paul444
Net worth: H$3,799
Predictions made: 453
male, from Florida, United States. Member since Wed 6th Aug
Comments
paul444 left these comments.
I'm not sure your example is quite the same since the cessation of smoking could happen any time over the period of 24 hours. He will either say it or not, and if not, that will be the day it ceased. My concern is what to do if he doesn't do it on Inauguration Day, out of respect or whatever, and picks it back up the day after. Thoughts?
RE: percentages. Difficult for me to apply. 5% before because he may defer to Obama's pending inauguration and Bush's lame duckedness (?!) in the days leading up to the Inauguration. 50% on Inauguration Day because the whole shtick maybe was only a slam at Bush. 45% after Inauguration Day because it's being used as heat to get the Commander In Chief to remove troops from Iraq.




