showing Digg unique user growth to be flat since last June. With the launch of Yahoo Buzz they may have missed their exit window...

Hi Rohan, sounds like you need to refresh your browser. Let me know if that doesn't work.

OK, this question is a potential spitzer. pics4d has contacted us requesting his account be deleted. That request was placed in a queue and was to be actioned this evening. If pics4d wants to retract his account deletion then he needs to contact us again (http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact). If that occurs in the next 24 hours we will not delete his account and settle this question as 'he changes his mind...'

BTW We have just released shouts. Go to one of your friends profiles and you can send them a shout. Have fun!

Andrew is now reviewing whether this settlement was made in error.

First off, I'm sorry that you are leaving. I'll be the first to admit that we've screwed up a number of times in the past week so I understand the reasons why. I totally respect the amount of time and advice we have been given by you and other users on the site. The site is in beta but we aspire it to be a lot better.

On the clarifications we introduced that as early on a lot of users were getting frustrated about the number of questions that were getting voided due to vague settlement conditions. The clarifications were introduced in order to reduce that, however they are obviously introducing the problems. It seems like if there is any significant uncertainty then it would be better just to void the question. Do you agree?

On the speed of response, I wasn't aware there was an issue here. The contact form (http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact) is manned 7 days a week and in general you should get a response within hours (depending on the time of day).

Category editors only have one user name and that hasn't changed since the launch. Identifying editors is on the feature list but slipped in priority to get other elements out. I will re-prioritise it now.

Any suggestion that Craigslist is potentially for sale? Not sure why they would be. They are highly profitable and owned by private individuals who have never shown any inclination to cash in (quite the opposite in fact).

Proposed resolution here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/contentious_questions_proposed_resolution

Proposed resolution here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/contentious_questions_proposed_resolution

Sorry, I should have been clearer in my earlier comment with regards this question. I want to keep this question open as I think it is provoking an important debate however the question itself will be settled as a void (as it is equivalent of the 'Will this question be settled yes?').

http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/escalation_what_color_is_this_tie

Let me know what you think...

I can't believe it! It's purple (I'm color blind so I have had to have Rob to verify it). Unfortunately it looks like we are going to have to void this one...

As it stand the answers aren't mutually exclusive. However it seems that most users have assumed that if he resigns after the 16th but before the 23rd then we would settle it as answer b. Unless there is strong disagreement, we will settle it that way.

I have recategorised this question into the Hubdub category.

Unfortunately, structurally this question is essentially the same as the "Will this question be settled as a Yes?" type question which we had to ban (see 2.3.5 in the rules: http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion). However, I think the debate and discussion here is highly valuable and therefore I will keep the question open until the suspend date.

Also note we have made some amendments to the rules last night, in particular it is worth looking at section 2.2.5. If by the start of next week there is a strong consensus that certain types of question should be banned then we will update the rules with that regard. If, as I expect there might be, a clear difference in opinion then we will see if we can work out some more minor rule amendments (e.g. questions involving death must be worded in a particular way) and additional functionality (e.g. tabloid section, tagging of questions referring to death etc).

Yep, MySpace would have won for February.

This question needs an end date. We will assume it to be within 6 months of creation.

This question may have to be voided as the answers are not mutually exclusive. Visitor numbers dropped by 9,000 which is less than 5%. I will review it again tomorrow.

Highest percentage change, therefore if Facebook shrinks by 4% and MySpace by 6% then Facebook is the winner.

All, thanks for your comments.

I have created a question on Get Satisfaction to discuss whether the rules should be amended so that questions like this would be voided. We aim to make Hubdub community led and decisions like this need agreement before we can proceed. Give your views here:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/contentious_questions_part_3

Small bomb hits NY Times Square

An explosive device has caused minor damage to a military recruitment centre on New York City's Times Square.

The centre was empty and no-one was injured in the pre-dawn blast, which smashed a glass window...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7280963.stm

Sounds like protestors, no self-respecting terrorist would plant a 'small bomb' capable of smashing a glass window. Maybe it was a water bomb?

http://www.news.com/8301-13577_3-9885424-36.html

New COO and no word of a CEO change. I think he is safe for another 12 months.

Hi Randburg,

I'm not sure why you think this one is rigged. I set this estimate when I created the question in mid-January. We had just raised our seed round of financing and were preparing for launching the site at DEMO. The 90% estimate I thought was a reasonable estimate. The fact that it hasn't moved much since then would suggest it wasn't far off.

The investigation seems to be centered here: http://federalism.typepad.com/crime_federalism/2008/03/david-motari-ab.html

Any news on whether the track has been re-opened? The latest news seems to be from February 17th.

Suspend date has been extended to the end of the year

I just got a note back from Compete. There stats tend to be released no later than a week and half after the end of the month. Therefore I have extended the suspension time.

It's quite simple. We don't make predictions on Hubdub questions that we have inside information on.

It means drop below 20,000 troops as defined in the settlement details. I put that in as there could be a very long period of having non-combat troops in the country.

I don't have slightest problem with people making predictions on my mortality. I have life insurance which means I am already betting a small amount each month that I kick the bucket.

However there are two problems with this question:

1. According to UK government statistics (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=9552) around there are about 0.9 deaths in a 1,000 for males aged 25-34. Now I need to add that the possibility that I might be at an increased risk because I created a website that allows people to share their views. Incidents of murder incited on the internet are actually extremely rare (although Wired tends to document them, one here: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/6.12/murder.html) and therefore the impact of that is immaterial. Therefore the correct estimate for this question should be 0.09% * 2 weeks / 52 weeks = 0.0034%.

2. We are quite explicit in the Terms of Service and the FAQs that users are not "to abuse, harass, impersonate, intimidate or threaten other Hubdub users" (Section 5 of the Terms). I am a user of the site and this obviously breaches those rules. (Which does raise the interesting question that if Britney became a Hubdub user we would have to void a number of questions related to her!)

Therefore for those two reasons I am voiding this question.

I have removed a comment above as it contravened item 5 of our terms of service with regards threatening other users: http://www.hubdub.com/public/terms

So as not to be accused of censorship here is the remainder of the post:

cbfolsom122:
Free speach? Then why is the President not allowed to speak about religion? Why was Romney persecuted by CNN and MSNBC for being a Mormon (1st Amendment right to freedom of religion). You people sicken me hiding behind a computer betting on how many of my friends will die.

smidge you brought up some great points; however it is not predicting the news when 0 is not an answer you can choose from. It is WISHING DEATH upon American soldiers.

robmaguire-seeing as bombs can be dropped without killing a single person I dont see where the hypocricacy lies. If you dare to spread some more trashy lies look no further than the Bill Clinton cover up of Monica as he FINALLY bombed Al Qaeda after their 6th attack on the U.S. under his watch. The operation known as Operation Infinite Reach was only a political ploy. Had nothing to do with retaliation or the destruction of a known terrorist organization. How about Clinton in that bombing LYING about a pharmacuetical company that he blew up. It has no ties to terrorism anad much of the evidence was fabricated. But hey your question I assume isn't about politics?

See I know a lot more about politics then you ever will and I know that President Bush is a find upstanding American who has sent American troops into harms way hoping that we can have ZERO fatalities but also realizing that is a hard to come by number if not impossible. You only wish to make a mockery of the American system and hide behind the first amendment.

Let me guess conservative talk show hosts have no right to the first amendment and you support the "Fairness Doctrine?"

[Comment removed]

Updating my prev comment it should have included wounded as well (Battle of Gettysburg).

We're hoping to add that number to a metrics box on the home page soon. The other way is to lose all your H$'s and you will be at the very bottom of the leaderboard which will tell you the number :-)

Slipping 40% in a month would suggest something was up. I've seen the report on Boom Town about management changes but it is very specific that it is for roles reporting to Zuckerberg. Looks very suspicious though. Any one got any more info?

I've put in the requested end date/time and put in a clarification on how this will be settled. Great question. One thing to think about is the terminology of 'correctly predict'. To see how this can back fire check out this blog post: http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/01/10/prediction-markets-get-hit-in-the-clinton-bounce-back/

Also, my thinking is that the price of the yes on this market should move in line with the price of the favorite in the F1 question. Therefore bet on No!

LOL - that's brilliant. I think the odds are probably out but you never know with Dick swinging the gun.

This question was for notification rather than trading. I have suspended it and will void it in a couple of days. We are proposing to introduce some rules and common understandings. Proposed rules are here:
http://blog.hubdub.com/2008/02/08/rules-and-common-understandings-v01-for-discussion/

Discussion is here:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/help_rules_and_common_mis_understandings

E-trade was easily the funniest. I don't even remember half the other ones...

I'm not sure if we can really objectively settle this question. I was thinking that I run a random number generator to pick a random day between now and the question close date. Then run the check on that day and settle the question. Thoughts?

Unfortunately I have had to void this question. Sports events shouldn't have a prospone option as if the event doesn't take place it is only fair that it is voided.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/02/business/media/02cnd-writers.html

It could be over pretty soon.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/technology/04yahoo.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Looks like Microsoft is still the only game in town.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22980237/

Here is the news story. It is based on an unnamed source so isn't really strong enough for us to settle it.

Thanks for everyone's responses on this. A couple of you have also brought up the issue of gaming which we are looking into and should have something to share with you by Monday.

With regards to settlement, it feels to me the general rule should be that no one person should be both referee and participant. That obviously creates a conflict of interest.

However in resolving if the people who settle questions can make predictions I want a solution that scales. We've always known that having a team of administrators settle every question does not scale and had planned to open up this process to trusted users (we've thought up a few ways to ensure accuracy and timeliness). If we decide now that anyone who settles any question shouldn't be allowed to make a prediction on any question then users who wanted to settle questions could not make predictions. I don't think we would have many volunteers.

Therefore I propose that category editors will not make predictions in their own category. As I am a point of escalation across all categories I will bar myself from predicting in any category (I was falling off the leaderboard anyway!)

Additionally it should be transparent to everyone which user ids are part of the Hubdub team. Therefore all user ID's from Hubdub team members will be clearly indicated.

Over the next few weeks we should be able to start to share with you how we plan to open settlement up.

This is a clear typo. I've fixed it to 2008.

OK, no real consensus on this but there definitely is a distinct majority which agrees that voiding in this instance is the best solution. The end date should not be used as guide to the question settlement but we obviously need to make that clearer. By the end of Monday we should have page up with common understandings and conventions so that should make this clearer.

With regards to category editors playing in the markets; while category editors have been totally objective in settling markets, I can see that some users perceive that might be otherwise. Therefore I am going to place that under review. I'll put up a question on the Get Satisfaction notice board and you can comment there if you feel strongly one way or the other.

After the situation on the Edwards question, I think this question is liable to be a void for a couple of reasons:
(1) There is no definition of what a "clear front runner" is
(2) It is not clear what happens if the pre-condition is not met. If a pre-condition isn't met I believe the question should be settled as void because it is impossible to settle that question (this is actually referred to in Q6 of the Questions section of the FAQs)

Thoughts?

Hi all,

We have a dispute on the settlement of this question. I have agreed with the user to publish our email exchange (minus personal details of course). The options are to (1) Let the settlement stand or (2) Void the question which would mean losing predictions would have their stakes returned but winners would retain winnings. Let me know what you think.

Here is the exchange:

Subject: Settlement Dispute
Message:
In reference to:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_long_will_Cpl_Laurean_be_on_the_run_147
I entered my prediction only 2 days ago! T